ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[BeachBumJen]

I just thought I'd point out that a lot of places in the Beaumont area have received very little rain. Most of it seems to keep falling in the same places. Consider yourself one of the lucky ones. I did get some yesterday, but it usually misses me.

I think there are a lot of places in Texas, and east of Texas, that would welcome a rainmaker, without the high winds.

At this point there are some places that would even welcome the wind as long as it brought it's friend water with it!

[tropicwatch]

Some ship reports as of 0000GMT

[wxman57]

By the way, that ship with the NW wind at 25 kts at 21Z had a SE wind at 20 kts at 18Z and now has a SE wind at 15 kts. Clearly they made a typo in their wind direction section at 21Z. I don't see any LLC yet, but I think it will be a TD when recon arrives at 18Z tomorrow.

[HurricaneBrain]

By the way, that ship with the NW wind at 25 kts at 21Z had a SE wind at 20 kts at 18Z and now has a SE wind at 15 kts. Clearly they made a typo in their wind direction section at 21Z. I don't see any LLC yet, but I think it will be a TD when recon arrives at 18Z tomorrow.

What chance (%) would you give this to becoming Don?

[HurricaneBrain]

Some ship reports as of 0000GMT

http://tropicwatch.info/ship.jpg

I wonder how long it's going to continue in that NW direction and how fast...

[tropicwatch]

Some ship reports as of 0000GMT

http://tropicwatch.info/ship.jpg

I wonder how long it's going to continue in that NW direction and how fast...

Only time will tell

[crimi481]

Anyone think it will join the "ring of fire" - to its west (over Yucatan) - and get entrained into the southern part of the hifg's semi circle? Become part of S,W, Monsoon?
Hope not - but seems to be trend
May think I'm nutso - but I think its starting to do so? Ya Dink?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[BeachBumJen]

What chance (%) would you give this to becoming Don?

At this point I'd have to say 40%

[vbhoutex]

After taking a look at the latest sat loops, I have to agree that there is not LLC at this point, especially with those wind reports thrown in. What I do see is sustained robust convection around/over a well defined MLC and that almost certainly will drive a LLC to the surface by the morning if not sooner. TD by recon like Wxman57 said seems almost a sure bet at this point. I don't see anything out in front of 90L at this point that would inhibit it much as it develops. As they say the trend is your friend, BUT if the trend I think I am seeing continues someone along the Gulf Coast from LA westward down to N Mexico is probably looking at a strong TS at a minimum when this system landfalls.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EVERYONE along the GOM should already have their kits ready. If you don't, then do it tomorrow. Better safe than sorry.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track


AL, 90, 2011072700, , BEST, 0, 213N, 843W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[HURAKAN]

90L and the Greater Antilles

[HurricaneBrain]

My personal chances on this becoming Don are 80%. This is based on all model intensity forecasts and a gut feeling that recon will find something.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 270101
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0101 UTC WED JUL 27 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110727 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110727  0000   110727  1200   110728  0000   110728  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.3N  84.3W   22.2N  86.1W   23.4N  87.5W   24.5N  89.1W
BAMD    21.3N  84.3W   21.9N  85.9W   22.6N  87.7W   23.3N  89.6W
BAMM    21.3N  84.3W   22.1N  86.0W   22.9N  87.6W   23.8N  89.3W
LBAR    21.3N  84.3W   22.2N  86.0W   23.3N  88.0W   24.5N  90.2W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110729  0000   110730  0000   110731  0000   110801  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.7N  90.5W   27.8N  93.8W   29.9N  97.4W   32.0N 100.5W
BAMD    23.9N  91.7W   25.1N  96.3W   26.1N 101.4W   27.4N 106.5W
BAMM    24.8N  91.2W   26.5N  95.3W   28.0N 100.0W   29.6N 104.3W
LBAR    25.6N  92.3W   27.9N  96.4W   29.8N 100.3W   31.2N 103.9W
SHIP        49KTS          58KTS          64KTS          68KTS
DSHP        49KTS          58KTS          35KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.3N LONCUR =  84.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  20.2N LONM12 =  82.4W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  19.1N LONM24 =  79.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[gatorcane]

Hmmm.... I would give it higher than 40 but something is not right. No models are spinning this up.

And when no models are spinning this up, you have to wonder. I have learned models are generally smarter than me.

Had the gfs or ecmwf been bullish we would definitely see a code red right now.

By the way the HWRF always seems too bullish.

[HURAKAN]

0Z position

[HurricaneBrain]

Hmmm.... I would give it higher than 40 but something is not right. No models are spinning this up.

And when no models are spinning this up, you have to wonder. I have learned models are generally smarter than me.

Had the gfs or ecmwf been bullish we would definitely see a code red right now.

Model intensity models agree on a strong tropical storm in 72 hours. The models didn't even show this until last night/today and remember, they never forecasted Bret or Cindy to develop. Some models usually aren't specialized on intensity, mostly just the overall track.

[gatorcane]

Hmmm.... I would give it higher than 40 but something is not right. No models are spinning this up.

And when no models are spinning this up, you have to wonder. I have learned models are generally smarter than me.

Had the gfs or ecmwf been bullish we would definitely see a code red right now.

Model intensity models agree on a strong tropical storm in 72 hours. The models didn't even show this until last night/today and remember, they never forecasted Bret or Cindy to develop. Some models usually aren't specialized on intensity, mostly just the overall track.

Until I see the GFS or ECMWF on board, I am going to be skeptical.

Plus Brett and Cindy were so tiny. Did they ever really classify

[wxman57]

Hmmm.... I would give it higher than 40 but something is not right. No models are spinning this up.

And when no models are spinning this up, you have to wonder. I have learned models are generally smarter than me.

Had the gfs or ecmwf been bullish we would definitely see a code red right now.

By the way the HWRF always seems too bullish.

And that's why I think the NHC forecasters are reluctant to go higher on development. However, you have to go with what you're observing not what the models are saying. This is a relatively small system that may not be initialized well in the models. Looks like a TC on the verge of development to me.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm just shocked that despite the persistent convection this thing hasn't developed an LLC.

[Macrocane]

I have to say that I didn't believe that this system was going to look that good a few days ago, it has maintained the convection for more than 24 hours, it has a good spin and you can see some inflow channels, it only lacks good outflow to get going IMO. The models have done a bad job predicting cyclogenesis in the Atlantic this season hopefully they will be better in the peak.