Next area of interest over Lesser Antilles

[Gustywind]

Rain showers are already affecting the southern Windwards...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Gustywind]

[Ivanhater]

I'm surprised no one posted the 00z Euro...develops it

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[KWT]

Different system I think Icanhater, thats for the wave behind, which may I add is looking quite tasty this morning...even more so with CMc/ECM both supporting development to a degree.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Not only does it develop it, but it looks like it could be a significant impact to Florida or the east coast.
Not sure if I am buying what the Euro is doing to the ridge though. I doubt it disintegrates that far to the east, and especially with such a "dent" in its western side. The Euro often turns things N too soon, and ends up adjusting westward. Either it underestimates the ridge, or strengthens a bit too soon. (or both).
But it looks like this could be another US impact regardless.

[Ivanhater]

Different system I think Icanhater, thats for the wave behind, which may I add is looking quite tasty this morning...even more so with CMc/ECM both supporting development to a degree.

Do you know if the wave the Euro and models are developing is a designated pouch yet. If so I will, or anyone can, make a thread for it to relieve any confusion.

[cycloneye]

This was the first post of this thread made on July 22nd and the wave mentioned is the one that is close to the islands right now.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN TRPCL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 15N28W TO
7N33W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE
AXIS. A SLIGHT RIDGE OF MOISTURE WITH ENHANCED VALUES IS EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

[floridasun78]

that not one near island that one on Euro more toward east we talk about one east leedwards

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 6 HOURS
AGO...AND IT IS NOW ANALYZED FROM 21N61W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE FAR SE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES S OF 16N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

[Gustywind]

Nice loop of this active twave spreading on the Lesser Antilles
rarrow: http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[Florida1118]

We've got 4 days of July left. Wonder if this will make a run for Emily

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 272345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N61W TO 11N65W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 58W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

$$

FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Latest weather information for Guadeloupe given Meteo-France Guadeloupe:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

The time for the next few hours on the Guadeloupe
Weather-France Guadeloupe Hello!
0645 AM The level of vigilance is: yellow for heavy rain and thunderstorms.
The tropical wave passes through the arc of the small Antilles and gives, by location, temporarily loaded sky.
In the 3 hours to come, little change to wait; the sky will remain very changing and showers will be locally storm and sustained.

Latest weather information for Martinica given Meteo-France Martinica:

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_mart.php

The time for the next few hours on Martinique

05: 30 PM, our Department is yellow "stormy rains" vigilance.

Our island wakes up this morning under an overcast sky and numerous showers. They are currently almost all of the Department. In the next hours, little improvement to wait: the rains, frequent, good intensity, take locally a stormy character. The East to Southeast wind is low lands and breath around 30 km/h on the terrain. The front of the more sustained showers, gusts are possible.

[Aric Dunn]

The wave is now entering the western carrib... couple models are hinting at something trying to get going. and convection is increasing atm from upper level divergence but should relax. there seems to be more curvature to the wave now so there is at least a possibility

[Florida1118]

The thing next to CA?

[Florida1118]

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a potential EPAC threat next week.