ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#741 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:50 pm

NDG wrote:
ROCK wrote:that is not a ULL....this thing has multiple vortexs rotating around the main MLC...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


go to water vapor loop.....and animate


I am not saying that the system is an ULL, just that the vorticity wsw from Jamaica is in the upper levels while the mid and H85 vorticity is NW of Jamaica.


ah got it...didnt know what you meant... :D


that ULL to the NW off the EC is a big sucker and I think is aiding in some ventilation for X90L....
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#742 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:52 pm

ROCK wrote:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

not at the surface but close...


Look at the low level flow to the east of the wave and then look at it to the west of the wave...very fast to almost a halt.....there is your convergence :P
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#743 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:55 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

not at the surface but close...


Look at the low level flow to the east of the wave and then look at it to the west of the wave...very fast to almost a halt.....there is your convergence :P


yep...like you said yesterday...it likes this time of day.... :D maybe it will form a LLC this time around. I actually think land is helping this littler guy tighten up....
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#744 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:56 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

not at the surface but close...


Look at the low level flow to the east of the wave and then look at it to the west of the wave...very fast to almost a halt.....there is your convergence :P


I have been noticing the same all day. And what a coincidence... all of the sudden it started to organize :wink:

First time it has had convergence in a few days.

I'm interested in how much d-min will affect this system. Seems to be getting energy from the daytime heating over Cuba and Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#745 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:56 pm

ROCK wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

not at the surface but close...


Look at the low level flow to the east of the wave and then look at it to the west of the wave...very fast to almost a halt.....there is your convergence :P


yep...like you said yesterday...it likes this time of day.... :D maybe it will form a LLC this time around. I actually think land is helping this littler guy tighten up....


Up until today, it couldn't pop a surface low with it caught up in the fast moving surface flow...now the surface winds are piling up in the Western Caribbean....now it has a shot
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#746 Postby petit_bois » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:59 pm

the NHC has NEVER said this won't develop... just not in the next 48 hours... yall keep losing sight of this...
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#747 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:00 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#748 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:00 pm

not at the surface but close...[/quote]
Look at the low level flow to the east of the wave and then look at it to the west of the wave...very fast to almost a halt.....there is your convergence :P[/quote]

yep...like you said yesterday...it likes this time of day.... :D maybe it will form a LLC this time around. I actually think land is helping this littler guy tighten up....[/quote]

Up until today, it couldn't pop a surface low with it caught up in the fast moving surface flow...now the surface winds are piling up in the Western Caribbean....now it has a shot[/quote]

agree...LC is increasing.... the new map should be out in a few...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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#749 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:01 pm

IMO if it takes advantage of D-max tonight than it will have a real shot of development come tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#750 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:01 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Image



that is the best looking non- invest tropical wave I have ever seen.... 8-)
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#751 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:03 pm

A few days ago when 90L was weakening - 20/30%
Now when 90L looks better than it ever has with VERY favorable conditions ahead of it - 0%
Hmmmmm...
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#752 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:05 pm

Not as impressive:

Image
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#753 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:06 pm

I still think this is just going to be remebered as an Invest, not Don. Now, by me saying this, Ex-90L will form into Don, just as Arlene and Cindy did when I said they would die. So it looks like Don soon. :)

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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#754 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:11 pm

It seems to be coming together rather nicely right now. If it can keep this up, maybe we will have tropical models being run on this again at 0z tonight.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#755 Postby Agua » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:21 pm

From the image Ivanhater posted above, there's some turning NW of Jamaica. Can't tell from that image whether its mid or LL.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#756 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:24 pm

I can remember one invest that ALL of the models and the NHC jumped on the development bandwagon. I can't recall the invest but it received a ton of hype because it was one of the seasons after Katrina and was suppose to travel across the GOM as a major hurricane. My point is it works both ways.


Florida1118 wrote:I still think this is just going to be remebered as an Invest, not Don. Now, by me saying this, Ex-90L will form into Don, just as Arlene and Cindy did when I said they would die. So it looks like Don soon. :)

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Re:

#757 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:25 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:A few days ago when 90L was weakening - 20/30%
Now when 90L looks better than it ever has with VERY favorable conditions ahead of it - 0%
Hmmmmm...


I wouldn't say very favourable, better though thats for sure.

Think the NHC just noted that there was no real model support for development and the system didn't look that great when they took it down to 0%...things have improved since then and the ECM actually does slightly strengthen this again, so expect a 10/20% soon...and maybe re-investment...
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#758 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:27 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:It seems to be coming together rather nicely right now. If it can keep this up, maybe we will have tropical models being run on this again at 0z tonight.



Ya think? Considering it's current position and the fact that it could be crossing over into the loop current tomorrow night, or day after....I'd be running models now. I'm really confused why they took the invest down anyway considering it's proximity to those scalding sauna like bath waters down there. This could slip right thru the Yucatan pass and take off like a rocket.

:double:
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#759 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:28 pm

Agua wrote:From the image Ivanhater posted above, there's some turning NW of Jamaica. Can't tell from that image whether its mid or LL.

Not quite yet at the surface but at h85 definitely.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#760 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:38 pm

850mb Vorticity has increased in the last 3 hours.
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