ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Nikki]

If Don does not pull up a little to the north he is going to be making landfall in extreme S. Texas

Looking at the recon it looks like it have a bit more nw movement now than the wnw that it had before, i believe it will make landfall north of Corpus Christi.

I am far from being knowledgeable as most when it come to Tropical systems, but I don't see anything that proves this will hit north of Corpus Christi.

[HURAKAN]

553
URNT15 KNHC 291433
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 29 20110729
142400 2659N 09610W 8429 01586 0109 +189 +055 023018 019 015 000 00
142430 2657N 09610W 8429 01586 0109 +187 +056 021019 019 016 000 00
142500 2655N 09610W 8429 01585 0110 +185 +056 022019 019 015 000 00
142530 2654N 09610W 8430 01585 0112 +185 +056 026020 020 018 000 00
142600 2652N 09610W 8426 01587 0111 +185 +055 021021 021 018 000 00
142630 2650N 09611W 8429 01586 0111 +185 +055 022021 022 017 000 03
142700 2648N 09611W 8429 01586 0109 +185 +055 022021 021 016 000 00
142730 2646N 09611W 8430 01583 0108 +185 +055 018020 021 012 000 00
142800 2644N 09611W 8428 01587 0109 +186 +055 018022 023 016 000 03
142830 2643N 09611W 8429 01585 0111 +183 +055 018022 022 014 000 00
142900 2641N 09612W 8434 01578 0114 +180 +055 018023 023 014 000 00
142930 2639N 09612W 8429 01584 0110 +185 +054 018023 023 015 000 00
143000 2637N 09612W 8429 01584 0110 +182 +054 017024 024 015 000 00
143030 2635N 09612W 8427 01586 0111 +180 +054 016022 022 014 000 00
143100 2633N 09612W 8431 01582 0111 +180 +053 013022 023 013 000 00
143130 2632N 09613W 8429 01587 0116 +176 +053 014023 023 010 000 03
143200 2630N 09613W 8429 01584 0117 +175 +053 011022 023 010 000 00
143230 2628N 09613W 8432 01583 0118 +177 +052 008022 022 007 001 03
143300 2626N 09613W 8429 01586 0117 +176 +052 003021 021 008 001 00
143330 2624N 09613W 8425 01591 0118 +175 +051 002021 022 012 001 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DON HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE
STORM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WITH AN ELONGATED OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND A STREAM OF ARC
CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS NEAR 1002 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/12. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER LAND IN
36-48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE SHEAR UNTIL THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HR. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF DON. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPEDE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THUS THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. DON SHOULD WEAKEN
STEADILY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY BY 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 26.2N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 27.7N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0000Z 28.3N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

275
WTNT34 KNHC 291432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DON APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 94.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO MATAGORDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TODAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

876
URNT15 KNHC 291443
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 30 20110729
143400 2622N 09614W 8432 01582 0117 +175 +051 001021 022 010 000 00
143430 2621N 09614W 8428 01589 0118 +177 +051 003021 022 012 000 03
143500 2619N 09614W 8432 01582 0116 +177 +052 358022 022 008 000 00
143530 2617N 09614W 8429 01584 0112 +180 +052 357022 023 010 000 00
143600 2615N 09614W 8429 01584 0114 +178 +052 356021 021 012 000 00
143630 2613N 09615W 8433 01581 0117 +177 +053 353019 020 009 000 00
143700 2611N 09615W 8429 01588 0120 +174 +053 355020 020 007 000 00
143730 2610N 09615W 8429 01589 0123 +175 +053 359020 021 006 000 03
143800 2608N 09615W 8431 01587 0123 +175 +052 001021 022 007 000 03
143830 2606N 09615W 8429 01589 0122 +172 +052 357021 021 007 000 00
143900 2604N 09616W 8428 01588 0120 +174 +051 359022 022 008 001 00
143930 2602N 09616W 8430 01584 0117 +175 +051 355021 021 008 000 00
144000 2601N 09616W 8426 01588 0117 +175 +052 355022 022 008 000 00
144030 2559N 09616W 8429 01584 0116 +179 +053 355021 022 009 001 00
144100 2557N 09616W 8429 01589 0118 +178 +055 360019 020 021 000 00
144130 2555N 09616W 8425 01590 0119 +172 +056 002017 020 026 005 00
144200 2553N 09617W 8419 01600 0122 +171 +056 341021 024 028 007 00
144230 2551N 09617W 8448 01562 0117 +173 +056 001024 026 029 004 00
144300 2550N 09617W 8426 01587 0113 +176 +055 009029 030 028 004 00
144330 2548N 09617W 8433 01575 0121 +157 +055 002034 036 035 017 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

Hurakan I can pickup Hdobs anytime..ready to go.

