ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

The through comes through faster on this run. So future-Emily moves north out of the Caribbean faster, but becomes trapped by the rebuilding high. I can't tell if that is a good trend in the long run in terms of avoiding US impact or not.

EDIT: It sits and gets recurved by the next through, but I don't personally hold much faith in the GFS after it looses high resolution after 204 hours.

['CaneFreak]

Agreed

The through comes through faster on this run. So future-Emily moves north out of the Caribbean faster, but becomes trapped by the rebuilding high. I can't tell if that is a good trend in the long run in terms of avoiding US impact or not.

EDIT: It sits and gets recurved by the next through, but I don't personally hold much faith in the GFS after it looses high resolution after 204 hours.

[Rgv20]

This could be a classic scenario where if the trough is not strong enough or 91l is not deep enough it would just cause a slow down to N/NW movement for a couple of days follow by a west movement if the 6zGFS Ensembles are correct.

By 96hrs you could can see the trough around Maine pulling on 91l.


By 168hrs the trough is on the process of lifting out albeit a slow one. But some of the Ensembles start to build a ridge east of Florida.


Of course this far out is just speculation but just something to keep an eye out.

[ConvergenceZone]

Operational GFS:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

Ridge rebuilds over Northeastern US...NO recurve on this run folks

I don't know about that, whie I don't see it showing it recurving, I also don't show it hitting the USA either. Just kinda sitting out there in the Atlantic.

[northjaxpro]

This is going to be a great one to track. Does it beat the ridge and recurve into Bermuda, or does the ridge push back and slide it into the Carolinas? Or is the ridge extra strong, pushing it over Florida and into the Gulf? Regardless, this one has the potential to be a loooooong tracker with some really interesting steering.

I'm pumped.

Well, I am not pumped about the prospects of our fellow neighbors down in the NE Caribbean islands potentially staring down at this storm in a few days. This could get to be a potentially dangerous situation for them. I'm hope and pray for the best situation possible, but also hope those folks are preparing for the worst as this system likely heads their way within the next 72 hours.

But, I do agree with you that this tropical cyclone will be quite a fascinating one to monitor all next week. There are so many variables to factor in with this system, including the ones you mentioned plasticup. Everyone definitely needs to pay attention for sure all week long with the progress of future Emily.

[StormClouds63]

This is going to be a great one to track. Does it beat the ridge and recurve into Bermuda, or does the ridge push back and slide it into the Carolinas? Or is the ridge extra strong, pushing it over Florida and into the Gulf? Regardless, this one has the potential to be a loooooong tracker with some really interesting steering.

I'm pumped.

Of the 3 options you mentioned, it's probably scenario 1 (re-curve) ... if not, option 2 (EC threat)

[Vortex]

Bring on 2011, The science behind the madness begins....Each year we wait all year for these 3 upcoming month Aug-Oct..Maybe a few weeks early but here we go folks...We break down the models 4x a day, sleep little, conjecture alot but in the end its our unique passion that few quite understand...Emily in the making should certainly bring all that we do too the table...I look forward to everyones analysis..Stay safe and enjoy the ride...

[plasticup]

Eh, I'm rooting against the recurve. Everyone loves them, but for those of us in Bermuda it's not so great.

Fun fact, my first ever hurricane was also called Emily. It whipped through Bermuda in 1987 before satellite communication and no one even knew it was coming. People were driving, sailing, out for walks, a cruise ship was trying to dock and then BOOM it's a hurricane. To this day, people are able to tell you exactly what they were doing when Emily showed up.

[hurricaneCW]

Just like with last season, I think we'll see a lot of close calls, I'm not saying anything about this invest until we get an actual system out of it. It's starting to get better organized on satellite though, more convection, some classic curvature, Emily is probably one of my favorite names so I hope it becomes a powerful system like 2005.

[Bocadude85]

I wonder if we could see a track similar to hurricane David in 1979 perhaps a little north of his track and not as strong obviously.

[Vortex]

I like the idea Martinique to PR with a turn more to the NW after bypassing PR. I'm not sold on a full connection yet..Could linger near the bahamas for a few days...

[Vortex]

Also, classic example of weaker further west, stronger better chance of up and out...

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I believe I am seeing two low level centers in this case: one near 49W (will likely become emily at some point) and one near 45/46 west...this is going to slow the development process even further...I am beginning to think this thing is really going to take its time developing...lets see what they say at 2 pm...

[Evil Jeremy]

Vorticity has vastly improved over the past 6 hours. Much more consolidated now:

6 Hours Ago:


Now:


91L is looking healthy this morning. I say the NHC raises their TWO to 80% in a half hour, though 90% wouldn't surprise me, given how unpredictable they have been this season.

EDIT: Had the images in the wrong order lol, fixed.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

12z CMC ends run in the northern Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I believe I am seeing two low level centers in this case: one near 49W (will likely become emily at some point) and one near 45/46 west...this is going to slow the development process even further...I am beginning to think this thing is really going to take its time developing...lets see what they say at 2 pm...

good eye and I see it also....49W 12.8N out in front and another lagging behind. still has ways to go IMO...one of these will become the dominant one eventually.

[JPmia]

I suspect we'll be discussing the impacts on Emily from the high mountains of Hispainola in a couple of days, but in the short term PR and NE carib islands have some trouble on their hands it appears.

[Tropics Guy]

Overall structure is improving, though seems like the low pressure circulation is still stretched out east to west which may slow development in the interim, but still on its way to becoming a TD or Emily by tomorrow or sooner...................

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG

[ConvergenceZone]

12z CMC ends run in the northern Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That run is probably the most ominous yet, as far as getting closer to the east coast is concerned. While you can see a turn the last couple of frames, it's making it a much closer call then the other models runs. Interesting days ahead....