ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[ROCK]

my thoughts on the NAM are its hit or miss...and it misses a lot but sometimes it gets one right. I look at the NAM really for whats going on in the upper air environment not for TC genisis....

I do however like to look at it for fun.....

[ROCK]

If tonight's NAM verifies it will be the first this year it develops a storm with no global model support, I lost count of how many ghost storms it has try to develop this year, lol.

show me the global who sniffed out Bret..... wasnt the jacked up GFS thats for sure....

[fci]

Is this still an Invest?
I don't see it on the S2K map which usually means one of two things:
- a named system or TD
- poof.
I know it has not strengthened so I guess it has been "poofed"?

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1

700MB vorticity.....850 still there but not as defined...mostly likely land interaction....

[cycloneye]

Is this still an Invest?
I don't see it on the S2K map which usually means one of two things:
- a named system or TD
- poof.
I know it has not strengthened so I guess it has been "poofed"?

As of the time I am making this post,even though, 90L is not at the graphic at top of forum, is still active.Is not at the graphic because since 18z of Saturday,no runs of the tropical models have been out and that graphic is automated with what ATCF does.

[cycloneye]

Cuban radar.

[ROCK]

90L needs to slow down and I think that is what is expect once it passes under Cuba...at this clip it will almost be entering the GOM tomorrow at noon....

[HurricaneBrain]

Should definitely avoid land tonight.

[TexasF6]

Bears Watching

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

[TwisterFanatic]

If tonight's NAM verifies it will be the first this year it develops a storm with no global model support, I lost count of how many ghost storms it has try to develop this year, lol.

show me the global who sniffed out Bret..... wasnt the jacked up GFS thats for sure....

or Cindy for that matter.

[cycloneye]

Bears Watching

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

[HurricaneBrain]

NAM brings it pretty far north...

[TexasF6]

Love it cycloneye!!! I think I sawr a mid-level circulation in the Dvorak animation....could be just my drought stricken eyes.....IMO...

[South Texas Storms]

Should definitely avoid land tonight.

Yeah I think 90L is just south of Cuba moving WNW. On that track, it should stay mostly over open waters tonight and tomorrow.

Btw it's convection hasn't diminished much compared to the last few nights at this time.

[ROCK]

NAM brings it pretty far north...

yes it does....more so than any prior runs...

0z GFS doesnt see sqat,,,,

[South Texas Storms]

Does the 0z NAM show a tropical storm heading on a general path towards the LA/TX coastline?

[ROCK]

Does the 0z NAM show a tropical storm heading on a general path towards the LA/TX coastline?

the 0z GFS shows 90L into the FL panhandle.
.

[South Texas Storms]

It does? I don't see that on the 0z GFS.

[ROCK]

It does? I don't see that on the 0z GFS.

follow the moisture....its not a closed low........

[South Texas Storms]

I don't trust the GFS at all right now. It didn't initialize its vorticity or current precip right at all. The NAM initialized 90L much better tonight imo.