ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Blown Away]

The convection over the Butterfly Islands may on the NE side of a very broad cyclonic rotation speeding W or it may be where 90L is trying to consolidate and is moving WNW towards PR. If the low consolidates farther N near Butterfly Islands then a WNW track through or N of DR & Cuba is reasonable. Either way it is a hot mess!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[jasons2k]

If the vorticity gets on the north side of Hispaniola & Cuba away from the low level shear of the eastern & central Caribbean it will have chance before it gets into the GOM, but it still remains questionable, IMO.

I believe the Bermuda high will be too strong and 90L will be too weak to get on the north side of the big islands. I expect it to stay on a general WNW heading and slide along or just south of the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

It is now not very likely to develop anytime soon. maybe in a few days as it enters the western carrib or the northern half enters the bahamas

[Aric Dunn]

If the vorticity gets on the north side of Hispaniola & Cuba away from the low level shear of the eastern & central Caribbean it will have chance before it gets into the GOM, but it still remains questionable, IMO.

I believe the Bermuda high will be too strong and 90L will be too weak to get on the north side of the big islands. I expect it to stay on a general WNW heading and slide along or just south of the islands.

the wave axis is north and south of the islands it will likely get split by the greater Antilles

[Aric Dunn]

The convection over the Butterfly Islands may on the NE side of a very broad cyclonic rotation speeding W or it may be where 90L is trying to consolidate and is moving WNW towards PR. If the low consolidates farther N near Butterfly Islands then a WNW track through or N of DR & Cuba is reasonable. Either way it is a hot mess!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

unlike yesterday... 90L is showing no signs of any surface or even a low level circ. it has become very linear

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

[Blown Away]

It is now not very likely to develop anytime soon. maybe in a few days as it enters the western carrib or the northern half enters the bahamas

I believe the N half is what the TAFB shows as Possible Tropical Cyclone near N Cuba in 72 hours.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like development chances are going down by the hour especially because land interaction is going to be an issue plus the shear is on the increase now.

In the end the problem was the fact there was too much dry air and dust around when it was east of the Leewards which is expected in July though.

So far it's behaving about as I expected, though it has gotten a bit more north than I thought.

At any rate probably will end up just being another tropical wave that does not develop in the end.

Another win for the GFS over the ECMWF this year it looks like.

[lester]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 19.0N 77.0W AT 25/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 26/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[SouthDadeFish]

Although it looks quite disorganized... 850 mb vorticity has increased slightly over the past three hours according to CIMSS.

[Sanibel]

Caribbean's got it. It's doing its usual number. Looks like a late bloomer further west. Don't underestimate this from its looks. Timing's right for the season to be starting.

[KWT]

Another win for the GFS over the ECMWF this year it looks like.

not being funny but the ECM NEVER closed this low off, sure it did sjhow a fairluy healthy vort max rolling with thias wave but at no point did it ever actually developed a circulation, and the GFS didn't do a good job spotting this wave in the first place, the vort is still far higher than the GFS ever expected even in its weakened state.

[Tireman4]

Caribbean's got it. It's doing its usual number. Looks like a late bloomer further west. Don't underestimate this from its looks. Timing's right for the season to be starting.

Agreed. Way too early to write this off. Remember, until it is poof, we continue to monitor the progress...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

I'd say the potential just increased by having the models come under the islands. Just when the barrel starts aiming in that direction the Texas posts drop-off.


* Amateur opinion of an internet poster not trained in meteorology.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like development chances are going down by the hour especially because land interaction is going to be an issue plus the shear is on the increase now.

In the end the problem was the fact there was too much dry air and dust around when it was east of the Leewards which is expected in July though.

So far it's behaving about as I expected, though it has gotten a bit more north than I thought.

At any rate probably will end up just being another tropical wave that does not develop in the end.

Another win for the GFS over the ECMWF this year it looks like.

Keyword is it has behave as expected, could still be a player down the road in the GOM. Only one comment regarding GFS vs ECMWF, I never take a model run literally Its best to use a blend of ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, CMC. And besides we all know ECMWF is a superior model to the GFS...

[canes04]

as mentioned earlier the area near the butterfly islands seems to be consolidating nicely.
i expect this area moving wnw is where the surface low will forming later today or tonight.
PR should receive alot of rain from this system. I'm going with a TD or Ron by Monday morning as is moves past PR.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like development chances are going down by the hour especially because land interaction is going to be an issue plus the shear is on the increase now.

In the end the problem was the fact there was too much dry air and dust around when it was east of the Leewards which is expected in July though.

So far it's behaving about as I expected, though it has gotten a bit more north than I thought.

At any rate probably will end up just being another tropical wave that does not develop in the end.

Another win for the GFS over the ECMWF this year it looks like.

I totally agree with you, but then again it is July, and this is what is expected to happen in July. Not too bad though considering the next storm will already be the "D" storm.... With the upcoming land interaction, this BARELY has a chance to perhaps become something really weak in the end. If it was the middle of August, that chance would probably increase... Kinda cool for me though because I have alot to do this weekend, so at least now I don't have to check the board every hour due to my horrible storm tracking addiction.

[Ivanhater]

Seems we have a low associated with this wave now

[SouthDadeFish]

as mentioned earlier the area near the butterfly islands seems to be consolidating nicely.
i expect this area moving wnw is where the surface low will forming later today or tonight.
PR should receive alot of rain from this system. I'm going with a TD or Ron by Monday morning as is moves past PR.

I think you're onto something here. I'm not so sure we'll get a TD out of it that soon, but I think this area may surprise some people.

[canes04]

Correction, I meant Don.

[SouthDadeFish]

Radar is showing mostly linear rainbands. No sign of a circulation.