Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[Hurricaneman]

This maybe a rainmaker for central and West Texas which would be very beneficial , but of concern for the Texas Shoreline depending on strength if this run comes true

[Ivanhater]

Here is the 00z Euro ensemble mean...still quite a few developing this, track about the same as the operational

[ronjon]

From todays global models, it appreas that the wave will move slightly faster and further south than what they were predicting yesterday - perhaps hugging the northern coasts of Hispanola and Cuba. If this trend continues, then the system likely won't get picked up by the trough off the east coast and may slide through the FL straits and into the GOM.

[Gustywind]

[Ivanhater]

View of the Nogaps

[Tireman4]

I do wonder what Wxman57 thinks about this. At least right now....

[Ivanhater]

I do wonder what Wxman57 thinks about this. At least right now....

He said a couple days ago this could be a player down the road and be a threat to the SE Coast. I am not sure if his thoughts remain the same.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Not good if this goes through the Straits. right now the models going to TX keep a weaker storm on a pretty westward track, despite the retreating high to the northeast. A stronger storm will go more poleward as it deepens. Quick development, and this heads up the FL east coast/recurve scenario. However, if it doesn't deepen until it is north of Hispanola and going through the straits, it will be a GOM storm. Not only that, but a stronger storm will be heading poleward towards the northern GOM coast. All the models seem to retreat the High eastward into the Atlantic at about day 5 forward, so a poleward opening will be available for the storm by that time.
This could prove interesting indeed come Tues/Wed when we have a better grasp on strengthening and synoptics around the storm then.
One thing for sure, if this does develop, it will have a huge swath of rain to contend with. It is already quite large without much organization. -it could be a Jeanne size storm (that took 3 days to pass through the FL penninsula)

[GCANE]

It should run into some strong CAPE air come Monday around Hispaniola, if it survives by then.

[cycloneye]

Here is the afternoon discussion of wave and effects by the San Juan NWS:

LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 2.5
INCHES OR SO ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLE SQUALLY AND
ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...AS LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[Ivanhater]

[JtSmarts]

Not good if this goes through the Straits. right now the models going to TX keep a weaker storm on a pretty westward track, despite the retreating high to the northeast. A stronger storm will go more poleward as it deepens. Quick development, and this heads up the FL east coast/recurve scenario. However, if it doesn't deepen until it is north of Hispanola and going through the straits, it will be a GOM storm. Not only that, but a stronger storm will be heading poleward towards the northern GOM coast. All the models seem to retreat the High eastward into the Atlantic at about day 5 forward, so a poleward opening will be available for the storm by that time.
This could prove interesting indeed come Tues/Wed when we have a better grasp on strengthening and synoptics around the storm then.
One thing for sure, if this does develop, it will have a huge swath of rain to contend with. It is already quite large without much organization. -it could be a Jeanne size storm (that took 3 days to pass through the FL penninsula)

Great analysis I also think this will be a large type storm, but If I'm not mistaken I think you meant Frances instead of Jeanne??

[Blown Away]

Not good if this goes through the Straits. right now the models going to TX keep a weaker storm on a pretty westward track, despite the retreating high to the northeast. A stronger storm will go more poleward as it deepens. Quick development, and this heads up the FL east coast/recurve scenario. However, if it doesn't deepen until it is north of Hispanola and going through the straits, it will be a GOM storm. Not only that, but a stronger storm will be heading poleward towards the northern GOM coast. All the models seem to retreat the High eastward into the Atlantic at about day 5 forward, so a poleward opening will be available for the storm by that time.
This could prove interesting indeed come Tues/Wed when we have a better grasp on strengthening and synoptics around the storm then.
One thing for sure, if this does develop, it will have a huge swath of rain to contend with. It is already quite large without much organization. -it could be a Jeanne size storm (that took 3 days to pass through the FL penninsula)

You always have a good analysis! I agree, models showing a shallow system miss the trough and head towards WGOM and a deeper system feels the trough and goes poleward, Nogaps.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

Nice loop.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[KatDaddy]

Yes me too Tireman.....Wxman57 thoughts. Tweet Deck should be active this evening as well as FB. The chatter has begun.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Not good if this goes through the Straits. right now the models going to TX keep a weaker storm on a pretty westward track, despite the retreating high to the northeast. A stronger storm will go more poleward as it deepens. Quick development, and this heads up the FL east coast/recurve scenario. However, if it doesn't deepen until it is north of Hispanola and going through the straits, it will be a GOM storm. Not only that, but a stronger storm will be heading poleward towards the northern GOM coast. All the models seem to retreat the High eastward into the Atlantic at about day 5 forward, so a poleward opening will be available for the storm by that time.
This could prove interesting indeed come Tues/Wed when we have a better grasp on strengthening and synoptics around the storm then.
One thing for sure, if this does develop, it will have a huge swath of rain to contend with. It is already quite large without much organization. -it could be a Jeanne size storm (that took 3 days to pass through the FL penninsula)

Great analysis I also think this will be a large type storm, but If I'm not mistaken I think you meant Frances instead of Jeanne??

haha, I debated which storm it was. They seemed to come back to back that year, with just a week's time between each successive storm we were contending with! They were like a lined up train that year for quite a run...one car after another.

[flwxwatcher]

From todays global models, it appreas that the wave will move slightly faster and further south than what they were predicting yesterday - perhaps hugging the northern coasts of Hispanola and Cuba. If this trend continues, then the system likely won't get picked up by the trough off the east coast and may slide through the FL straits and into the GOM.

Yea, who knows.. I have a feeling it's going to take a few days for the models to sort the pattern out around the U.S. The 0Z EURO had it getting caught in the Trough and brought it east of Florida through the Bahamas, the 12Z EURO hugs the islands and brings it into the Gulf via the Florida straits. Interesting week ahead it seems.

[SunnyThoughts]

Very interesting week ahead for sure concerning this system. Now is a great time to make sure you have all your supplies in order if you haven't already...everyone up and down the east coast, as well as the gulf coast.

[Sanibel]

Well, Arlene did sprout from very weak convection.