ATL: EMILY - Remnants

shaggy · #761 Postby **shaggy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:50 pm

I think we see this start getting ripe tonight. Inflow seems to be increasing on the south side of the system and we should see a difinitive single low come out of this in 12-24 hours.

Gustywind · #762 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:50 pm

TwisterFanatic · #763 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:52 pm

Looking mighty impressive today.

#764 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:53 pm

That convection in the front is cleaning the dry air.

Gustywind · #765 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:53 pm

'CaneFreak · #766 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:54 pm

OK...so let me get this straight: SSD has the center at 12.8 47.4...NRL has it at 12.5 45.6 W...Aric has it near 47 W...and I have near 49 W where the deepest convection is located...and there are pro-mets that are saying this is a TD? OK...this makes a lot of sense :roll:

1845 91LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-456W

#767 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:56 pm

The Miami NWS WFO offered this analysis on the late afternoon forecast discussion regarding future Emily:

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOME 900 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED. NHC NOW GIVES THIS
AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM
(SHOULD IT INDEED DEVELOP ITS NAME WOULD BE EMILY) TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO BY MID
WEEK. AS ALWAYS...THERE`S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. IF
IT BECOMES A HURRICANE IT WILL FEEL THE TROUGH MORE AND GET PULLED
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
MEAN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. ALSO...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IS IN QUESTION WITH THE 30.00Z RUN (12Z NOT IN YET) OF
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK. SO THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS
THAT IT`S JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

#768 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:56 pm

At this point there seems to be a model for about every wishcaster. Luckily, none take it to NC yet (I just don't have time for it next week). Already off the Emily 2005 in it's wnw movement. 2005 stayed on a rather westerly track most of the way even though it got fairly strong early. It does look like (at the present moment) that the Lesser Antilles and PR will get something out of Emily. It also looks like it is getting rather large early. The islands and PR really need to keep on top of it. Looks like recon is going to find a well developed system, it certainly has improved is symmetry all day. Of concern is that this system looks this good this early. If Emily to be is an example of what we will face this season I'm afraid we all will have lost a lot of sleep before the end of the season.

Gustywind · #769 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:That convection in the front is cleaning the dry air.

Definitely right Luis, that's why i don't really tkink that dry air shoud be a big problem for 91L. Right now, hour after hour, 91L shows strong signs of intensification and thus approaching the hot water temps near the 50W... Let's continue to monitor very closely this feature.

Recurve · #770 Postby **Recurve** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:57 pm

Euro not on the SFWMD plot, right? I haven't seen that one, please post a graphic if anyone has it. My bad if it's up and I didn't see it on previous pages.

ROCK · #771 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:01 pm

Recurve wrote:Euro not on the SFWMD plot, right? I haven't seen that one, please post a graphic if anyone has it. My bad if it's up and I didn't see it on previous pages.

No its not.....the TVCN does take into account the EURO though and blends in all the global models. Thats what I have been told anyway....

Gustywind · #772 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:01 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:OK...so let me get this straight: SSD has the center at 12.8 47.4...NRL has it at 12.5 45.6 W...Aric has it near 47 W...and I have near 49 W where the deepest convection is located...and there are pro-mets that are saying this is a TD? OK...this makes a lot of sense

1845 91LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-456W

And NHC at 2PM has it at 12N 49W, find the mistake...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N48W TO 19N50W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE NEAR 12N49W AND CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED BENEATH THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N40W.
AN AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 46W-53W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
43W-52W.

$$
HUFFMAN

#773 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:02 pm

Doesn't seem like were going to get a TC at 5. Do you think the NHC will upgrade at 11 tonight? I don't remember many overnight upgrades, most come at 11am or 5pm.

Aric Dunn · #774 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:03 pm

Couple reports. and sat loop. clearly see the MLC farther west. the center is on east side. especially based the surface obs. the I spot is not where it is..

ROCK · #775 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:03 pm

toasting....OT Don barely put a dent in the GOM....ha

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

#776 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:05 pm

I agree, this has really begun to organize quickly this afternoon. I think we have a TD by late today if it isn't one in actuality already. No doubt with the warming SST's as it moves westward, a slower forward speed and favorable UL conditions that there is a good chance (60% IMO) that this storm could deepen rapidly.

Gustywind · #777 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:06 pm

Hey Cycloneye

, we should open a poll for 91L

? TD or not tonight?

#778 Postby **Tireman4** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:07 pm

ROCK wrote:toasting....OT Don barely put a dent in the GOM....ha

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Yeah, but the dry air put a dent in him...bwahhahha..ok back OT

'CaneFreak · #779 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:09 pm

I would like to get an opinion on where the center is located because I still see a very broad circulation...wxman57?

#780 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:10 pm

Bastardi.....

Big systems with banding, a hurricane in its embryonic stage
http://t.co/oS7UGWm
Could be cat 2 or 3 by the time it reaches around PR Tue

ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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