ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Shear always wins over SST, if the shear is strong in the Gulf the system won't amount to much at all in terms of organization although according to the models it will be low in about 4 or 5 days, won't it?

Yeah it looks like thru 84hrs possibly beyond its going to be in an environment of low shear. I do not know why so many posters think their is going to be high shear in the gulf?

Maybe,they saw this sentence from the 8 PM TWO and that may be why.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT

[BigB0882]

Well a weaker storm going further north would be a PERFECT scenario for Texas and western LA if it makes it that far north. They need the rain so badly and since it looks like only a weak storm can go north they wouldn't have to worry about anything too major.

[HurricaneBrain]

Rgv please define stronger. Would a tropical storm or weaker come to TX and a hurricane to MX?

Tropical storm or weaker=higher threat to the Texas coastline.
Hurricane=more of a North Eastern Mexico threat.

Just my own opinion base on what I see on the models.

I was thinking stronger = Texas, weaker = Mexico.

[South Texas Storms]

Well a weaker storm going further north would be a PERFECT scenario for Texas and western LA if it makes it that far north. They need the rain so badly and since it looks like only a weak storm can go north they wouldn't have to worry about anything too major.

I agree BigB. That would be the perfect scenario for us Texans. I hope it happens.

[Ivanhater]

Convection continues to increase over the MLC tonight...good sign

[Rgv20]

Shear always wins over SST, if the shear is strong in the Gulf the system won't amount to much at all in terms of organization although according to the models it will be low in about 4 or 5 days, won't it?

Yeah it looks like thru 84hrs possibly beyond its going to be in an environment of low shear. I do not know why so many posters think their is going to be high shear in the gulf?

Maybe,they saw this sentence from the 8 PM TWO and that may be why.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT

I will be honest I have not read the TWO since yesterday I just knew they had it at 0% today

[Ivanhater]

Derek Ortt's take on his blog for the Pensacola News Journal ...he says it is getting better organized.
http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

[floridasun78]

i think nhc want see how area do doing night before their put 20% to 40% on system

[SouthDadeFish]

Derek Ortt's take on his blog for the Pensacola News Journal ...he says it is getting better organized.
http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

Didn't really give much of a prediction.

[floridasun78]

Derek Ortt's take on his blog for the Pensacola News Journal ...he says it is getting better organized.
http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

blog have date of 7/22/2011

[gatorcane]

Convection over Cuba is waning as expected.

Additionally the overall convection for this invest just really is not too impressive plus over the last couple of hours you can see the southern side getting undercut by those 250 mb winds out if the west.

There is a small concentrated area that some are mentioning but that could easily go poof also.

Not sold it is organizing just yet. The 0% from nhc makes sense. I see no chance it will be a named system within 48 hours of the last update especially with some westerly shear on the southern half.

[SouthDadeFish]

Becoming better organized. Flare up over the MLC:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Ivanhater]

Updated link with current blog made tonight

[floridasun78]

ok we go again pro and con back at it again some say it dead other say it looking better

[HurricaneBrain]

Convection over Cuba is waning as expected.

Additionally the overall convection for this invest just really is not too impressive plus over the last couple of hours you can see the southern side getting undercut by those 250 mb winds out if the west in the southern part of this system.

There is a small concentrated area that some are mentioning but that could easily go poof also.

Not sold it is organizing just yet. The 0% from nhc makes sense. I see no chance it will be a named system within 48 hours of the last update especially with some westerly shear on the southern half.

Looking at the latest radar loop, convection has done nothing but strengthened. The system shouldn't have to worry about those winds in the upcoming days...

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection over Cuba is waning as expected.

Additionally the overall convection for this invest just really is not too impressive plus over the last couple of hours you can see the southern side getting undercut by those 250 mb winds out if the west.

There is a small concentrated area that some are mentioning but that could easily go poof also.

Not sold it is organizing just yet. The 0% from nhc makes sense. I see no chance it will be a named system within 48 hours of the last update especially with some westerly shear on the southern half.

I could see where you're coming from, but in my opinion, convection is becoming more concentrated and is being driven due to some sort of circulation finally. Shear is forecast to let up in 18 hours according to SHIPS. As long as convection can remain throughout this time period, it could have a decent shot at developing.

[floridasun78]

i notice gator not gaving area chance from start let see what happen

[Ivanhater]

Convection continues to increase over the MLC

[Aric Dunn]

There is definitely concentrated convection developing associated with the MLC just NE of the Cayman Islands. longest any convection has maintained since it was an invest. surface obs still show a sharp wave axis that is moving quite slow now. with the deep convection starting to fire now it could be enough to get a weak LLC going over night.

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight's 0z NAM looks pretty reasonable to me through 60 hours.