[HURAKAN]

Hurkan I can pickup Hdobs anytime..ready to go.

Go ahead! Thanks!!

[Dave]

910
URNT15 KNHC 291453
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 31 20110729
144400 2546N 09617W 8433 01580 0131 +146 +051 335034 035 044 031 03
144430 2544N 09618W 8428 01581 0132 +141 +044 318027 029 045 030 00
144500 2544N 09618W 8428 01581 0129 +139 +037 320026 028 050 026 03
144530 2540N 09618W 8435 01570 0134 +136 +032 314028 029 053 030 00
144600 2539N 09618W 8422 01586 0138 +134 +028 317024 026 049 032 03
144630 2537N 09618W 8429 01582 0135 +140 +025 303025 027 039 045 03
144700 2535N 09619W 8432 01581 0140 +136 +025 302023 023 030 022 00
144730 2533N 09619W 8424 01592 0134 +151 +026 302021 022 026 010 00
144800 2532N 09619W 8436 01577 0128 +158 +026 294020 020 027 007 00
144830 2530N 09619W 8429 01583 0129 +154 +027 291020 020 024 009 00
144900 2528N 09619W 8426 01588 0129 +157 +029 292019 020 028 010 00
144930 2527N 09619W 8429 01586 0132 +152 +030 295019 019 023 012 00
145000 2525N 09620W 8429 01586 0126 +161 +031 296016 017 022 008 00
145030 2523N 09620W 8434 01582 0129 +160 +032 293015 016 019 003 00
145100 2522N 09620W 8426 01590 0131 +158 +033 291015 015 015 003 00
145130 2520N 09620W 8430 01586 0128 +161 +035 284014 014 018 001 00
145200 2518N 09620W 8427 01592 0130 +165 +039 286013 013 017 001 03
145230 2517N 09621W 8430 01588 0126 +170 +043 286012 012 015 001 00
145300 2515N 09621W 8429 01590 0125 +171 +049 285012 013 012 000 00
145330 2513N 09621W 8429 01589 0124 +175 +055 282012 013 008 001 00
$$

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

121
URNT15 KNHC 291503
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 32 20110729
145400 2512N 09621W 8430 01589 0125 +173 +060 280011 011 010 000 00
145430 2510N 09621W 8426 01594 0128 +170 +064 273011 011 013 001 03
145500 2508N 09621W 8432 01590 0128 +171 +066 264010 011 014 002 00
145530 2507N 09622W 8429 01594 0125 +175 +067 266010 010 009 002 03
145600 2506N 09620W 8422 01601 0124 +176 +068 247009 010 /// /// 03
145630 2507N 09619W 8431 01595 0126 +176 +070 240006 007 011 000 03
145700 2508N 09618W 8425 01599 0128 +170 +072 230008 009 014 000 00
145730 2509N 09617W 8432 01590 0126 +174 +071 241008 008 014 000 03
145800 2510N 09615W 8428 01592 0123 +175 +069 243009 009 016 000 00
145830 2512N 09614W 8426 01594 0125 +172 +068 243009 009 018 000 00
145900 2513N 09613W 8432 01590 0128 +170 +066 251010 011 015 002 00
145930 2514N 09611W 8427 01598 0132 +166 +064 255011 011 017 003 00
150000 2515N 09610W 8427 01595 0133 +162 +061 254011 011 020 007 00
150030 2517N 09609W 8431 01592 0150 +138 +058 252012 013 022 013 03
150100 2518N 09607W 8413 01603 0150 +132 +050 254017 019 042 030 03
150130 2519N 09606W 8431 01583 0140 +142 +041 263019 020 040 017 00
150200 2520N 09605W 8421 01598 0144 +139 +033 262020 021 037 021 00
150230 2522N 09603W 8408 01606 0144 +137 +029 243021 025 044 048 03
150300 2523N 09602W 8433 01578 0137 +143 +028 249020 021 059 048 03
150330 2524N 09600W 8428 01588 0143 +137 +030 270016 022 052 031 03
$$
;

