ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SeminoleWind]

BAMs really receded on their 18z run, with none of them showing clear recurve unlike the previous run.

?

The tvcn takes a sharp ene turn at the end of that run?

[vbhoutex]

definetly see another low in there...to the west around 49N....not looking at the east convection.....FWIW this thing is hauling west....

I haven't looked at much of anything except what is posted here so far today. What I see is a system trying to consolidate, generating more and more convection, but moving rather quickly for consolidation to occur soon. When I say soon, I mean less than 24 hours. I think it is almost a given that this will eventually be Emily based on models and progs by the professionals. One inhibitor is the dry air, which it either has to outrun or simply overcome to really begin the stronger development process. JMHO

['CaneFreak]

Welcome! Unfortunately, I would have to disagree that this is moving NW...this is moving almost due west...probably 280 or 285...but I agree with most of the rest of your post...my take is that it will be just off the SE Bahamas in several days and will likely result in a loss of sleep for many this week including myself...good to have you!

Right now course is NW and moving at a good clip. There is some close in shear too ahead. Over the SE US and across the western atlantic a pretty strong ridge of 1020 HP which should begin to slow the systems NW movement and probably take it more westerly in 24 hrs. The internals are not in line as yet, some competition so I suspect slow development during the next 24-36 hrs but all that changes as it approaches the Leewards. I expect a path about 3/4s up the chain, south of PR and then brushing Hispanola to the south....My sense is it will be huricane strength by PR and probably a cat 2 or so by Hispanola. This generally follows the GFDL and NOGAPS. Where it goes from there to me is very uncertain...a turn to the north will pretty much destroy the circulation but if it skips south and stays south of eastern Cuba, it becomes a huge problem from Key West to the La Texas border as I expect it to turn north when it is in the southern gulf.

Interestingly, the Canadian model was one of first to pick up this system and it orginally had it a fish but has been moving west but still a fish. GFS is a fish too and consistantly so.

Will be interesting to see what NHC has to say this PM.

Obviously this first post is not an official projection of any credible source, just my best guess.

Vince

[KWT]

Funnily enough that lone ensemble member that recurves is about the sort of track I'd expect for this system!

[ozonepete]

Agree motion is around 280 or so. Also. I think Aric has the LLC just right.

[WxEnthus]

definetly see another low in there...to the west around 49N....not looking at the east convection.....FWIW this thing is hauling west....

I see an area of circulation about 49N 12.5, which seems to be dropping latitude over the past few hours. The other circulation looks like to be about 47N now moving up in latitude. To my untrained eyes these two distinct areas appear to be getting much closer to each other over the course of the day.

[Content is only the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Got lots of moisture and well-defined circulation. This should be TD soon...as for track, right now the islands
need to watch very closely...after that is ridge versus trough issue
down the road (days 4/5)

[Aric Dunn]

The NAm although not good with tropical systems but is good with synoptics.. has a stronger high extending farhter west.. thus brings 91L into the central islands before turning more NW

[HURAKAN]

There have been so many infamous Emilys, but 1987 could be its closest analogue

[KWT]

Yeah its been going NW because its disconnected fully from the ITCZ, looks like thats pretty much done now...

Still a elongated low but no doubts its almost there and probably meets the critera for being upgraded...

[KWT]

Hurakan, thats actually a very cool match, probably not a bad call if some of the models are to be believed...

[Aric Dunn]

definetly see another low in there...to the west around 49N....not looking at the east convection.....FWIW this thing is hauling west....

I see an area of circulation about 49N 12.5, which seems to be dropping latitude over the past few hours. The other circulation looks like to be about 47N now moving up in latitude. To my untrained eyes these two distinct areas appear to be getting much closer to each other over the course of the day.

[Content is only the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

its dropping in latitude becasue its an old MLC that was spit out from the convection this morning. watch a long loop and you will see.. The main LLC is back at about 47 west. 13 N

[srainhoutx]

Yeah its been going NW because its disconnected fully from the ITCZ, looks like thats pretty much done now...

Still a elongated low but no doubts its almost there and probably meets the critera for being upgraded...I sure hope the NHC aren't going to be behind the curve for yet another storm...

Rest assured. They are not...

[Aric Dunn]

definetly see another low in there...to the west around 49N....not looking at the east convection.....FWIW this thing is hauling west....

I see an area of circulation about 49N 12.5, which seems to be dropping latitude over the past few hours. The other circulation looks like to be about 47N now moving up in latitude. To my untrained eyes these two distinct areas appear to be getting much closer to each other over the course of the day.

[Content is only the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

its dropping in latitude becasue its an old MLC that was spit out from the convection this morning. watch a long loop and you will see.. The main LLC is back at about 47 west. 13 N

well almost to 48 west now.. basically heading west to wnw at the moment. the NW motion was due in part what KWT mentioned about the detachment. its also somewhat footballing giving the appearance of NW motion. mean motion is WNW

[KWT]

I also think the consensus model is actually also probably gives a fair idea of what I suspect will be the eventual track, true motion likely to stay between 280-290 for a while yet, but eventually lift up to the NW.

GFDL is interesting, but only rightn if the system relaly drags its heels...and I suspect its rather underdoing things in terms of pace...

[cycloneye]

Yeah its been going NW because its disconnected fully from the ITCZ, looks like thats pretty much done now...

Still a elongated low but no doubts its almost there and probably meets the critera for being upgraded...I sure hope the NHC aren't going to be behind the curve for yet another storm...

Rest assured. They are not...

They are all over it if you look at the recon thread and the missions that are already planned,including the gulfstream jet.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yeah its been going NW because its disconnected fully from the ITCZ, looks like thats pretty much done now...

Still a elongated low but no doubts its almost there and probably meets the critera for being upgraded...I sure hope the NHC aren't going to be behind the curve for yet another storm...

Rest assured. They are not...

I hope not. If it continues organizing tonight at the rate it has been all day, this should be a TD at least by 11pm tonight, and if the NHC decides they want to wait until recon gets into the system, that gives less warning time for the Lesser Antilles.

[SFLcane]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOME 900 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED. NHC NOW GIVES THIS
AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM
(SHOULD IT INDEED DEVELOP ITS NAME WOULD BE EMILY) TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO BY MID
WEEK. AS ALWAYS...THERE`S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. IF
IT BECOMES A HURRICANE IT WILL FEEL THE TROUGH MORE AND GET PULLED
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
MEAN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. ALSO...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IS IN QUESTION WITH THE 30.00Z RUN (12Z NOT IN YET) OF
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK. SO THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS
THAT IT`S JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[WxEnthus]

I see an area of circulation about 49N 12.5, which seems to be dropping latitude over the past few hours. The other circulation looks like to be about 47N now moving up in latitude. To my untrained eyes these two distinct areas appear to be getting much closer to each other over the course of the day.

[Content is only the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

its dropping in latitude becasue its an old MLC that was spit out from the convection this morning. watch a long loop and you will see.. The main LLC is back at about 47 west. 13 N

Oops, I had my N and W labels mixed up. Thanks! Yes, that's the second area of circ that I see, lately it looks to be a bit larger than earlier. I stuck with "circulations" and not LLC because I was wasn't sure what level either were at.

[cycloneye]

18z NAM south of PR.