ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#841 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:37 pm

SHIP shear forecast is not a problem for this system.

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                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL902011  07/26/11  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    31    34    39    46    50    56    61    67    71    74
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    31    34    39    46    50    56    61    67    43    32
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    28    31    35    41    49    58    67    45    32
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        19    20    19     7    10    10     1    11     5    12    10    12     3
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -2    -6    -5    -5    -3    -2    -1    -5     0    -6     0    -3
SHEAR DIR        264   265   286   293   236   317   220   359    20    33    59    57     1
SST (C)         29.6  29.7  29.7  29.8  29.7  29.1  28.2  28.2  28.9  28.9  27.9  28.0  28.9
POT. INT. (KT)   163   164   164   166   164   153   139   140   151   151   136   137   151
ADJ. POT. INT.   158   157   155   155   152   141   127   128   138   138   123   124   135
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C)      13    12    12    12    12    11    12    12    13    12    15    11    15
700-500 MB RH     58    57    58    59    61    59    60    58    56    56    52    52    50
GFS VTEX (KT)      3     4     3     3     4     3     3     2     2  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    -8   -16   -28   -28   -32   -42   -26   -24   -15   -15   -10    -4   -18
200 MB DIV        21    22    -4    17     7     0    18     6     6   -11     7     2   -24
700-850 TADV       0    -4    -2    -3     0    -6     0    -7     2   -10    -2    -6    -2
LAND (KM)        193   261   246   214   145   114    26   162   317   344    77  -181  -431
LAT (DEG N)     19.2  19.6  19.9  20.2  20.5  21.1  21.8  22.7  23.5  24.3  25.1  25.7  26.5
LONG(DEG W)     79.8  81.0  82.1  83.1  84.0  85.8  87.6  89.6  91.8  94.2  96.7  99.2 101.7
STM SPEED (KT)    13    11    10     9     9     9    10    10    11    12    12    12    11
HEAT CONTENT      96    96    99   103   106    73     1    11    34    47    25     0  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  708  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  46.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   0.   5.  12.  18.  23.  28.  31.  33.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   8.   7.   7.   7.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   6.   9.  14.  21.  25.  31.  36.  42.  46.  49.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011     INVEST 07/26/11  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  2.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.2 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.5 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  12.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 130.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  64.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 100.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    21% is   1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     9% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011     INVEST 07/26/11  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011     INVEST 07/26/2011  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#842 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:38 pm

again that ULL off the EFL coast is help to vent IMO.....the outflow is improving...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp
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Re:

#843 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:40 pm

NDG wrote:BTW, I think they put the best track location too far south, it should had been closer to the 20th latitude if not more like 20.2N


I agree NDG - that's where the 700 mb vorticity is centered now. Interesting that when the 12z Euro and 18z GFS jumped on board with increased 850 mb circulation, we get a reactivation of 90L. NHC probably looked at the pressure drops, SAT presentation, increased convergence plus the models and said maybe we better get some models run on this thing. :lol:

I think the first suite of tropical models may be too far south based on this 19.2N positioning, Additionally, we need to watch the globals as they are hinting at weakness developing along the northern gulf coast which may pull 90L further NW.
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#844 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:40 pm

I am still not sold that UL conditions will be that great in the GOM other than when it gets in the extreme southern GOM, if the BAM models are correct with the track then it might stay away from the strong easterly UL winds from the death ridge.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#845 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:42 pm

Louis I would like to see some globals run on this that are more dynamic. I am not sold on MX just yet but I will go out on a limb and say FL to MX...... :lol:

not one of these models sniffed this out but the almighty NAM.....nice job NAM so far....I know Ivan would be proud... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#846 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:46 pm

ROCK wrote:Louis I would like to see some globals run on this that are more dynamic. I am not sold on MX just yet but I will go out on a limb and say FL to MX...... :lol:

not one of these models sniffed this out but the almighty NAM.....nice job NAM so far....I know Ivan would be proud... :lol:


Darn Skippy!
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#847 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:49 pm

Welcome back, 90L!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#848 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:53 pm

Now,let's see what HWRF and GFDL have in their 00z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#849 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Now,let's see what HWRF and GFDL have in their 00z run.


Definitely the GFDL. So far this season, the model has performed significantly better than past seasons.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#850 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:55 pm

On a side note, I hope we get a bit of a break after this with what the modeling is showing....August through October could be one heck of a ride :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#851 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:59 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Now,let's see what HWRF and GFDL have in their 00z run.


Definitely the GFDL. So far this season, the model has performed significantly better than past seasons.


I think so also....though intensity has never been its strong suite it has been better track wise.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#852 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:05 pm

The almighty WRF model spins it up :D

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#853 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:09 pm

Looking at the SHIPS shear forecast, it seems that if convection can hold together through the night, things should start to get going tomorrow afternoon. I'm still confused why the NHC has consistently been saying conditions are not favorable for development...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#854 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:09 pm

convection firing right over the COC.....if this sustains then it has or is forming a LLC.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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#855 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:14 pm

Taking a look at the forecast steering charts its interesting to see that a stronger system would tend to bend to the west than a weaker system. Basically the weaker 90l is the more NW it should go than a stronger 90l.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#856 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:16 pm

ROCK wrote:convection firing right over the COC.....if this sustains then it has or is forming a LLC.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html


Sense the Prez was interrupting my show, I took a gander and it sure is expanding convection over the MLC
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#857 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:19 pm

Back on track as expected. When will the new model runs be released? It has gradually become more organized and has definitely slowed down. The GOM will be much more friendly for Invest 90L. I still say a Bear Watch will be needed later this week. It will be interesting to see what the NHC says about the invest.
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#858 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:29 pm

Tonight's model runs should be interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#859 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:32 pm

ROCK wrote:convection firing right over the COC.....if this sustains then it has or is forming a LLC.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

What is over the Yucatan!?!?!?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#860 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:33 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:
ROCK wrote:convection firing right over the COC.....if this sustains then it has or is forming a LLC.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

What is over the Yucatan!?!?!?


Just everyday thunderstorms due to the heating over land
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