ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[crimi481]

Wonder how all the inland -mid south "low's" - sinking south towards n. Gulf coast will interact with the Invest system?
Click link -then on top page click on -"fronts". Look how many "low's" are near N. Gulf coast??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-bd.html

[KatDaddy]

I too am not yet sold on MX however the ridge is forecast move W the rest of the week bring the 100s and higher back to Houston.

[BigB0882]

I heard Houston hit 100+ today. Crazy, it was only mid 80's in Baton Rouge but I guess the rains kept us cool. When I heard that I knew that no storms were coming this way and unless that heat retreats East, we should be shielded. I know many people need rain but IMBY we have gotten plenty and I am enjoying the cooler weather. I actually need it to stop raining so we can cut our grass. (ducking and running...)

[cycloneye]

Surely,warm sst's await whatever this system becomes.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't be sold on MX either. For one, there is not a defined LLC. Second, the Euro did show it moving right of the BAMM suite (it looked more aimed at the Corpus area). NAM was further north too. Third, storms in the Gulf tend to track to the right a bit, esp. if they are stronger. I think northern Mexico to the TX/LA border should keep a very close watch on this system - it's still very early with many many variables still TBD.

[South Texas Storms]

Yep that can only help this system.

[KatDaddy]

We have in the upper 90s to 100s for the last 2 months. It was 99F at IAH on the hourly postings so I am sure we hit 100F.

[South Texas Storms]

When will the 0z GFDL and HWRF models come out?

[HurricaneBrain]

I wouldn't be sold on MX either. For one, there is not a defined LLC. Second, the Euro did show it moving right of the BAMM suite (it looked more aimed at the Corpus area). NAM was further north too. Third, storms in the Gulf tend to track to the right a bit, esp. if they are stronger. I think northern Mexico to the TX/LA border should keep a very close watch on this system - it's still very early with many many variables still TBD.

GFS shows a TX/LA storm.

[South Texas Storms]

I wouldn't be sold on MX either. For one, there is not a defined LLC. Second, the Euro did show it moving right of the BAMM suite (it looked more aimed at the Corpus area). NAM was further north too. Third, storms in the Gulf tend to track to the right a bit, esp. if they are stronger. I think northern Mexico to the TX/LA border should keep a very close watch on this system - it's still very early with many many variables still TBD.

I agree with you jasons. I think you nailed it spot on.

[Rgv20]

I wouldn't be sold on MX either. For one, there is not a defined LLC. Second, the Euro did show it moving right of the BAMM suite (it looked more aimed at the Corpus area). NAM was further north too. Third, storms in the Gulf tend to track to the right a bit, esp. if they are stronger. I think northern Mexico to the TX/LA border should keep a very close watch on this system - it's still very early with many many variables still TBD.

Yeap 12zEuro has the 850 vorticity moving to corpus and the 500mb vorticity to 24n. Looking at the model data it looks like the stronger 90l gets the more likely it goes to Mexico.

[cycloneye]

The heat content is also warming at a good pace.

[Macrocane]

Shear always wins over SST, if the shear is strong in the Gulf the system won't amount to much at all in terms of organization although according to the models it will be low in about 4 or 5 days, won't it?

[South Texas Storms]

Rgv please define stronger. Would a tropical storm or weaker come to TX and a hurricane to MX?

[HurricaneBrain]

Shear always wins over SST, if the shear is strong in the Gulf the system won't amount to much at all in terms of organization although according to the models it will be low in about 4 or 5 days, won't it?

Shear should lessen a good amount tomorrow and there on according to models.

[South Texas Storms]

I think 90L is sitting in the warmest waters of the Atlantic right now. That is certainly helping it organize some imo.

[perk]

I too am not yet sold on MX however the ridge is forecast move W the rest of the week bring the 100s and higher back to Houston.

KatDaddy i'm not sold on the Mexico solution either, a few days ago wxman57 mentioned a scenario my which the ridge moved east and might allow this system to gain some latitude a little further up the Texas coast.

[Tireman4]

I too am not yet sold on MX however the ridge is forecast move W the rest of the week bring the 100s and higher back to Houston.

KatDaddy i'm not sold on the Mexico solution either, a few days ago wxman57 mentioned a scenario my which the ridge moved east and might allow this system to gain some latitude a little further up the Texas coast.

Yeah Perk and KatDaddy, I am not sold either. I am feeling what Wxman 57 stated too. Something we have to watch from Tuesday on.

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[Rgv20]

Shear always wins over SST, if the shear is strong in the Gulf the system won't amount to much at all in terms of organization although according to the models it will be low in about 4 or 5 days, won't it?

Yeah it looks like thru 84hrs possibly beyond its going to be in an environment of low shear. I do not know why so many posters think their is going to be high shear in the gulf?

[Rgv20]

Rgv please define stronger. Would a tropical storm or weaker come to TX and a hurricane to MX?

Tropical storm or weaker=higher threat to the Texas coastline.
Hurricane=more of a North Eastern Mexico threat.

Just my own opinion base on what I see on the models.