WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

#141 Postby **weatherSnoop** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:56 am

ClarkEligue wrote:

can you guys just tell me this is what I think this is?

Is that high expected to move? If so, which way?

Infdidoll · #142 Postby **Infdidoll** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:40 am

I believe the High is supposed to move off to the West, per the weather charts from JMA and HKO. I don't know how quickly that is projected to happen, though.

phwxenthusiast · #143 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:44 am

now a typhoon!

TPPN11 PGTW 300626

A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)

B. 30/0532Z

C. 16.2N

D. 133.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. IN THE PAST HR, THE EYE
HAS WARMED FROM B TO LG AND IS SURR BY W RING. EYE NUMBER IS
6.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT DUE TO LG EYE. WITH NO BANDING
FEATURE, THIS YIELDS A DT OF 6.0.
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24HRS,
YIELDING A MET OF 5.0. PT IS 5.5. FINAL T BASED ON MET WITH
CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

HOUGH

#144 Postby **ManilaTC** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:50 am

Whoa! a 5.0? That is already a Cat 3!

#145 Postby **ManilaTC** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:58 am

JMA has upgraded it to 70kts from 55kts
NNW movement though.

WTPQ21 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 16.2N 133.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 18.3N 133.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 010600UTC 20.4N 133.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 020600UTC 22.7N 132.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

Funny how did this become NNW :ggreen:

phwxenthusiast · #146 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:23 am

it does seem to be moving more to the west... :eek:

#147 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:29 am

Last couple of frames looks like its headed back north but I am sure we are going to need more then a wobble to say it has turned back NNW

euro6208 · #148 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:41 am

1 minute winds increased by 25 knots to 85 knots according to nrlmry but that is not enough. its sad to think that muifa is probrably at her first peak and jtwc is playing catch-up with this storm. i would place the intensity at 115 knots category 4 winds.

phwxenthusiast · #149 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:05 am

euro6208 wrote:1 minute winds increased by 25 knots to 85 knots according to nrlmry but that is not enough. its sad to think that muifa is probrably at her first peak and jtwc is playing catch-up with this storm. i would place the intensity at 115 knots category 4 winds.

no offense, but i think you're overestimating the winds a little bit... not even the ADT, which is usually aggressive, is showing those kinds of numbers... it's just a Cat 2/Cat 3 imho... but amazing RI indeed!! :eek:

euro6208 · #150 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:09 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:
euro6208 wrote:1 minute winds increased by 25 knots to 85 knots according to nrlmry but that is not enough. its sad to think that muifa is probrably at her first peak and jtwc is playing catch-up with this storm. i would place the intensity at 115 knots category 4 winds.

no offense, but i think you're overestimating the winds a little bit... not even the ADT, which is usually aggressive, is showing those kinds of numbers... it's just a Cat 2/Cat 3 imho... but amazing RI indeed!!

dvorak estimates are useless when it comes to pinhole eyes. would you believe them even though your eyes are telling you this is a much stronger system? i wouldn't

at muifa's first peak, i believe she peak at 145 knots 1 minute sustained

i would place the intensity of muifa right now at 130 knots- A Super Typhoon...

and should start to lose her small eye

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC products.

KWT · #151 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:12 am

Very impressive looking core, probably a high 3/4 at the moment I'd have thought with that presentation.

ECM still trending ever so slightly further north on its 00z and with it a slightly slower landfall as well...still looks rather on the strong side as well!

phwxenthusiast · #152 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:27 am

euro6208 wrote:
phwxenthusiast wrote:
euro6208 wrote:1 minute winds increased by 25 knots to 85 knots according to nrlmry but that is not enough. its sad to think that muifa is probrably at her first peak and jtwc is playing catch-up with this storm. i would place the intensity at 115 knots category 4 winds.

no offense, but i think you're overestimating the winds a little bit... not even the ADT, which is usually aggressive, is showing those kinds of numbers... it's just a Cat 2/Cat 3 imho... but amazing RI indeed!!

dvorak estimates are useless when it comes to pinhole eyes. would you believe them even though your eyes are telling you this is a much stronger system? i wouldn't

at muifa's first peak, i believe she peak at 145 knots 1 minute sustained

i would place the intensity of muifa right now at 130 knots- A Super Typhoon...

and should start to lose her small eye

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC products.

noted!

well we wouldn't be arguing over intensity if there was a goddamn recon in the first place lol!! why oh why, did they have to stop the flights... there's lots of major cities than can be impacted by a typhoon (Manila, Taipei, Shanghai, Okinawa, Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, etc).... i wish the countries vulnerable to typhoons would set up a unified committee that would oversee the operation of these flights... of course they would contribute in terms of money, personnel, and equipments...

dexterlabio · #153 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:24 am

ClarkEligue wrote:

can you guys just tell me this is what I think this is?

By the looks of it, Muifa is really confused on which way to go :lol:

, I think that is the reason why Muifa has been moving slowly for some time. It is halfway between the two ridges that are currently affecting its movement, the one to the southwest is driving it towards to the north/northeast and the other one to its north is driving it westward. It will be crucial to predict the timing when that high to the north of Muifa becomes more dominant. Yes, everything will depend on the timing.

ECM latest run has a quite complicated setup, in my opinion. But it's been doing a good performance so far so I can't help but to rely on them more. :lol:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC products.

euro6208 · #154 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:33 am

of course! Japan and China would team up :wink:

being that they have one of the world's largest economies. would be exciting to bring back recon here penetrating those very powerful typhoons that develop each and every year!!

#155 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:46 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 16.5N 132.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 18.3N 132.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 011200UTC 20.5N 132.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 021200UTC 23.1N 131.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

phwxenthusiast · #156 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:46 am

jesus! now up to 6.0 on latest JTWC dvorak... that's a Cat 4!!! :eek:

#157 Postby **ManilaTC** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:57 am

Its starting that Westerly stepladder Jog again.

#158 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:02 am

ClarkEligue wrote:Its starting that Westerly stepladder Jog again.

I still see NNW...

#159 Postby **ManilaTC** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:09 am

StormingB81 wrote:
ClarkEligue wrote:Its starting that Westerly stepladder Jog again.

I still see NNW...

I think your right but Muifa seems to be having a bit of difficulty establishing its own track.

Perhaps this would be the reason.

Infdidoll · #160 Postby **Infdidoll** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:10 am

Wow! What a symmetrically beautiful storm. Look at that banding!

WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Storm

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