ATL: EMILY - Remnants

Gustywind · #681 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:33 pm

TD 5 in the making?! :eek:

Numbers have been up to 1.0... TD status is maybe close now :oops:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1745 UTC 12.8N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 91L

#682 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:33 pm

If this meets criteria for TD, should they declare it immediately or wait for Recon? Problem is that a watch (probably a Hurricane Watch) would be needed for some islands, and by the time Recon gets there, they will only have 24 hours to prepare or less and a warning would be needed. I'd go at first sign and call it TD5 as soon as it becomes clear criteria is met.

beoumont · #683 Postby **beoumont** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:34 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Emily has a bad history...can another chapter be written? Will Emily be the first name ever to reach Category 5 TWICE?

Besides that 2005 notoriety, Emily of 1993 brought the highest tidal surge in the history of Cape Hatteras, 10.2 feet. The surge came on the NW wind. which gusted to 110 mph, and swept water from Pamlico Sound across the Cape, attaching the Sound to the Atlantic Ocean.

A 4 minute video, with satellite and radar loops, follows from Buxton, NC, the point of closest approach: the western edge of the 40 mile eye approx. 2 miles away.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkrTHo8PcEk[/youtube]

#684 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:Michael, what intensity is when is just south of PR?

As far as I can tell its at 1008mb probably a low end TS.

hurricanedude · #685 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:34 pm

LOL...never mind, ya dont get my point....back to topic B4 cycloneeye or Ivanhater yells at me
hehehe

#686 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:34 pm

Already recurving or moving NW at 168hrs on the ECM

#687 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:35 pm

No fish -- imho.

#688 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:36 pm

Maybe a TS before Sunday morning.

#689 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:36 pm

can anyone explain what Flight Two is about?

That flight (Gulfstream Jet) goes to check the upper enviroment.

#690 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:37 pm

Flight 2 is Gulfstream I believe. Upper air atmosphere for model input flight.

hipshot · #691 Postby **hipshot** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:37 pm

This thing is really starting to spin up to my untrained eye. It seems like the eastern
and western portion of this elongated wave are coming together and that could be
really scary if it slows as predicted. If I lived on the islands of the eastern Caribbean,
I'd be making plans to batten down the hatches.

Gustywind · #692 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:40 pm

ronjon · #693 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:40 pm

Yeah utimately Hispanola may have a big role at play on the future track and intensity of the system.. I'm mildly concerned however that a large hurricane moving over Hispanola would be weakened but then could again rapidly strengthen once it reemerges over the Bahamas. This one is starting to look more and more that it could take a Georges track.

#694 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:41 pm

Starting to lift up at 168 hours but the short term trend is further south and west in the Caribbean with that being the case, the trough is going to need to come in stronger in future runs to fully pick this up. Regardless, the Islands better get ready for a strenghtening Hurricane passing through imo....she is waking up today.

#695 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:42 pm

ronjon,dont remind me of that one,as almost all PR was without power and water for almost 2 weeks.

#696 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I really dont think the models have a clue on the size of the system... if it becomes a hurricane the size of frances or Floyed than we are going to have a very hard time with it recurving. Floyed only did because the trough that picked it up was very amplified. the models right with this system have bassically just a weakness no real trough. I noticed the end of the GFS before it got picked up it stalled because the trough lifted out and the high built in but not to much... the GFDL on the other hand build in the ridge much stronger.... going to be interesting because these large systems dont like to turn and with a progressive pattern the models are seeing .... A simple clear cut recurve is not likely.

Excellent point about large-sized tropical cyclones Aric. Looking at the expansive moist envelope 91L has right now, it is looking more and more apparent to me that future Emily just may be a rather large sized-CV tropical cyclone. Often times than not, these large-sized tropical cyclones create their own environment and it takes well pronounced upper level synoptic features to steer them.

#697 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:44 pm

35 knots...could go straight to Emily, but I think the NHC will upgrade to TD tonight and wait for Recon tomorrow to upgrade to Emily.

AL, 91, 2011042218, , BEST, 0, 265N, 640W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 60, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

#698 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:44 pm

Will this system regardless of intensity,be as big in size as Floyd,Gilbert?

#699 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:45 pm

Ivanhater wrote:35 knots...could go straight to Emily, but I think the NHC will upgrade to TD tonight and wait for Recon tomorrow to upgrade to Emily.

AL, 91, 2011042218, , BEST, 0, 265N, 640W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 60, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

I think renumber will come shortly.

#700 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:35 knots...could go straight to Emily, but I think the NHC will upgrade to TD tonight and wait for Recon tomorrow to upgrade to Emily.

AL, 91, 2011042218, , BEST, 0, 265N, 640W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 60, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

I think renumber will come shortly.

This is the right Best Track.

AL, 91, 2011073018, , BEST, 0, 128N, 478W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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