WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

Chacor · #201 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:22 pm

JTWC 1200 UTC discussion mentioned a 10 nm (11.5 mi) wide eye. I believe the eye might have contracted further since.

Chacor · #202 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:28 pm

This is easily the most impressive satellite presentation of a storm I have seen since Monica.

phwxenthusiast · #203 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:32 pm

i'm seeing a little bit of warming on the northeastern side...

Chacor · #204 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:35 pm

Any warming of cloud tops at this point is a good thing. If it peaks early and starts to go a bit downhill Okinawa would have it better. Hopefully the storm doesn't attain a secondary peak, if this is the case.

#205 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:45 pm

Totally speechless!! I left the flat this morning when Muifa looked to be putting on a impressive burst of intensification, come home 14 hours later and see this. Has to be most explosive ultra bombing of a TC I've ever seen!

It's going to be a rough ride tracking this beast! Oh if only we had recon!

Chacor · #206 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:51 pm

Will be interesting to see what the agencies do at 1800.

#207 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:52 pm

Could we see some T8.0s at next update?

#208 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:52 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2011 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 16:38:46 N Lon : 132:22:34 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 905.9mb/149.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +4.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 122km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.3 degrees

Chacor · #209 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:54 pm

I have never seen a T8.0 in an objective satellite fix from any agency, ever. I've only ever seen 8.0 from ADT.

Battlebrick · #210 Postby **Battlebrick** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:55 pm

Chacor wrote:I have never seen a T8.0 in an objective satellite fix from any agency, ever. I've only ever seen 8.0 from ADT.

Monica?

#211 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:56 pm

Battlebrick wrote:
Chacor wrote:I have never seen a T8.0 in an objective satellite fix from any agency, ever. I've only ever seen 8.0 from ADT.

Monica?

Monica was 7.5 from TAFB and SAB.

#212 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:04 pm

Battlebrick wrote:
Chacor wrote:I have never seen a T8.0 in an objective satellite fix from any agency, ever. I've only ever seen 8.0 from ADT.

Monica?

I was looking at this earlier and found that Nida in 2009 had a raw value of T8.0 at one point.

I should clarify this was the ADT also.

#213 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:48 pm

JMA seem to be taking a lesson from the IMD book on warning tropical cyclones. 95kts (10 min) gusting to 135kts...what a complete joke!

#214 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:56 pm

Amazing system!

#215 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:08 pm

Trying to recall when/if I last saw a sub 900hPa forecast like this. This is the 18Z CMA forecast.

WTPQ20 BABJ 301800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MUIFA 1109 (1109) INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC
00HR 16.6N 132.6E 925HPA 55M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 160KM
P12HR N 10KM/H
P+24HR 18.8N 132.8E 915HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 21.0N 133.1E 890HPA 70M/S
P+72HR 23.8N 131.8E 890HPA 70M/S
P+96HR 25.5N 129.3E 905HPA 65M/S
P+120HR 26.5N 127.1E 915HPA 60M/S=

#216 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:21 pm

I hope everybody is saving their images and loops into static form because this is incredible. :eek:

#217 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:24 pm

Let's hope ECMWF 12z run doesn't verify. You don't often see such devastating runs here in Wpac...

#218 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:27 pm

Here is that 18Z JMA forecast.

WTPQ21 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 16.7N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 18.6N 132.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 011800UTC 21.3N 132.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 021800UTC 23.7N 130.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

Also the 18Z KMA forecast:

WTKO20 RKSL 301800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 301800UTC 16.6N 132.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 311800UTC 18.9N 132.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 011800UTC 21.2N 132.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 021800UTC 23.6N 131.9E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Fyzn94 · #219 Postby **Fyzn94** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:28 pm

SUPER Typhoon Muifa...still a cat 4.

#220 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:37 pm

somethingfunny wrote:I hope everybody is saving their images and loops into static form because this is incredible.

Haha yes, saved 18 hours worth of MTSAT IR imagery from CWB website. Love the avatar btw

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