ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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perk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#441 Postby perk » Sat Jul 23, 2011 7:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.


Thanks wxman57 for your thoughts on development and guidance.
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#442 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 23, 2011 7:32 pm

Land interaction with Hispaniola and later with Cuba than wind shear looks to be the biggest inhibitor for further development over the next day or two.

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Last edited by NDG on Sat Jul 23, 2011 7:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#443 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2011 7:37 pm

NDG wrote:Land interaction with Hispaniola and later with Cuba than wind shear looks to be the biggest inhibitor for further development over the next day or two.

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I made the link as hyperlink as it was streching the post.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#444 Postby stormreader » Sat Jul 23, 2011 7:42 pm

You can see from the recent sat photo posted by NDG that it is starting to get "that look". Very unscientific, I know. But compared to the way the system "looked" 48 hours ago, I would say that it has become much more ominous.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#445 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 23, 2011 8:03 pm

stormreader wrote:You can see from the recent sat photo posted by NDG that it is starting to get "that look". Very unscientific, I know. But compared to the way the system "looked" 48 hours ago, I would say that it has become much more ominous.


There is nothing that lies more than a satellite image. Our brains are designed to recognize patterns and if it looks like a tropical cyclone, we think it's. But the true story is at the surface and based surface obs, this system is not getting any better organized at the moment. Pressures are high and it's running into high shear and mountainous terrain. Any development is likely to occur after it crosses the central Caribbean

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#446 Postby BigA » Sat Jul 23, 2011 8:17 pm

Vorticity on the wax again south of Puerto Rico, a bit stronger at the 700 mb level than 850

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Things thing is persistent; I don't expect anything until after it passes Jamaica, but then its a whole new ballgame.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#447 Postby tailgater » Sat Jul 23, 2011 8:51 pm

someone please show this shear. I don't see it in the wv loop or on CIMSS charts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#448 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Jul 23, 2011 8:59 pm

tailgater wrote:someone please show this shear. I don't see it in the wv loop or on CIMSS charts.



I don't see it either, I do see land interaction that is hindering this from developing further. The wave does look to have some nice outflow right now though.
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#449 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:11 pm

Image

10-20 knots, add 15 knots to compensate the motion of the system against the shear and you get 25-35 knots of wind shear.

Cindy was on a high shear environment but it was moving with the shear, so essentially it was able to partially cancel most of the shear effect and develop.
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#450 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:17 pm

Image

Santo Domingo, DR
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#451 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:18 pm

I see it now.. Really can't tell by looking at the WV loop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#452 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:19 pm

:uarrow: Very humid and some good CAPE (convective available potential energy) there.
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Re:

#453 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:22 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

10-20 knots, add 15 knots to compensate the motion of the system against the shear and you get 25-35 knots of wind shear.

Cindy was on a high shear environment but it was moving with the shear, so essentially it was able to partially cancel most of the shear effect and develop.


"Relative" wind shear is already incorporated in UW-CIMSS wind shear graphics.
If you look at Santo Domingo's sounding from tonight, it shows nothing but easterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#454 Postby tailgater » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:23 pm

I'm think that shows 10 to 20 kts. because of the different direction at lower and upper levels but not in addition to. The wv loop shows good outflow from 65w to 75w in the general area of this disturbance.
Image

Sorry NDG I didn't see your post before I hit send.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#455 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:28 pm

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Very humid and some good CAPE (convective available potential energy) there.


Yea, fuel is definitely not the problem for this system.
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#456 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:28 pm

Definite no westerly winds in the upper levels with 90L in the area of its H85 vorticity. 5-10 knots of wind shear max at the most is a good bet.

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Last edited by NDG on Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#457 Postby tailgater » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:35 pm

This might the main problem, as to why no development in the short term.
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#458 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:37 pm

Image

not much at the surface ... convection driven by divergence aloft, not much convergence at the surface
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#459 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:47 pm

So far through 72 hours, the NAM has went noticeably further south..

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#460 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:51 pm

Tonight definitely no 00z tropical models ran.
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