ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[floridasun78]

i bet their are watching it people on islands i have feeling weather office on islands are in conect with nhc today we could see watch post by 11pm tonight or sometime sunday i think their in planing stage now

[BigA]

Where do you all peg is the "center" right now, or at least the area where the center is likely to form. The vorticity maps show the vortmax close to 48 west, but the curvature of the clouds indicates that it might be a couple degrees farther east. Any thoughts?

Speeding the loop up shows my best guess to be about 12.5 N 48.1 west IMHO, but still not sure.

[Jimsot]

Here on Anguilla carnival opened last night. A tropical system this week would be a real bummer.

[Weatherfreak000]

Models seem to be trending back into the GOM now...

[Ivanhater]

For kicks and giggles....12z Nam is pretty far south in the Caribbean

[SouthDadeFish]

Where do you all peg is the "center" right now, or at least the area where the center is likely to form. The vorticity maps show the vortmax close to 48 west, but the curvature of the clouds indicates that it might be a couple degrees farther east. Any thoughts?

Speeding the loop up shows my best guess to be about 12.5 N 48.1 west IMHO, but still not sure.

After looking at RGB imagery again, I agree. I can see a circulation in the same spot. Although the low-level winds on the west side don't seem to have much of a northerly component like they did yesterday.

[Dean4Storms]

The models for the most part from the past two days already had this system closed off and well into TS pressure depths especially those that had it either missing the islands to the NE altogether or hitting the NE Islands as a hurricane and turning more NW. So far they have been wrong on development and intensity so with that I am beginning to believe a weaker storm arrives in the islands and that the EURO has a better handle on it. 91L or some remains of it after crashing into the bigger Antilles Islands could very well eventually make it into the Gulf like 90L and eventually what became of Don.

I just don't see this organizing enough with its appearance today to get deep enough to begin climbing into the ridge gaining more latitude.

Of course this is my opinion which is not official and you should monitor official sources for all your info.

[Frank2]

The models for the most part from the past two days already had this system closed off and well into TS pressure depths especially those that had it either missing the islands to the NE altogether or hitting the NE Islands as a hurricane and turning more NW. So far they have been wrong on development and intensity so with that I am beginning to believe a weaker storm arrives in the islands and that the EURO has a better handle on it. 91L or some remains of it after crashing into the bigger Antilles Islands could very well eventually make it into the Gulf like 90L and eventually what became of Don.

I just don't see this organizing enough with its appearance today to get deep enough to begin climbing into the ridge gaining more latitude.

Of course this is my opinion which is not official and you should monitor official sources for all your info.

I agree...

[Gustywind]

GFS Ensembles do not agree with the operational

GFS loves Guadeloupe

[floridasun78]

HWRF show stronger high to north of 91l that not good for bahamas or south fl were i live look their was weakness but high rebuild

[floridasun78]

HWRF got high rebuilding north of hurricane as get near bahamas that not good for bahamas or south fl

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the reason it looks linear and elongated today is because the eastern half is still connected to to the ITCZ. As the actual circulation detaches and slides WNW, the ITCZ is still firing and appearing as if it is part of 91L's circulation. 850mb vorticity charts reflect an increase in vorticity it matches well with the spin near 12.5N and 48W. There is also an anticyclone over this feature, thus wind shear is quite low. Conditions appear pretty favorable to me, as long as dry air doesn't disrupt the convection too much. This remains to be seen.

[wxman57]

To me, it appears it's developing precisely as the models have been forecasting. Look again, GFS/CMC/Euro just have a weak low (TD) until it passes 55W. Once around 58W it really deepens. So it's right on schedule to be a strengthening TS when it crosses the Antilles near Guadeloupe Monday afternoon/evening and a hurricane when it nears the U.S. and BVI on Tuesday.

[Gustywind]

I measured a 24 hr movement of 290 deg at 15.8 kts. That's a common speed for the region. Note that the Bermuda high is a bit east of its normal position now. Once the disturbance nears the Antilles it should really slow down, as indicated by the models. that's where it would intensify quickly.

NHC doesn't appear to like to upgrade disturbances that are threatening the eastern Caribbean without recon. Remember Tomas last year? That one was a TD a good 24 hours before recon could get there, and it really caught the eastern Caribbean residents by surprise. I'm hoping that the NHC upgrades this system by 4pm today so that residents aren't caught off-guard again.

Impact would be in just over 48 hrs early PM Monday for the Lesser Antilles (near Guadeloupe) and Tuesday afternoon/evening for the U.S. and British Virgin Island (just over 72 hrs). Not much time for residents or businesses to prepare if the NHC delays in upgrading it.

Excellent analysis, 100% agree, thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

I see a pretty strong Mid level circ dead center ... convection increasing around it.. maybe a surface circ is developing there as well. convection is key..

looks a whole lot better from the wide view...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[Gustywind]

91L continuing its trip near the Lesser Antilles...

[cycloneye]

I see a pretty strong Mid level circ dead center ... convection increasing around it.. maybe a surface circ is developing there as well. convection is key..

looks a whole lot better from the wide view...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Did you pinpointed a lat-lon?

[Frank2]

Gusty,

Any chance of doing a photoshop on that photo - those METEOSAT images are way too over-exposed and make a cirruis cloud look like a Cat 5 (lol)...

Thanks,

Frank

[Nimbus]

Down in the low clouds there was a vortex passing through 48W ~12.6N. Pretty common to have several of these in a developing area one of which finally dominates.

[caribepr]

I measured a 24 hr movement of 290 deg at 15.8 kts. That's a common speed for the region. Note that the Bermuda high is a bit east of its normal position now. Once the disturbance nears the Antilles it should really slow down, as indicated by the models. that's where it would intensify quickly.

NHC doesn't appear to like to upgrade disturbances that are threatening the eastern Caribbean without recon. Remember Tomas last year? That one was a TD a good 24 hours before recon could get there, and it really caught the eastern Caribbean residents by surprise. I'm hoping that the NHC upgrades this system by 4pm today so that residents aren't caught off-guard again.

Impact would be in just over 48 hrs early PM Monday for the Lesser Antilles (near Guadeloupe) and Tuesday afternoon/evening for the U.S. and British Virgin Island (just over 72 hrs). Not much time for residents or businesses to prepare if the NHC delays in upgrading it.

Excellent analysis, 100% agree, thanks.

Word from Culebra and PR is that everyone is preparing, whether or not there is an upgrade...Hope for the best, prepare for the worst...it works!