ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

This can go anywhere depending on how fast it organizes.

Yep, that is correct. Right now it isn't doing a lot of organizing from what I see. I'm not too sure it will for at least 48 hours based on what I see in the sat loops. After that it should be into the Caribbean, probably S of Hispaniola or possibly running into it. Once it clears that area in whatever condition it is in, I would expect the real organization to begin. I don't like the idea of a TC coming into Texas like some models are showing, but that is really what we need to even put a dent in the drought.
If it somehow organizes earlier than I expect it to then the whole East coast and N and E GOM could come into play. This is one invest EVERYONE on this board needs to be following including those experiencing it first, our islander members. Hopefully they will be telling us over the next 48 hours that it only brought them a few extra showers a some gusty breezes.

[Aric Dunn]

This system should not take to long to develop once some more convection develops. I already can see signs of a more defined low level circ.

[KWT]

Then thing is these systems nearly always jog WNW/NW for a brief time when they are developing, so it could well lift to say 17N by the end of tomorrow then jsut barrel north of west and you won't get a track that far off ECM's...though I think a track very close to the islands is more likely.

[Nimbus]

Wave axis seems to be a little ahead of the heaviest convection. The models shifted south on the track but its hard to initialize with no clear center just popcorn convection. The light shear off South America often doesn't let up till Jamaica so statistically fewer storms develop in the eastern Caribbean. Does look a little far north for Mexico though.

[vbhoutex]

Please please please come to TEXAS!!! we need a flood....otherwise this drought will continue and our farms and everything else will wilt and perish......models lookin good, but the intensity will be worrisome if the predictions holdout...

I feel exactly like you do! We have to get a flood from a tropical system to end our awful historic drought and why not it be this system! I also agree with you Florida as I would take anything up to a Category 2 storm.

I, as another Texan, understand what you are saying, but we went through a CAT2 in 2008 SE TX that was called Ike. I really don't need that for a break in the drought. How about we compromise on a slow moving strong TS?

[KWT]

Nimbus, there is some fairly healthy looking turning with the convection, whilst it may not be the strongest circulation I'm willing to bet there is at least some sort of low level troughing going on at the moment.

[NDG]

I am going with the 12z euro that the vorticity will go north of Hispaniola and not south.

[Ivanhater]

Nimbus, there is some fairly healthy looking turning with the convection, whilst it may not be the strongest circulation I'm willing to bet there is at least some sort of low level troughing going on at the moment.

No doubt about it

[South Texas Storms]

That would be the perfect scenario for us. I would LOVE to have a slow moving tropical storm hit Texas and break our drought soon! I'm just saying I would be happy with anything from a strong tropical wave up to a Category 2 storm.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF through the Channel

[cycloneye]

This afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO RESULT IN
CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE FA AT THIS
TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND OF INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. FOR TONIGHT...INITIALLY MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS REFLECTION BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE. BASED ON SATELLITE...TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE GIVEN VERY WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. THUS...EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINE UP IN BANDS AND
CLUSTERS...AND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...LIGHTNING AND AT LEAST SOME
MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
DECENT MCS WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAND MASS AND DECIDED TO LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SHOULD FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL WAVE TAKE PLACE OR BANDS AND CLUSTERS
BECOME TOO FREQUENT...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THIS.

[KWT]

The HWRF does a poor job clocking this system in the first place it still ends up developing into a TD by 120hrs.

[KatDaddy]

Here we go.....Brownsville AFD:

LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS NHC EXPECTS
A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEX BY NEXT THURS EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
ON FRI. AT THIS TIME THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN TO
THE TX COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Aric Dunn]

I am going with the 12z euro that the vorticity will go north of Hispaniola and not south.

if it develops sooner rather than later it will tend to move more WNW and would likely pass near or over PR and just north of Hispanola

[Ivanhater]

Looking at visible, convection continues to increase over the center and ahead of the system. Actually, it is increasing to the South and east of the system. I think we may be seeing it develop as we speak.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at visible, convection continues to increase over the center and ahead of the system. Actually, it is increasing to the South and east of the system. I think we may be seeing it develop as we speak.

Agreed. the low level convergence is clearly increasing and the circ appears to be becoming better organized quite quickly.

[vbhoutex]

Convection is definitely increasing with this system, but it still has to get through the SWerly shear coming off SA and get past Hispaniola before any major development takes place, imo. I may end up with crow later, but that is what I see right now. Definitely a broad turning starting to show also which wasn't there earlier today. For now I am holding to across the islands and into the N Caribbean and eventually into the GOM. If it makes the GOM I do expect it to be a West GOM landfall as a TC of some sort since the heat ridge is expected to build back S and SW over the next 48 hours. That should direct it further W than N. If it develops sooner, like within the next 72 hours I see a possibility/ probability that this could become a FL and/or E Coast problem. EVERYONE ON THIS SITE including the island members should be watching this one closely imo. I know I am.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am seeing some divergence of opinion about this system and what it will do. It will most definitely be interesting to see what happens, just for the discussions(and possible crow feast)as well as we all need to watch it anyway, no matter what it does.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 90L is showing signs of organization this afternoon, significantly noted by the 850 mb. vorticity from CIMSS. In addition, Satellite imagery shows that circulation is trying to consolidate some. Thunderstorm activity has been on the increase all morning, and should continue to with the presence of upper divergence.




12 hours ago


All considered, the 8PM TWO from the NHC should feature a medium circle, 30%, IMO.

[SunnyThoughts]

I learned a longgg time ago, not to put much stock into the early model runs of a system that hasn't even developed yet. Especially one so far away from the CONUS. Perhaps the models are correct with the western gom, and perhaps they aren't. It's always a waiting game and with each passing day, we will learn more and more. AS usual, I think the direction depends on the strength of the system and any weaknesses which may appear in the ridge (should one be in place).

[South Texas Storms]

It would be nice if the models could initialize it right and help us out with the track a little bit. They seem to be struggling with cyclogenesis in the tropics to far this season. I hope that doesn't continue for the rest of hurricane season.