ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1441 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:24 pm

850mb Vorticity has really picked up.

Image

90l should continue drifting NW to WNW for now.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22980
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#1442 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:24 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:I'm just shocked that despite the persistent convection this thing hasn't developed an LLC.


The problem is that the convection has not persisted over the same place, it's popping up here and there.
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re:

#1443 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:25 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:I'm just shocked that despite the persistent convection this thing hasn't developed an LLC.


The reason, IMO, is that the convection, while deep, is covering a relatively small area. The deep convection is at most covering 10K sq miles. In a system that is working its way down to the sfc...you would see convection covering an area of....say...40K sq miles...or more.

So...its a small system. It will take a while for the latent heat process to work...and for the MLC vorticity to work its way down.
0 likes   
Top
djmikey
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2010 6:04 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1444 Postby djmikey » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:27 pm

WOW...are the models doing the "shuffle"? Why are the models that spread apart? I thought they were in some sort of agreement last run...
Last edited by djmikey on Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1445 Postby crimi481 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:27 pm

Ah Geeze Marge...
I think its almost toast. Don't look right. Too much "stuff" around the system. Shredder...
Not being negative- as I am storm lover from way back. NHC being cautious for reason(s)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1446 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:29 pm

Thanks for the input Pro Mets
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: Re:

#1447 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:I'm just shocked that despite the persistent convection this thing hasn't developed an LLC.


The problem is that the convection has not persisted over the same place, it's popping up here and there.

That too :-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1448 Postby perk » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:34 pm

djmikey wrote:WOW...are the models doing the "shuffle"? Why are the models that spread apart? I thought they were in some sort of agreement last run...



That is not what i call consensus.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1449 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:35 pm

Good lord, This is what the model spread looks like.


Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1450 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:36 pm

So only the HWRF really spins this up but we know it usually is bullish.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and GFDL do not spin this up.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1451 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:38 pm

crimi481 wrote:Ah Geeze Marge...
I think its almost toast. Don't look right. Too much "stuff" around the system. Shredder...
Not being negative- as I am storm lover from way back. NHC being cautious for reason(s)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html


There is no shear there to shred anything.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormhunter7

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1452 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:39 pm

I feel there may be two centers... a midlevel that we see with the western convection blob and then a weak low (broad) surface center... in the IR2 imagery... it appears that there not stacked vertically.. with the surface more east of the mid to upper level low? Until this happens and the stronger one takes over and makes it to the surface and stacks up vertically, i dont think will see a structured system until tmrw?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html 20.8N 82.8W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html 21N 84.3W

Generally area lat/long
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re:

#1453 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:So only the HWRF really spins this up but we know it usually is bullish.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and GFDL do not spin this up.



The models have been horrendous this year. All of them. There is definitely a developing Tropical Cyclone down there, no disputing that.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145464
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Recon

#1454 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:50 pm

Frank2 wrote:I'm guessing that they may have to bump up the tasking to 12Z tomorrow morning if the system continues to organize - perhaps NOAA might task something as well...

Frank


Think they will go as planned with plane taking off around 11:30 AM EDT.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:
Contact mf_dolphin

#1455 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:50 pm

Regarding the spread, I always compare the run date and time. In other words, look at the header on the graphic and compare 0000Z runs against one another and not 0000z runs against 1800Z runs for different models. In this case I would also through out the BAMM and BAMD since this is a shallow system right now. In will also help when (and if) we have a good LLC identified and input into the models. Just my 2 cents ....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#1456 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:05 pm

Great to hear from Air Force Met and Wxman57. Voices of wisdom in the tropical world.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Rainband

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1457 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:05 pm

I hope Texas gets rain from this. I also hope it isn't a strong system.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1458 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:07 pm

still looks good....RECON might jump to TS by the time they get there if it keeps this up....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Annie Oakley
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
Location: Texas

Re:

#1459 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:09 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Great to hear from Air Force Met and Wxman57. Voices of wisdom in the tropical world.


Ha! You beat me to it. In just those couple of posts they synced in their professionalism. It is a perplexing situation and they are showing their patience and observational skills. Science took over.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1460 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:17 pm

always watch the GFS ensembles for hints to where the GFS is going to do next run...New Orleans to Tampico and I am sticking to my 18in guns... :D
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests