WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[Fyzn94]

Category 5 - Winds 160 mph - Pressure 935 hPa

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.7N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.7N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 132.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 899.0mb/152.0kt

wow

[senorpepr]

I'm on my tablet, which does some weird formatting when copying/pasting JTWC bulletins, but I'll post this from the 21Z...

REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 132.4E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA IS APPROACHING THE END OF A 12 HOUR EPISODE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPECCABLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH BEAUTIFUL SYMMETRY AND A TIGHT PINHOLE 11 NM EYE. A 301718Z AMSRE IMAGE PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF THE INTENSITY AND SYMMETRY IN THE EYEWALL. IT ALSO SHOWS NO SIGN OF A SECONDARY, OUTER EYEWALL FORMING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BRAKING MECHANISM TO THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY, RESULTING IN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES AND 6.0 (90) KNOTS FROM RJTD. THE SPECTACULAR INTENSIFICATION SINCE 300000Z WAS FACILITATED BY THE PILING ON OF DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO AN ALREADY WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT SINCE THE GENITIVE STAGES. UNTIL YESTERDAY, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAD BEEN IMPEDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT YESTERDAY, IMPINGEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT EASED. THEN NEAR 300000Z, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL OPENED UP WHILE ANOTHER CHANNEL DEVELOPED TO THE EAST, INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE TUTT. STY 11W NOW HAS A SINGULAR EXHAUST POINT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. THE TUTT CELL HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR TAIWAN AND OPENING ON THE STORM, WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BRING A RETURN TO A SLOWER, MORE STEADY RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. STY 11W IS ON A POLEWARD TRACK IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS BEEN DISPLACED ALL THE WAY TO THE DATELINE. A WEAK PUSH IS BEING PROVIDED ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BY AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AS STY 11W CLEARS THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST OF NORTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLOW, ERRATIC MOVEMENT ALONG A NET NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH LATITUDE), THE RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BECOME THE STEERING FORCE, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, GUIDANCE ZEROS IN ON A TRACK CLOSE TO OKINAWA. THE INTENSITY TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW AND STEADY UP TO THE POINT OF THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE DECLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FUNCTION OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH TAU 72, AS THEY ARE IN NEARLY EXACT AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE TWO DIVERGE, WITH THE ECMWF VORTEX TRACKER STEERING THE STORM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS STRIKES THE NORTHERN TIP OF OKINAWA. CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED POLEWARD BY GFDN AND GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 WILL BE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THE SCENARIO DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR OKINAWA. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS (PARTICULARLY STIPS 11) INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[P.K.]

The 21Z JTWC advisory confirms what I expected that the JMA still have this as a T6.0 hence the 95kts in the last advisory. This could be down to the rapid development breaking the Dvorak constraints but I can't be sure of this.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Oh, that's an UGLY UGLY scenario for Okinawa.

[Battlebrick]

sort of off topic, but this was the ADT 8.0 for Monica:


Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 193300 UTC
Lat : 11:18:54 S Lon : 135:33:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 868.6mb/170.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22.1km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0

Eye Temp : +16.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : CLEAR EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF

[KWT]

WOW...WOW!

Whats an amazing typhoon, looks like the call for a powerful system is the right one, no doubt its a 140-150kts system at the moment!!

Track still looks worrying, I expect it to be a very large system by the time it gets close to land, probably very Ike like...

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive typhoon. Wouldn't surprise me if it had 160 knot winds and central pressure of 885 millibars.

[KWT]

Amazing how the JWTC think its a 115KTS system, I've never seen a 115kts look as good as this does to be honest.

Very large area needs to keep watch of this system...

[senorpepr]

Amazing how the JWTC think its a 115KTS system, I've never seen a 115kts look as good as this does to be honest.

Very large area needs to keep watch of this system...

Check the bulletin again... JTWC has it at 140G170 kt

[KWT]

Ahhhh...senorpepr I was just looking at the warning that was posted abovbe which has it at 115kts with gusts to 140kts...

Fair enough though!

[senorpepr]

Ahhhh...senorpepr I was just looking at the warning that was posted abovbe which has it at 115kts with gusts to 140kts...

Fair enough though!

Haha, that's what I suspected. I was going to post the correct bulletin, but my tablet likes to word-wrap them into one large block of text. The graphic posted above is correct though.

[KWT]

To be fair if I'd paid attention to the 1200z that is in the intial warning I wouldn't have made that mistake.

140kts sounds pretty reasonable, its amazing how this system has exploded, I wouldn't be shocked if the estimates a touch low given the tiny inner core...

[HURAKAN]

eye can't get any smaller or it will be a giant tornado!! wow

[StormingB81]

So I wake up and JTWC tells me Thursday the storm could be 17 NM from us with winds between 140-165 mph....WOW!

[KWT]

Its got a Wilma eye, pressure probably close to 875mbs at the moment I reckon, almost unreal look to it!

[apocalypt-flyer]

Its got a Wilma eye, pressure probably close to 875mbs at the moment I reckon, almost unreal look to it!

Yeah, that'd be my estimation, too. Absolutely incredible. It's been quite a while since I've seen something like this.

[phwxenthusiast]

So I wake up and JTWC tells me Thursday the storm could be 17 NM from us with winds between 140-165 mph....WOW!

i'm just wondering, how is the enivonment there right now (social), what i mean is do the people even know there's a potential super typhoon heading your way?? what about shops, news, etc??? if i was there i'd probably be panicking already lol!

17 NM, you're right in the path of the strongest winds!!!

[neospaceblue]

So I wake up and JTWC tells me Thursday the storm could be 17 NM from us with winds between 140-165 mph....WOW!

i'm just wondering, how is the enivonment there right now (social), what i mean is do the people even know there's a potential super typhoon heading your way?? what about shops, news, etc??? if i was there i'd probably be panicking already lol!

17 NM, you're right in the path of the strongest winds!!!

By Thursday, I doubt it will still be this powerful. It could be a monster still, but probably not the beast it is right now.