ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

Nice, NAM takes it Northeast from 78-84 hours.

[Ivanhater]

84 hours Nam

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Convection over Cuba is waning as expected.

Additionally the overall convection for this invest just really is not too impressive plus over the last couple of hours you can see the southern side getting undercut by those 250 mb winds out if the west.

There is a small concentrated area that some are mentioning but that could easily go poof also.

Not sold it is organizing just yet. The 0% from nhc makes sense. I see no chance it will be a named system within 48 hours of the last update especially with some westerly shear on the southern half.

I debated this with NDG earlier. Said the storms over cuba that made this look a lot more than it actually was were going to die off. Which as you said, they did. Not giving this much chance as every time 90L has had a burst of convection it has died off overnight. Thinking the same tonight until it proves me wrong. We shall see.

Of course the storms over Cuba died out...they were only forced from daytime heating. For the first time, this system is firing storms over the MLC....that is not from daytime heating over land.

I knew that and obviously gatorcane knew that as well. We were saying that because others saw all that convection blowing up and talking about how 90l was developing and looking much better. That was this afternoon before what is happening now.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks HurricaneBrain. I'll give it a try soon.

[Ivanhater]

Gotcha. The important thing is to look at the MLC, which is clearly getting better organized tonight.

[cycloneye]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

no msg

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Gotcha. The important thing is to look at the MLC, which is clearly getting better organized tonight.

I do Give it credit for what is happening tonight, but lets wait and see what it looks like in the morning. How many times has this and many others blown up at night only to be nothing come morning. Not jumping on the developing TD train yet, just watching and waiting.

[HurricaneBrain]

Thanks HurricaneBrain. I'll give it a try soon.

No problem!

[South Texas Storms]

When will the GFDL and HWRF models be run on this system? Shouldn't the 0z runs almost be done by now?

[cycloneye]

Another graphic of the 00z Nam.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[NDG]

[Javlin]

Gotcha. The important thing is to look at the MLC, which is clearly getting better organized tonight.

I do Give it credit for what is happening tonight, but lets wait and see what it looks like in the morning. How many times has this and many others blown up at night only to be nothing come morning. Not jumping on the developing TD train yet, just watching and waiting.

As Aric has mentioned definitly looks like something is try'in tonight in and about 20'N and 80'W.Have to see if it's still developing morso in the morning.

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

vort increasing...way more than earlier today...

[Ivanhater]

It's funny how the GFS has been playing catch up with every run....take a look at the forecast just 24 hours from now...remember the runs over the past few days. You could not even tell anything was moving through the Yucatan channel, now all of a sudden it shows a deep tropical wave. GFS has a dry bias in the medium and long range imo.

[South Texas Storms]

I agree. The past few runs showed just isolated showers in the NW Caribbean. Now it is finally starting to play catch up. The NAM had it down first.

[Ivanhater]

Still blowing over the MLC

[South Texas Storms]

Michael do you think that this will possibly cause a LLC to form later tonight?

[NDG]

00z gfs is also slightly stronger with its H85 vorticity than its previous 18z run.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Got to get off here, have work in the morning Anyway its way to early yet to be staying up late on here watching thread and model runs. Should get more than enough of that in the upcoming weeks.