ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

^ Crazy storms here in Orange. Just waiting for the NHC to update in this awesome weather.

Ya'll are killing me! Enough with the bragging

Brown grass, slab cracks, NO Mosquitoes

Karl! Well by looking at your location info, you may be the one bragging in a few days when 90L comes around.

[southerngale]

We have a forum for regional weather discussions, comments, and obs. USA and Caribbean Weather
Join in!

Here's the thread for SE TX weather.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=110429&start=460

[Sanibel]

Finally a center burst.

[HurricaneBrain]

We have a forum for regional weather discussions, comments, and obs. USA and Caribbean Weather
Join in!

Here's the thread for SE TX weather.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=110429&start=460

Thank you for that and the Storm2k welcome last night.

[crimi481]

How about a little "dance" - with the low near Georgia. More north track
Will both low's merge in E. Gulf?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[southerngale]

Impressive looking banding coming from the Cuban radar.



^ saved image

http://tropicwatch.info/

[Air Force Met]

I see nothing on the high res vis or surface obs that leads me to believe we have anything at the sfc yet. We have a decent mid level vorticity beginning to spin and if the convection can keep going...that should work its way down to the sfc by morning given how light and variable the winds are just south of the convective burst.

[southerngale]

OT for a second: Great to see you back, AFM!

[ROCK]

I am really wary of some of these reports with no west winds....I think 90L is at the surface. Does a MLC generate this much convection in one general area over the course of the day? I dont think so. IMO, the LLC is so small and weak that only RECON tomorrow will find it closed. By then it should be TD or TS if it keeps going like this....looking good...

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ROCK]

this is the buoy off to the SW of the presumed LLC.....SSE winds which would be correct....pressure 29.80..1009MB

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[BeachBumJen]

There ya have it...40%

kinda knew they wouldn't go any higher then that yet!

But we will see what this little guy does over night. I have have a feeling we just might get another named storm by the end of tomorrow if not sooner!

[ROCK]

18z GFS:

not with that ridge building in it wont make it that far east.....18z is not always the best one to look at.....12z and 0z but that was back when the GFS actually developed systems....

[ROCK]

There ya have it...40%

kinda knew they wouldn't go any higher then that yet!

But we will see what this little guy does over night. I have have a feeling we just might get another named storm by the end of tomorrow if not sooner!

Welcome Beach... 3rd post so dont be a lurker we wont bite....

[ronjon]

18z Nogaps - Houston.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072618&set=Tropical

[Nimbus]

There was only one ship report of winds out of the west at 25 knots. If there is anything closed at the surface it would have to be a very small radius. There were some low clouds getting pulled in under the convection earlier which can be deceptive. Of course everyone knows that if a low closes off in the Caribbean and recon isn't there, it's still an open wave

[plasticup]

I think you guys are being a little bullish. There is no LLC, the convection may be temporary, there is sheer ahead, and the models aren't convinced that this will spin up quickly.

[ronjon]

Mid-Level ridging weakens over the western half of the GOM according to GFS over the next 2 to 3 days. 90L may ride further north than first thought.

500 mb GFS

[Dean4Storms]

Impressed with the organization and refiring convective bursts. Agree with AFM that I don't see any signs of a surface circulation as of yet but that could change in a hurry overnight if the convection continues and deepens. Looks like a small system and they can develop quickly with enough strong convection to get the circulation down to the surface, won't take much.

I don't trust models with track until we have a closed LLC initialized into them. Don't know with it being so small that a deeper system pressure wise turns into the ridge as much. We will see.

[ROCK]

I think you guys are being a little bullish. There is no LLC, the convection may be temporary, there is sheer ahead, and the models aren't convinced that this will spin up quickly.

the models? the models did even see this until today. the SHIPS shear forecast is smooth sailing...the convection has been over the COC all day.....

bullish? I think not.... more like observing the conditions we are seeing.