ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[BeachBumJen]

When was the last Hurricane to make a U.S landfall? It slips my mind.

Well if I remember right Nichole just grazed FL but was not a hit! Hermine was the last that made a dirrect hit I think....Memory could be off though

Neither were ever hurricanes though.

That's right they were both just named storms, wow so I guess it was IKE ...been a while guess we are a little over due!

[KWT]

I think 90L will do well to make hurricane status, I suspect the shear that is currently hitting it will ease off to much.

Still I think its quite clear this is a system at the moment, just what will recon find!

[CrazyC83]

What is the likelihood the storm could rapidly intensify in the Gulf into a strong hurricane?

[lester]

Alex came close though last year lol

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[plasticup]

When was the last Hurricane to make a U.S landfall? It slips my mind.

Ike in 2008 iirc

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Was it that long ago? Sheesh......

Yep, it's actually a record. 20 consecutive storms without a US landfall.

[Ivanhater]

I see models shifting toward Houston and Louisiana...good to see Wxwarrior back

I think we should remember Alex here, which the same models that go LA/SE TX also did the same thing, I think the same thing may happen here and they will adjust towards S.Texas.

I don't think this is the same set up at all..the high is shifting east to the Carolinas, not the set up at all for Alex.

[cycloneye]

What is the likelihood the storm could rapidly intensify in the Gulf into a strong hurricane?

The death ridge will take care of that from comming to fruitition.Also,some dry air.

[Dave]

Just waiting for the flight to start in approximately 40 minutes or so.

[KWT]

I don't think this is the same set up at all..the high is shifting east to the Carolinas, not the set up at all for Alex.

Yep totally different but certain models tend to have certain biases which showed themselves very nicely with Alex, I fully think the more southerly models will be on the right call...esp as HP's tend to get underplayed by the models, esp GFS/CMC...

That being said, because of the differences that you've noted, I'm pretty sure this will come in north of Alex, just not LA/TX border north...

[BeachBumJen]

Alex came close though last year lol

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Yes it did, it was a soaker for us here west of Houston! Brought lots of water! Would not mind seeing another storm like Alex!

[Brent]

Alex came close though last year lol

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and Earl

[lester]

Alex came close though last year lol

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and Earl

Oh yes Earl. I think I saw a cloud from him. ;-P

[NDG]

Even with the slight dry air intrussion from the N in the mid levels, it is continuing to refire convection right by the possible LLC. By the time Recon gets there in about 3 hrs we could very well have Don, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Dave,from what base they will depart,Biloxi or Keesler?

[ROCK]

As I said last night, RECON will probably go straight to Don today....JMO...got semi exposed due to some NE shear but it looks like its trying to get a CDO going...

[petit_bois]

Dave,from what base they will depart,Biloxi or Keesler?

Keesler is in Biloxi one in the same...

[KWT]

Do we know roughly what time it will reach 90L?

[RL3AO]

Do we know roughly what time it will reach 90L?

Probably about 1:30

[KWT]

Agreed NDG/Rock, with convection the way it is I suspect we will get Don very soon. Fully support the NHC in waiting for nrecon before upgrading, esp given recon is only a few hours later then thier latest forecast.

I'm personally thinking the 50-60kt range with this system, not sure if conditions are quite good enough for a hurricane, though I bet we get another was it, wasn't it type situations!

[cycloneye]

Dave,from what base they will depart,Biloxi or Keesler?

Keesler is in Biloxi one in the same...

Oh ok.I am in PR over 2000 miles away.