ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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HurricaneWarning92
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#741 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:31 pm

wow 2005 had 7 named storms by the start of August... 6 would be very close...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#742 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:33 pm

This morning she was elongated with competing lows....she has resolved that issue now and off to the races....she is going to be big and bad....I think you could fit about 4 Don's in that envelope..... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#743 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:33 pm

Thank goodness it's just the NOGAPS at this point. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#744 Postby hurricanedude » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:33 pm

correct me if im wrong, but doesnt most forecasts have the mid atlantic states as one of the highest risk areas this year......
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#745 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:34 pm

Organization continues at this hour...expect deep convection overnight with lowering pressures and a strengthening TS by morning...Early call 60mph when recon gets there later Sunday....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#746 Postby shaggy » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:35 pm

Not that I want to wish death and destruction on anyone but eastern north carolina is under a severe drought we have trees dying and crops that are destroyed and at one point there were over 40 wildfires smoking us out. We NEED tropical systems in this area to maintain our ground tables. Whether its storms that make landfall on the northern gulf coast and move up this way or direct impacts tropical systems play a large role in keeping us at our yearly normals. We have not had many passing tropical systems over the last few years and the drought is a long term and sustained drought....we need some tropical activity for a large widespread rainfall.
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#747 Postby theweatherwatch » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:36 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:wow 2005 had 7 named storms by the start of August... 6 would be very close...


Unless the "F" named storm forms from that wave coming off Africa and they upgrade it today or tomorrow we will only have 5 named storms by August 1st. Which is still only 2 storms away from 2005. At this rate we are on track to use all the names on the list this year if this continues!
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#748 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:37 pm

I have done a little calculation based on what banding I can see and low level cloud motion... and I place the Circulation which can be seen ... at about 13n 47W ....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#749 Postby Recurve » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:37 pm

Jeez, don't like NOGAPS. I know nobody pays much attention to it, but those tracks that head right for you always give a bit of a jolt. A direct Hispaniola hit is terrible for that island but offers some big hope for everybody farther west at least.

Anybody want to say why the last GFDL is also such a south tracker? Can't remember for sure but nogaps and Gfdl are very similar dynamical models, correct?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#750 Postby hurricanedude » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:38 pm

its amazing how just a little further south there is Severe Drought...and here in Norfolk, VA we have recieved 10 inches of rain so far this July...nature is wild!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#751 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:40 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Thank goodness it's just the NOGAPS at this point. :wink:

well actually the NOGAPS, GFDL and EURO are very similar tracks.. EURO is not something you look at lightly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#752 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:41 pm

Recurve wrote:Jeez, don't like NOGAPS. I know nobody pays much attention to it, but those tracks that head right for you always give a bit of a jolt. A direct Hispaniola hit is terrible for that island but offers some big hope for everybody farther west at least.

Anybody want to say why the last GFDL is also such a south tracker? Can't remember for sure but nogaps and Gfdl are very similar dynamical models, correct?


I think the NOGAPS EURO and GFDL have the right idea as far as track right now....Hard to go against any of them. The question is will that trof be deep enough to erode the ridge to pull her out of the carib in the long range? IMO I dont think so......I would be gearing up for a hurricane in the islands though as bad as that sounds for you guys....
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#753 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:42 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Flight 2 is Gulfstream I believe. Upper air atmosphere for model input flight.


I believe one of the first, if not the first, time the jet was used was during Hurricane Bertha in July of 1996. Please correct me people if I am wrong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#754 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:42 pm

That is one of them...I see another one still to the west wrapping around that convection...hmmmmmm

Aric Dunn wrote:I have done a little calculation based on what banding I can see and low level cloud motion... and I place the Circulation which can be seen ... at about 13n 47W ....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#755 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:Thank goodness it's just the NOGAPS at this point. :wink:

well actually the NOGAPS, GFDL and EURO are very similar tracks.. EURO is not something you look at lightly



ha, you beat me to it..... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#756 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:43 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:That is one of them...I see another one still to the west wrapping around that convection...hmmmmmm

Aric Dunn wrote:I have done a little calculation based on what banding I can see and low level cloud motion... and I place the Circulation which can be seen ... at about 13n 47W ....


that is a MLC that got spit out of the convection from earlier this morning.
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#757 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:43 pm

Latest from NRL:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... atest.html
1845 91LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-456W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#758 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:44 pm

ROCK wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:Thank goodness it's just the NOGAPS at this point. :wink:

well actually the NOGAPS, GFDL and EURO are very similar tracks.. EURO is not something you look at lightly



ha, you beat me to it..... :lol:



:P :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#759 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:45 pm

Offtopic: Tropical Wave wxman57 was referring,

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#760 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:46 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:That is one of them...I see another one still to the west wrapping around that convection...hmmmmmm

Aric Dunn wrote:I have done a little calculation based on what banding I can see and low level cloud motion... and I place the Circulation which can be seen ... at about 13n 47W ....



I see that one at 13N 49 west....just had a pop of convection blow up over it....maybe that is the main one.
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