[Dave]

823
URNT15 KNHC 291513
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 33 20110729
150400 2525N 09559W 8438 01576 0134 +148 +033 011009 012 048 021 03
150430 2526N 09558W 8423 01592 0123 +165 +035 356010 013 045 013 03
150500 2528N 09557W 8432 01578 0133 +145 +037 001008 010 032 012 00
150530 2529N 09555W 8422 01588 0132 +145 +040 331006 010 035 013 00
150600 2530N 09554W 8436 01573 0133 +146 +041 359004 006 040 013 00
150630 2531N 09553W 8423 01582 0128 +148 +043 006006 007 048 019 00
150700 2532N 09552W 8432 01578 0130 +147 +045 343007 011 046 018 00
150730 2533N 09550W 8430 01578 0129 +147 +046 341012 017 038 013 00
150800 2535N 09549W 8422 01584 0123 +156 +047 327011 015 031 007 00
150830 2536N 09548W 8432 01576 0114 +170 +048 334011 012 029 004 00
150900 2537N 09547W 8429 01578 0109 +175 +049 339011 012 029 000 00
150930 2538N 09545W 8432 01576 0107 +174 +052 326012 015 031 000 00
151000 2539N 09544W 8433 01576 0111 +173 +055 324012 013 032 002 00
151030 2540N 09543W 8428 01578 0109 +171 +059 325013 014 032 007 00
151100 2542N 09542W 8416 01592 0112 +170 +061 322015 017 034 010 00
151130 2543N 09540W 8431 01573 0111 +171 +062 331015 017 028 007 00
151200 2544N 09539W 8429 01578 0112 +171 +062 318016 016 020 004 00
151230 2545N 09538W 8426 01581 0107 +175 +061 320015 016 020 004 00
151300 2546N 09536W 8436 01571 0108 +176 +059 324016 017 019 003 00
151330 2547N 09535W 8425 01580 0113 +165 +059 317013 015 031 008 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

435
URNT15 KNHC 291523
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 34 20110729
151400 2549N 09534W 8427 01578 0104 +180 +057 318014 017 029 006 00
151430 2550N 09533W 8436 01570 0101 +183 +055 316014 015 019 001 00
151500 2551N 09531W 8428 01575 0100 +180 +055 322013 015 017 001 00
151530 2552N 09530W 8428 01572 0098 +180 +056 323015 015 019 000 00
151600 2553N 09529W 8430 01569 0097 +178 +060 322014 015 018 000 00
151630 2554N 09528W 8430 01569 0096 +180 +062 330014 015 016 000 00
151700 2556N 09526W 8429 01570 0096 +178 +064 336013 014 017 000 00
151730 2557N 09525W 8430 01565 0093 +180 +066 337014 015 018 000 00
151800 2558N 09524W 8428 01566 0085 +186 +067 335018 019 020 001 00
151830 2559N 09523W 8428 01563 0083 +187 +068 330016 019 020 001 00
151900 2600N 09521W 8433 01556 0081 +189 +069 328015 015 017 000 00
151930 2601N 09520W 8429 01559 0075 +191 +070 324015 015 016 000 00
152000 2602N 09519W 8426 01560 0071 +198 +071 325015 016 016 001 00
152030 2604N 09517W 8429 01558 0075 +189 +072 320016 017 010 001 00
152100 2605N 09516W 8428 01559 0075 +189 +072 321016 017 014 000 00
152130 2606N 09515W 8429 01559 0073 +193 +072 325014 016 014 001 00
152200 2607N 09514W 8427 01559 0072 +194 +072 329013 013 014 001 00
152230 2608N 09512W 8433 01549 0066 +201 +072 344013 014 017 000 03
152300 2609N 09511W 8424 01560 0059 +210 +072 354015 016 022 001 00
152330 2610N 09509W 8424 01556 0058 +207 +073 354015 015 023 001 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

Had to leave for a minute but I'm back!

