ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[jasons2k]

You can see it slowing here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[RL3AO]

What are the chances of this becoming anything stronger than a TS or CAT-1???

Possible, but slight. <10% IMO.

[cycloneye]

What are the chances of this becoming anything stronger than a TS or CAT-1???

It all depends on how the enviromental conditions will be at the time it tracks thru the Gulf of Mexico.

[JonathanBelles]

90L is wrapping up nicely tonight, and I think a tropical depression is becoming emminent overnight. As of right now I don't think a hurricane is likely, but could conditions get better to allow for further development? We'll see.

More here at my blog: http://wp.me/p1xnuB-3i

[jasons2k]

TVCN consensus is Port Lavaca. That raises an eyebrow.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sean, with you on we don't need anymore rain for awhile. Over here in Gonzales we have had a good 5-6 inches in the last 10 days or so, of course another 1-2 forecast tomorrow. While the track is steadily shifting north looks we could definitely be on the wet side. Plenty of moisture pumping north out of the gulf. Hopefully it does not pull a Allison and hang around for a few days. That will not help anybody. But of course not holding my breath as there is not even a llc to plot yet. So things will surely change.

Oh and ROCK I am sticking to my 18 1/2 in guns on that

[cyclogenesis]

-- 7 PM Update, Tuesday, July 26 --


Disturbed Weather centered near Yucatan Channel at:


-- 21.3° North
-- 84.3° West


Has slown down to a movement of West-Northwest at 12 mph, compass directional heading of 300°.


-- Inner Pressure of 1009 mb
-- Satellite T-number of 1.0 acquired = 25 kt / 29 mph
-- Ascribed winds 25 kts.


In addition to these above attributes,


-- A ship report, namely your Carnival Inspiration, reported a South-Southwest wind of 32 kts (37 mph) at 7 PM this Tuesday evening. One hour later, it reported a South-Southeast wind of 24 kts (28 mph), at 8 PM this Tuesday evening. Wave heights had escalated to 11 ft. This ship's position was near 20.7° & 83.6°


Scatterometry techniques (ASCAT) will prove useless, as there's too much rain splash convection near the center, contaminating remote sensing techniques used in modern day analyses. It's going to take a USAF Reserve Unit Aircraft to report ground truth as to a circulation. It has the convection; it has the winds; I'd desire a lower pressure than just 1009 mb, (which isn't really that low), but this is HOW surface pressures can fall, when convection develops overhead, affording it to deepen. What's left for question is confirmation of a surface circulation. Until your NHC can get an aicraft in there, I expect, they'll continue being conservative in their whole approach to this.


For those who missed my EARLIER, Tuesday evening, writing from July 26, you can find it right here at:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well now...if your following model trending towards Louisiana.

Uh oh.

Freak wouldn't worry to much. Don't think it will amount to much. Even if it goes in near Houston we will still get plenty of rain here. Which we don't need. Also there is no llc for the models to even latch onto yet. So of course thigs will change.

[Rgv20]

IMO future model runs will correct south, the furthest north I see 90l going is around Port La Vaca. We shall see what future model runs show.

[Weatherfreak000]

Well now...if your following model trending towards Louisiana.

Uh oh.

Freak wouldn't worry to much. Don't think it will amount to much. Even if it goes in near Houston we will still get plenty of rain here. Which we don't need. Also there is no llc for the models to even latch onto yet. So of course thigs will change.

Good point, looking like a Texas storm. The question i'm wondering though is why is it that earlier Wx47 predicted STX landfall...but the models are trending SETX. I wonder what is making the models change in that mode of thinking. I think perhaps the high pressure might not be strong. Too many questions.

[Ptarmigan]

Most models have 90L as a tropical storm. SHIP has it as a Category 1 hurricane.



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

Freak, think you answered your own question. Some models are seeing the ridge weaken a little, move east, and of course with that trough hanging around our coast that is causing the weakness to allow this to move more NW for the time being.

[BigA]

Yet more strengthening of the 850 and 700 mb vorticities, centered a bit south of the western tip of Cuba. 90L looks to have a vigorous circulation a mile above the ocean surface at this time.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... om=Z&time=

Wouldn't be surprised to wake up to clear indications of a surface circulation, but per usual, Recon has the ultimate say

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Wx_Warrior]

<<<awoke out of hibernation

Good evening gents & ladies!

What does the EURO say?

[ConvergenceZone]

I think tomorrow will be a very interesting day...Should form an LLC sometime in the morning and proably a TD by afternoon (if it keeps up at it's present pace).

[cycloneye]

This is the Cancun radar. You can see at the right side the circulation.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option= ... &Itemid=16

[HurricaneBrain]

Wx_Warrior!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Wow there definitely looks to be a circulation based off that radar, although that far out it may still be at mid-level. Tomorrow will be an interesting day indeed. Hopefully Texas gets their much needed rain, we're pretty soaked right now around here.

[NDG]

Most models have 90L as a tropical storm. SHIP has it as a Category 1 hurricane.



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Don't forget that SHIP does not recognize when a system is over land, when coordinates show overland switch to DSHIP.