ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jlauderdal]

The thing is there is a stall in the bahamas for like 2 days which indicates ridging temporarily building in so I wouldn't be suprised if this headed west, with something like that in the run I would be very leary anywhere from Key West to Cape Hatteras and possibly the gulf as of now, but as always that could change

how about newfoundland?

[KWT]

I can see why they went code red, its got fgood convection, reasonable model support forn development and already a decent surface circulation, no reason not to go code red.

That being said the circulation is elongated as others have said and that may well slow things down, also the air to the west is rather dry...

Looking good there alan!

[KWT]

ECM does still weakly develop it and smashes it against Hispaniola, may notn be a bad solution if it stays weak.

GFS still keen on PR, abit weaker then previous runs but probably still a decent system.

[shaggy]

ECM does still weakly develop it and smashes it against Hispaniola, may notn be a bad solution if it stays weak.

GFS still keen on PR, abit weaker then previous runs but probably still a decent system.

Storm has started consolidating a little better but has made steady progress towards the NW overnight. Maybe the early motion that the HWRF was showing to the northwest is correct after all?

[KWT]

I suspect that NW motion is simply it jumping out of the ITCZ and not true motion...and besides the extrap isn't to the NW anyway, its deffo WNW.

Upper pattern still screams recurve IF it gets north of 15N before 65-70W. Troughing on the 00z run not as strong as it was on the 12z ECM, it may not be a bad solution actually...

[wzrgirl1]

Very impressive for an invest indeed. I feel that it will be bumped up to TD status by Sunday Morning and TS status by that evening. Hurricane by Tuesday.....first of the season. All just an opinion though.

[KWT]

wzrgirl1, agreed though I wouldn't be surprised if they upgraded today IF it can hold its current convection, esp given its probable risk to land 3-5 days down the line.

[RL3AO]

Think its already a depression. Probably 90/100% at 8

[KWT]

RL3AO, I can see why'd you'd think that and to be honest I think it probably will form today like Aric was saying yesterday.

All depends on where the low level circulation is in comprasion to the convection. Have to see what the latest passes show.

Also looking forward to recon tomorrow!

[dwsqos2]

I would be shocked if this were upgraded today. SAB was too weak around 6Z. Generally, without reconnaissance, 6-hour subjective t numbers from both TAFB and SAB need to average at least T1.5, if not T2.0, for two six hour periods. There are exceptions to this; Igor was classified with an average of less than T1.5. However, Igor had an incredibly obvious and vigorous circulation; also it was effecting Cape Verde.

And, looking at shortwave loops there doesn't appear to be a very vigorous circulation with 91L. It has lots of work to do, IMO.

[KWT]

dwsqos2, The NHC must see something to have made them go as high as 70%. I'd say there is a 50-50 chance of development today, it HAS got a LLC, may not be the strongest but its there and has been there for a while, convection is still firing up as well as noted by the NHC.

Either way I think there is at least a chance of Emily being here before July is out...that'd be storm 4 for July AND a storm in the MDR...ho hum!

[dwsqos2]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... MBas26.png

I am too lazy to do the imageshack thing, but this was from 2300Z yesterday. It's not particularly thrilling.

The convective definition is de facto pegged to satellite intensity estimates. So, as long as there is no recon, and unless something changes substantially, I think classification today is unlikely.

[alan1961]

It can't be too far from an upgrade...ATCF track up on NRL

[cycloneye]

It can't be too far from an upgrade...ATCF track up on NRL

Here is the text.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 300400
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 43.1W TO 11.7N
50.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN EASTERLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED ARE OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 41.6W IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
AT 30/0215Z, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND A
29/2325Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 1200NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD AN
AREA OF CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 310400Z.//

[ronjon]

Put me down as a skeptic for immediate development. Still looks rather linear and lots of dry stable air to its north with SC. Interestly, model support has diminished from the 00z runs. Both the GFDL and HWRF didn't develop it on their 00z runs (and HWRF develops almost everything). Count the ECM, UKMET, and NOGAPs as weak on the development side too. Which leaves only the crazy uncle CMC and GFS as bullish on development. I'm not saying it won't eventually get going but it may take longer than some think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[ronjon]

NWS Melbourne Discussion - differences on the strength of ridging between GFS and ECM - what a surprise, lol.

WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE TO THE SE AS THE MID ATLC DISTURBANCE/
T-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SERN BAHAMAS
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRENGTH/POSITION OF WRN ATLC RIDGE WILL DETERMINE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF SYSTEM AND JUST HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO FL. THE GFS
IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM TURNING NORTH NEAR/EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE ECM ACTUALLY SPLITS THE H85 VORT ENERGY.
IT RUNS THE LEAD PIECE WNW THROUGH THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER
ANTILLES...DAMPENING IT OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE FLORIDA WHILE TAKING
A WEAKER TRAILING PIECE AND TURNING IT NWD WELL EAST OF FL.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS this morning:

LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND THEN ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND ENCOUNTERS
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...REGARDING ITS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ULTIMATE TRACK AND WHAT EFFECTS IT MAY HAVE
ON THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AS EACH DAY PASSES...AVAILABLE
OBSERVED AND FORECAST DATA CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN INCREASING
PROBABILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A THREAT AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE ISLANDS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND PUERTO
RICO.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND SEAS TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED AND MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND TROPICAL
WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

617
ABNT20 KNHC 301151
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

HWRF is back with a hurricane! 06z run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation