ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

With this system developing so quickly i assume it puts the central gulf coast/ florida at risk a lot more than texas or mexico?

I don't think it's developing as fast as people think. Convection is on the low side, and at least right now, no evidence of a LLC.

[vbhoutex]

With this system developing so quickly i assume it puts the central gulf coast/ florida at risk a lot more than texas or mexico?

I'm not so sure I would say it is developing quickly(even though I can see some argument for that looking at the IR), but if it does it may actually be more of a FL or E coast threat. If the ridge builds back in as expected over the next few days it would pretty much take the Central Gulf Coast and Florida out of the mix unless 90L does develop quickly and leave the TX or MX option wide open for a "slower" developing system. Remember this doesn't yet have an obvious LLC yet. Anyway you look at 90L it is going to be interesting and we all need to keep an eye on it.

[ROCK]

Just so I get the jump on Ivan.. ...here is the NAM at 84hr...dissolves 90L over the islands

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[tailgater]

I just got through looking at pressures in the area and was surprised to see that pressures are 2 or 3 mb higher in the area we are thinking development is possible. the wave axis is farther west as it was with Arlene(not real uncommon). But it does make me want to back off that 60% prediction from earlier.

[BigB0882]

If it tracks straight over all the islands then I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a toll on the system but the weaker it is the less land should interrupt it. However, that isn't a very big target so the slightest jog north or south leaves it over water and it would take even more luck to remain over land the entire time, more likely it would only be over land part of the way.

[ROCK]

the 0z GFS doesnt see squat....this model is doing horrible this year IMO....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_084l.gif

[BigB0882]

I figured it would have a downswing before it finally pushed to TD, assuming it ever does.

[bamajammer4eva]

Based on what the satellite shows and the xtrap, it would have to veer to the right pretty quick if its going to take a tour of the larger islands of Hispaniola and Cuba on a wnw course.

[MississippiWx]

850mb vorticity has weakened significantly since earlier. 90L isn't really too impressive at the moment. Was actually better earlier today during d-min.

[SouthFloridawx]

IMO... It's not looking very organized this evening. Maybe a drop from the NHC from 30% to 20% or 10% in the next outlook.

[ROCK]

nothing to special going on with this buoy.....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

[SouthFloridawx]

Or maybe watch the northern end of the wave for development to the north of the Islands. In a couple days, IMO.

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

still there but not as consolidated as before....

[bamajammer4eva]

IMO... It's not looking very organized this evening. Maybe a drop from the NHC from 30% to 20% or 10% in the next outlook.

Weird this image makes it look like convection/banding is expanding and organizing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ir2-l.jpg

[HurricaneBrain]

IMO... It's not looking very organized this evening. Maybe a drop from the NHC from 30% to 20% or 10% in the next outlook.

I think it will stay at 30%. I don't think a slight decrease in organization will lower the chances of development in the next 48 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

[HurricaneBrain]

IMO... It's not looking very organized this evening. Maybe a drop from the NHC from 30% to 20% or 10% in the next outlook.

Weird this image makes it look like convection/banding is expanding and organizing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ir2-l.jpg

It isn't as united as earlier.

[Migle]

942
ABNT20 KNHC 230535
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON FORMER
TROPICAL STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS.

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[TwisterFanatic]

This is your typical ups and downs of a developing Tropical wave/cyclone.

It's not as if the models were predicting rapid development of this wave.

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone staying up for the Euro tonight? I'm very interested to see what it shows as the GFS has been awful lately.