ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

18z Nogaps - Houston.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072618&set=Tropical

Unless I am missing something that shows a tiny minimal TS at best into our area. I find that hard to believe given the current conditions and the expected improvement in them as 90L treks across the GOM. I don't want anything more than the rain from this system but since beggars can't be choosers I would maybe take a strong TS as long as we get plenty of rain. We'll know a lot more in 3 days.

[ROCK]

There was only one ship report of winds out of the west at 25 knots. If there is anything closed at the surface it would have to be a very small radius. There were some low clouds getting pulled in under the convection earlier which can be deceptive. Of course everyone knows that if a low closes off in the Caribbean and recon isn't there, it's still an open wave

thats the best tropical wave I have ever seen..... last night it was the best non-invest tropical wave I had ever seen....tomorrow maybe will be the best non-TD I have ever seen....

[HurricaneBrain]

I think you guys are being a little bullish. There is no LLC, the convection may be temporary, there is sheer ahead, and the models aren't convinced that this will spin up quickly.

You said:
1. No LLC - A developing LLC seems to be taking place, if not soon.
2. Temporary Convection - I don't think this is temporary, look how it held up since last night!
3. "Sheer" Ahead - Models decrease shear later on. Still should be shear, but not enough to prevent this from becoming Don.
4. Models aren't spinning this up quickly - True, but look at Bret and Cindy! Models have been terrible thus far and I've seen very many instances where a storm like this gets upgraded the next day.

[ROCK]

Mid-Level ridging weakens over the western half of the GOM according to GFS over the next 2 to 3 days. 90L may ride further north than first thought.

500 mb GFS

yes it does but before I bite I want some consistantcies with this model....it has been hideous this year so far....

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL has landfall as a weak storm on Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18z HWRF has landfall at Corpus Christi as a minimal hurricane. Irak there it is for you!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

18z GFDL has landfall as a weak storm on Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

yeah Luis a sheared mess mostly likely....

HWRF...seems realistic...but it really depends if it runs into the easterlies I guess if it really strenghthens...

[HurricaneBrain]

Should be a recon statement at 2AM. If this holds the convection up and organizes more, they will probably investigate the area tomorrow and find a TD or even Don.

[vbhoutex]

There was only one ship report of winds out of the west at 25 knots. If there is anything closed at the surface it would have to be a very small radius. There were some low clouds getting pulled in under the convection earlier which can be deceptive. Of course everyone knows that if a low closes off in the Caribbean and recon isn't there, it's still an open wave

thats the best tropical wave I have ever seen..... last night it was the best non-invest tropical wave I had ever seen....tomorrow maybe will be the best non-TD I have ever seen....

Rock you have never taken anything except the BEST when it comes to the tropics!! That's why you come to S2K!!
I haven't followed this as much as I maybe should have today, but what I have seen is a definite steady improvement in structure all day long. IMO, if there isn't already an LLC there will be one soon. We are definitely at the starting line if not already off to the races. I will be watching this intently from here on out.

[cyclogenesis]

July 26, 2011
this Tuesday evening
709 PM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW weather writing on to my website (weblink appearing below), 7/26/2011, for which I have provided detailed information about tropical cyclone development during this last week of July. This was done on Tuesday evening, July 26, 2011, at 640 PM, CDT. The writing can be found by clicking on this weblink appearing down below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[TwisterFanatic]

I think you guys are being a little bullish. There is no LLC, the convection may be temporary, there is sheer ahead, and the models aren't convinced that this will spin up quickly.

I agree there might be no LLC, but it isn't far from one. This Convection has been going for well over 24 hours, I don't this being temporary.

Shear will most likely not be a factor with this. SHIPS has very little shear.

And I'm throwing all models out, they didn't see Bret or Cindy, and they haven't seen this impressive wave so far, so I am going to disregard them for the time being.

[ROCK]

There was only one ship report of winds out of the west at 25 knots. If there is anything closed at the surface it would have to be a very small radius. There were some low clouds getting pulled in under the convection earlier which can be deceptive. Of course everyone knows that if a low closes off in the Caribbean and recon isn't there, it's still an open wave

thats the best tropical wave I have ever seen..... last night it was the best non-invest tropical wave I had ever seen....tomorrow maybe will be the best non-TD I have ever seen....

Rock you have never taken anything except the BEST when it comes to the tropics!! That's why you come to S2K!!
I haven't followed this as much as I maybe should have today, but what I have seen is a definite steady improvement in structure all day long. IMO, if there isn't already an LLC there will be one soon. We are definitely at the starting line if not already off to the races. I will be watching this intently from here on out.

yeah I am pretty passionate about the tropics... ever since Alicia sent a tree into my window while I was asleep back in 83...I have been scarred for life...

[HURAKAN]

26/2345 UTC 20.9N 83.0W T1.0/1.0 90L

1st classification ... 25 knots

[HurricaneBrain]

26/2345 UTC 20.9N 83.0W T1.0/1.0 90L

1st classification ... 25 knots

Interesting!

[djmikey]

RAIN in Beaumont! Again! Daily occurence it seems! Love it!

Now on topic! Thanks guys for all you do and the info you provide! I work in a refinery in Sabine Pass and I read this forum like a bible daily during hurricane season! (Horrible Ike experience) Alot of opinions, BUT always the first to have the updates and news! I forecast and relay your info to our refinery for speacial weather reasons. Thanks again, and keep up the great work!

...when the last models came out, I almost could'nt keep up with the posts! lol...they were coming so fast! Just thought it was funny!

[tropicwatch]

Windshear has seemed to have settled down quite a bit.



Tropicwatch

[BeachBumJen]

thats the best tropical wave I have ever seen..... last night it was the best non-invest tropical wave I had ever seen....tomorrow maybe will be the best non-TD I have ever seen....

I'm with Rock on this one!

IMO This wave has had potential from the beginning, conditions have been some what favorable from day one.

Might have to plan a trip down to Galvez this weekend! Nothing better then watching a storm roll into the gulf. Who knows I might get a few great shots while I'm there!

[Air Force Met]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011
...HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.
[/quote]

Maybe I am being a little too picky...but wouldn't having a closed circulation MAKE it a TD? LOL...

Isn't that the purpose of the %? To tell us the % chance of that happening? IMO...it's better than 40...

[crimi481]

Looks like its merging with low to its North. Taking on very strange appearence?
Lits moisture/energy feeding in from w. Carib -and high moisture all around 90.
Possibly reforms near center Gulf?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-bd.html

[southerngale]

RAIN in Beaumont! Again! Daily occurence it seems! Love it!

Now on topic! Thanks guys for all you do and the info you provide! I work in a refinery in Sabine Pass and I read this forum like a bible daily during hurricane season! (Horrible Ike experience) Alot of opinions, BUT always the first to have the updates and news! I forecast and relay your info to our refinery for speacial weather reasons. Thanks again, and keep up the great work!

...when the last models came out, I almost could'nt keep up with the posts! lol...they were coming so fast! Just thought it was funny!

I just thought I'd point out that a lot of places in the Beaumont area have received very little rain. Most of it seems to keep falling in the same places. Consider yourself one of the lucky ones. I did get some yesterday, but it usually misses me.

I think there are a lot of places in Texas, and east of Texas, that would welcome a rainmaker, without the high winds.

[BigA]

Looks pretty good per the 00 Wisconsin maps. 850 mb vorticity (About a mile above surface) continues to deepen in an area colocated with the deepest convection, while the surface convergence map shows that the solid convergence is driving the convection.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... om=Z&time=

We could wake up to a tropical depression, though I imagine recon will tell the tale sometime tomorrow.