ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[ROCK]

CMC on board Rock?

Canadian still shows nothing.

has the 0z ran yet?

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, its all quiet

[South Texas Storms]

Where can I view the GFDL and HWRF models online when they're updating?

[tropicwatch]

The BAMD, BAMM, BAMS and CLP5 have picked invest 90 back up at 0000z 07/26. I'm guessing more will pick back up in the morning.

Tropicwatch

'

[TwisterFanatic]

That one cluster over the COC staying persistent, and other cells beginning to fire off to the west of the COC.

[NDG]

Now 10%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[ROCK]

10% seems low still...I would have gone at least 40% with the current sat view....

[NDG]

Going to bed, I don't think they ran the GFDL & HWRF tonight, they should had been out by now.

[South Texas Storms]

Agreed Rock. Still a little too conservative imo especially with the current satellite view and now more model support with the 0z runs.

[South Texas Storms]

Rock you staying up for the Euro tonight?
I'm currently debating...

[Migle]

10% seems low still...I would have gone at least 40% with the current sat view....

They should start to gradually raise it. I doubt they wanted to make a huge jump from Near 0% to 40% in just one advisory.

[ROCK]

That one cluster over the COC staying persistent, and other cells beginning to fire off to the west of the COC.

that is the area I was saying had the cold cloud tower earlier. IMO 90L might have made contact in that area.

[TwisterFanatic]

10% seems low still...I would have gone at least 40% with the current sat view....

They should start to gradually raise it. I doubt they wanted to make a huge jump from Near 0% to 40% in just one advisory.

This. If it hold together overnight, we might see a code orange by tomorrow afternoon if this is still in tact.

[HurricaneWarning92]

10% seems low still...I would have gone at least 40% with the current sat view....

They should start to gradually raise it. I doubt they wanted to make a huge jump from Near 0% to 40% in just one advisory.

This. If it hold together overnight, we might see a code orange by tomorrow afternoon if this is still in tact.

Agreed.

[ROCK]

Buoy close to Grand Cayman 1012MB steady with SE 10kt gusting to 24kt

[ROCK]

Rock you staying up for the Euro tonight?
I'm currently debating...

nah....I am done....early day tomorrow...its all yours...

[KWT]

10% seems low still...I would have gone at least 40% with the current sat view....

They should start to gradually raise it. I doubt they wanted to make a huge jump from Near 0% to 40% in just one advisory.

Yeah, its a step in the right direction, I'd probably say 30% right now would be where I'm at, but the NHC do have to be a little more conservative, even if it does come round and bites them (aka Bret being nearly a TS and only getting 40%!) but they generally do a surprisingly good job on these percentages so we'll see.

[TwisterFanatic]

Last post for me tonight, convection expanding, and still persisting. Will be interested to see what it looks by mid-morning.

[southerngale]

Convection continues to expand.

[southerngale]

Go to the model site. Right click the picture. Click copy image url. Then paste the link in the reply box, click preview, then highlight each link separately and click the img box under the title. Submit.

Hi, HurricaneBrain. Actually, we'd prefer it if you would upload the image first. Thanks for helping him out with how to post an image, though.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111217