ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

They all seem to be in fair agreement until it reaches Cuba...then anywhere from the east coast to Mexico. Interesting week coming up to say the least.

[CrazyC83]

Could this just keep going west and remain in the Caribbean all the way to Central America?

[LaBreeze]

Slowly growing a bit concerned because I'm planning a trip down to Key West for next Wednesday through Friday and I don't want to be caught up in this should it possibly develop into anything. What's everyone's take on this - should I keep the travel plans as is or make some adjustments? Thanks in advance for any replies.

[BigB0882]

I think that if the model runs kept going out further we would probably see a bend to the West on the ones who go further North, don't most models show the ridge building in?

[ROCK]

yeah Frank...setting up under 15N.....very interesting


current low level flow is westward for now....
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

Could this just keep going west and remain in the Caribbean all the way to Central America?

no....it will gain latitude...need a LLC though to really rely on the models at the moment.

[tropicwatch]

Right now it has a fairly favorable upper level environment for development. If this pattern holds I think we might be looking at TS Don by sunday.



Tropicwatch

[Ivanhater]

A bit concerning at first glance

[SunnyThoughts]

Slowly growing a bit concerned because I'm planning a trip down to Key West for next Wednesday through Friday and I don't want to be caught up in this should it possibly develop into anything. What's everyone's take on this - should I keep the travel plans as is or make some adjustments? Thanks in advance for any replies.

Wow, tough call. I would wait until at least Sunday and see where everything stands at that time. If you can alter your plans at that late date that is.

[GCANE]

Could this just keep going west and remain in the Caribbean all the way to Central America?

Most likely it'll spin up in the Carib.

Once it does that, the gyro-effect of the earth's rotation starts interacting with the PV spin and it'll start imparting a northly force component to its track.

Of course, there are other effects that contribute to its track, notably steering currents from changing pressure ridges and fronts.

[cycloneye]

Michael,notice the track of TVCN,a very interesting one for sure.

[Chigger_Lopez]

It sure looks like it has taken a southernly jog in the last few frames doesnt it? At least the convection makes it appear that way.

[ROCK]

Right now it has a fairly favorable upper level environment for development. If this pattern holds I think we might be looking at TS Don by sunday.



Tropicwatch

looks like a start of an anticyclone beggining to take shape in that map....

[stormreader]

It sure looks like it has taken a southernly jog in the last few frames doesnt it? At least the convection makes it appear that way.

It does look like cyclogenesis will occur further south than some (models included) might have suspected. This thing looks more and more likely to be headed toward the Gulf of Mexico. My own suspicion is that the south Texas coast might be more in line to receive this system. But its still way too far out to narrow its destination down. I would think that all along the western and northern Gulf coast should stay tuned.

[ROCK]

A bit concerning at first glance

I am just waiting on you to post every run of the NAM like you did last year....

the TVCN I beleive is a blend of the globals, including the EURO...correct?

[ROCK]

1980 Allen comes to mind with this guy.....though the islands are in the line of fire right now....

one thing I observed down in SoFlo yesterday for work is that you guys sure build some big hotels right on the beach. Surely those have been built to withstand Cat5 intensity?.....

BTW- I highly recommend a visit to South Beach...some very nice scenery,,and I aint talking about the water....

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock, when the NAM shows something worth posting you know I'll be on top of it. Yes, it is a blend including the Euro. They can add and take out what models they blend. Is it me or is this season shaping up to be anything that has potential does form? Get ready for a barn burner August

[Blown Away]

Michael,notice the track of TVCN,a very interesting one for sure.

Luis the TVCN graphic is the same for the 18z & 00z? Curious why you think it's interesting? I do understand the NHC likes to follow the TVCN blend.

[stormreader]

Yeah Allen was an early season storm (though not this early---Aug 1 - 10). Another difference is that Allen was already a powerful hurricane by the time it reached the Lesser Antilles--having organized way out in the Central Atlantic. The storm that comes to mind for me would be Celia. Don't remember exactly (think it was July) passing through the channel and making landfall very near Corpus as a very significant hurricane. But still way too far out to tell. I notice that models seem to show a storm cruising slightly further north in the Gulf now. And I think the northern Gulf Coast is still very much in play (at least until further notice).

[cycloneye]

Michael,notice the track of TVCN,a very interesting one for sure.

Luis the TVCN graphic is the same for the 18z & 00z? Curious why you think it's interesting? I do understand the NHC likes to follow the TVCN blend.

Almost the same. Is interesting as it tracks South of Cuba after going thru the SW part of Hispanola.Of course,nothing is in stone as we dont have yet a bonifide LLC.