ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N73W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND HISPANIOLA AND CUBA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED FOR
THE MOMENT. REMNANT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NOW
ARE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
76W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS AREA ALREADY HAS RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EASILY MAY BE SATURATED ALREADY. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CUBA AS THE WAVE AND MOISTURE CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

[NDG]

Just catching up on the latest. I called this dead earlier and said it was time to look elsewhere. It is looking somewhat better and I do see the mid level rotation. However as others have mentioned think most of the storms popping over cuba are the typical late afternoon summer storms that fire off everyday. If those were not there looking pretty on satellite there would not to be much to look at. Lets give this another 4-5 hours and see what the storms due. My personal thinking is they will die off tonight and a naked swirl with just scattered storms around it will be left in the morning. If it moves slow enough in the gulf could strengthen into a quick depression just before landfall. Has a long ways to go. Of course this is all just a matter of opinion as there is nothing else to look at.

Most of the convection right now is over water, right near the mid level and or H85 vorticity.

[wxman57]

While I'm not impressed with the drop in pressure at the buoy as the wave axis passes (that's to be expected), I do think this most definitely qualifies for an invest. No evidence of any LLC yet, just a wave axis around 82W. The wave will be moving into an area that's more favorable for development in the next 24 hrs. Convergence and convection should increase as it slows its forward speed. It's a quite strong disturbance. Perhaps 20% development chances within 48 hrs and 40% after 48 hrs. Could even be higher.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NEARBY WATERS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Ivanhater]

While I'm not impressed with the drop in pressure at the buoy as the wave axis passes (that's to be expected), I do think this most definitely qualifies for an invest. No evidence of any LLC yet, just a wave axis around 82W. The wave will be moving into an area that's more favorable for development in the next 24 hrs. Convergence and convection should increase as it slows its forward speed. It's a quite strong disturbance. Perhaps 20% development chances within 48 hrs and 40% after 48 hrs. Could even be higher.

It is getting stronger in the lower levels...the 850mb vorticity looks the best it has in a couple of days

[KWT]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
.NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

Wow, haven't even slightly moved it up!

[NDG]

Not surprised at all that the NHC keeps it at 0%, not that I agree with them but like I said earlier this morning it takes quite a bit of evidence for them to take back their forecast.
IMO, if sat organization continues tonight along with continuing surface pressure falls and more global model support they might change their forecast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just catching up on the latest. I called this dead earlier and said it was time to look elsewhere. It is looking somewhat better and I do see the mid level rotation. However as others have mentioned think most of the storms popping over cuba are the typical late afternoon summer storms that fire off everyday. If those were not there looking pretty on satellite there would not to be much to look at. Lets give this another 4-5 hours and see what the storms due. My personal thinking is they will die off tonight and a naked swirl with just scattered storms around it will be left in the morning. If it moves slow enough in the gulf could strengthen into a quick depression just before landfall. Has a long ways to go. Of course this is all just a matter of opinion as there is nothing else to look at.

Most of the convection right now is over water, right near the mid level and or H85 vorticity.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif

Have to respectively disagree with you NDG. Look at the infrared loop of the caribbean. Yoiu can clearly see the rotation but most of the higher cloud tops are over cuba. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

IMO, if sat organization continues tonight along with continuing surface pressure falls and more global model support they might change their forecast.

Yeah, and to be fair whilst the models are a little more agressive, none actually end up developing a system out of it yet...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
.NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

Wow, haven't even slightly moved it up!

At least,they are continuing to mention it despite the 0%. In many ocasions when there are areas with 0%,they stop mentioning them.

[lrak]

the last visible satellite pic looks as if a LLC is just starting...IMO. I want some raiN and a good swell would be icing.

[NDG]

Just catching up on the latest. I called this dead earlier and said it was time to look elsewhere. It is looking somewhat better and I do see the mid level rotation. However as others have mentioned think most of the storms popping over cuba are the typical late afternoon summer storms that fire off everyday. If those were not there looking pretty on satellite there would not to be much to look at. Lets give this another 4-5 hours and see what the storms due. My personal thinking is they will die off tonight and a naked swirl with just scattered storms around it will be left in the morning. If it moves slow enough in the gulf could strengthen into a quick depression just before landfall. Has a long ways to go. Of course this is all just a matter of opinion as there is nothing else to look at.

Most of the convection right now is over water, right near the mid level and or H85 vorticity.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif

Have to respectively diagree with you NDG. Look at the infrared loop of the caribbean. Yoiu can clearly see the rotation but most of the higher cloud tops are over cuba. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

But the convection (storms) are over water right now, radar does not lie.

[ronjon]

18z GFS develops vort max near the isle of youth by tomorrow morning.

[BigA]

Radar signature looks rather good, very low official chance of development notwithstanding. Of course, those radar echos are probably thousands of feet above the sea.

[cycloneye]

A very important thing that is occuring is it has slowed bigtime,and that may help to start the organizational proccess.We will see in the next 6-12 hours what will occur.

[South Texas Storms]

Very true Luis.

I'm thinking if it keeps looking good then maybe this will become an invest again at 6z or 12z.

[KWT]

At least,they are continuing to mention it despite the 0%. In many ocasions when there are areas with 0%,they stop mentioning them.

Yep, probably know there is still a chance of formation down the line so may as well keep mentioning it.

[JonathanBelles]

The invest has been reactivated.

[cycloneye]

The invest has been reactivated.

Yes!!!!!

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[KWT]

The invest has been reactivated.

Another sure sign that the percentages will probably raised soon, I see no reason not to reinvest it given the convective increase and the slightly more interested global models.