[Dave]

189
URNT15 KNHC 291533
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 35 20110729
152400 2610N 09508W 8431 01549 0061 +202 +075 343014 014 024 000 03
152430 2611N 09506W 8429 01549 0063 +191 +075 320013 014 023 000 00
152500 2612N 09504W 8430 01544 0058 +195 +073 299010 011 022 000 03
152530 2613N 09503W 8428 01545 0052 +206 +072 302008 009 024 001 00
152600 2614N 09502W 8431 01542 0051 +207 +071 290008 009 023 001 03
152630 2616N 09501W 8429 01543 0045 +212 +071 300009 009 021 001 03
152700 2617N 09500W 8429 01542 0044 +211 +073 281006 008 022 002 03
152730 2619N 09459W 8429 01537 0032 +224 +073 224000 003 026 001 00
152800 2620N 09459W 8432 01533 0025 +234 +077 128005 006 016 001 00
152830 2622N 09458W 8430 01535 0018 +245 +081 118011 015 /// /// 03
152900 2624N 09457W 8425 01539 0018 +248 +087 128020 022 /// /// 03
152930 2625N 09456W 8426 01543 0022 +244 +091 130026 027 /// /// 03
153000 2626N 09455W 8430 01538 0025 +237 +094 131033 034 /// /// 03
153030 2627N 09454W 8432 01537 0032 +229 +095 134035 036 /// /// 03
153100 2628N 09452W 8430 01543 0039 +221 +095 134037 037 /// /// 03
153130 2629N 09451W 8431 01547 0047 +218 +093 132036 036 /// /// 03
153200 2631N 09450W 8427 01553 0051 +216 +091 140039 040 /// /// 03
153230 2632N 09448W 8425 01558 0058 +211 +087 142041 043 /// /// 03
153300 2633N 09447W 8430 01556 0067 +205 +084 140041 042 /// /// 03
153330 2634N 09446W 8428 01563 0074 +197 +082 139041 042 /// /// 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

813
URNT15 KNHC 291543
AF303 0504A DON HDOB 36 20110729
153400 2635N 09444W 8429 01564 0076 +201 +079 139042 042 /// /// 03
153430 2636N 09443W 8429 01565 0074 +205 +077 137043 044 /// /// 03
153500 2637N 09442W 8433 01563 0079 +201 +077 136042 043 /// /// 03
153530 2638N 09440W 8426 01574 0084 +195 +077 140045 047 /// /// 03
153600 2640N 09439W 8428 01575 0091 +195 +076 141044 045 /// /// 03
153630 2641N 09438W 8431 01575 0096 +192 +076 139044 045 038 002 00
153700 2642N 09436W 8426 01581 0099 +187 +074 140046 047 037 000 03
153730 2643N 09435W 8429 01580 0103 +185 +073 143047 047 038 001 00
153800 2644N 09434W 8428 01585 0111 +181 +070 146050 051 038 001 03
153830 2645N 09432W 8426 01591 0115 +182 +068 147049 050 036 000 03
153900 2647N 09431W 8429 01593 0119 +185 +068 149047 048 034 000 00
153930 2648N 09430W 8429 01595 0122 +183 +067 149046 046 033 000 00
154000 2649N 09428W 8430 01597 0127 +180 +066 148045 045 035 001 00
154030 2650N 09427W 8430 01597 0128 +180 +066 149043 043 032 000 03
154100 2651N 09426W 8446 01580 0124 +182 +066 147041 042 032 000 03
154130 2652N 09424W 8428 01587 0118 +177 +066 146039 039 034 000 03
154200 2653N 09423W 8437 01578 0117 +174 +068 144037 038 033 001 03
154230 2654N 09422W 8432 01585 0118 +173 +068 144036 037 031 001 00
154300 2655N 09421W 8429 01587 0118 +176 +068 145037 038 032 001 00
154330 2656N 09419W 8433 01585 0116 +180 +067 143037 038 033 000 00
$$
;