ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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cycloneye
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#521 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:29 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Of course NHC will leave it at 10%. Why put it at 0% and possibly get burned? There seems to be a small window of good conditions in a couple of days so might as well wait it out until then.


Also,they have mantained the posible recon if needed,now slated for Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 84.0W AT 26/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 27/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#522 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:29 pm

Why have there been no model runs on 90L since yesterday at 18z?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#523 Postby TheBurn » Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:50 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#524 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:55 pm

I think this system has shown enough persistence to say it will probably develop if the big islands don't kill it.
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#525 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:59 pm

Good decision by the NHC not to kill it. We're still a couple days away until it slows down and reaches a favorable environment to develop, and also get away from the mountainous region.
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Re: Re:

#526 Postby CourierPR » Sun Jul 24, 2011 3:17 pm

perk wrote:
CourierPR wrote:Joe Bastardi tweets that this system has only a marginal chance of developing in the GOM.



Did he happen to say why he thinks that.
No, he did not.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#527 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 3:25 pm

I think the 18z NAM still likes its chances to develop when it gets into the NW Caribbean in a few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#528 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2011 3:28 pm

This post is to update the members about the status of 90L as of the time of this post.

90L is still active on the ATCF site,despite of the no tropical model runs since Saturday at 18z. When you see at the top of the ATCF site a 90L deactivated,that was for a March system. I will give a tip for the peeps about when the present 90L may be deactivated :) If you see a 90 below the March 90,that is when this present invest is deactivated.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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#529 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:05 pm

18z NAM, 84 hours:

Image

Brings it across the NE tip of the Yucatan, which really wouldn't disrupt what organization 90L might have at that time considering the Yucatan is pretty flat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#530 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:20 pm

It has mountainous terrain to deal with before it enters Gulf of Mexico. I think this week is make it or break it for 90L.
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#531 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:30 pm

One thing a lot of you all seem not to know about is that if a system isn't well-defined like a hurricane or tropical storm, land interaction will not kill it. Yes, it will hinder development, but in the case of 90L, land interaction will not kill it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#532 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:30 pm

I know there is a blow up of convection right now, but I am not sure there is anything left to be following at this point. It is not often I will write off an Invest, but I am real close with this one even with this blow up. If it doesn't develop, I at least hope the energy makes it into the GOM and "landfalls" somewhere close by and brings some rains. It does look like Hispaniola cut this one apart.
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#533 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:32 pm

I will side with Wxman57 on this one. Keep watching. I think Monday/Tuesday is the day to see if it is to be.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#534 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:37 pm

Massive Hot Tower firing over Haiti.



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Re:

#535 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:38 pm

Tireman4 wrote:I will side with Wxman57 on this one. Keep watching. I think Monday/Tuesday is the day to see if it is to be.



I agree. This wasn't even supposed to have to a chance to develop until it got to the NW Caribbean. It still hasn't got there yet. The next 2 days will be key for its development chances imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#536 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:39 pm

GCANE what are your thoughts on 90L's development chances?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#537 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:40 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I know there is a blow up of convection right now, but I am not sure there is anything left to be following at this point. It is not often I will write off an Invest, but I am real close with this one even with this blow up. If it doesn't develop, I at least hope the energy makes it into the GOM and "landfalls" somewhere close by and brings some rains. It does look like Hispaniola cut this one apart.


be careful VB.. :lol: 90L never had anything at the surface to rip apart....sure its not going to develope a LLC over the mountains but give it a chance tomorrow and Tuesday...possible RECON flight on Tuesday is very telling....IMO....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#538 Postby red herring » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:57 pm

That hot tower is just what the doctor ordered
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#539 Postby perk » Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:30 pm

Rock is right,there was never anything at the surface.I'm gonna give 90L another few days as wxman57 suggested.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#540 Postby TheBurn » Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:32 pm

Setting up for a comeback?

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