Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 16N47W TO 6N50W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
MOVES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TPW.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS VERY CLEAR ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AXIS N OF
11N.


$$

GARCIA

[Vortex]

12Z Nam moves it wnw over PR, NE DR and into the bahamas....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KatDaddy]

And so it begins. I feel confident Pouch PO7L will become our next Invest. Also its at low latitude which will be further away from troughing effects. Its possible this could become the next GOM threat down the road.

[NDG]

I don't know if I even want to mention that the only model from today's 12z runs that show development is Nogaps.

[ronjon]

I don't know if I even want to mention that the only model from today's 12z runs that show development is Nogaps.

Actually you could add the NAM.

Seriously though, none of the globals predicted Bret or Cindy's cyclogenesis - a point I made earlier - models are very poor at this.

[floridasun78]

Uploaded by imageshack.us

what is their saying over their? nws office about wave

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps strongest yet...Landfall SC at H+180


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[BigA]

The wave is entering increasingly high oceanic heat content, which, combined with DMAX tonight, could spark stronger convection. Biggest issue right now is dry air.

[Sanibel]

The convection is at the center of the twist, however the entire prevailing weather regime is very dry and unfavorable.

Too weak.

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 16N47W TO 6N50W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
MOVES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TPW.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS VERY CLEAR ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AXIS N OF
11N.


$$

GARCIA

what is weather office saying on island?

[Vortex]

12Z Euro...passes through the Keys and into the GULF at H+144...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

[cycloneye]

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what is their saying over their? nws office about wave

This was this morning's discussion by the San Juan NWS. Waiting for the afternoon one.

A FAIRLY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT IS NOT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHERE WE ARE GOING TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY A BIG AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT...WHICH WILL
PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THIS MOMENT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...MAINLY FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...AS STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAILS BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE.

[Vortex]

Euro H+192 into the Houston/Gal area... it maintains a weak reflection throughout but nonetheless...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

[Blown Away]

The convection is at the center of the twist, however the entire prevailing weather regime is very dry and unfavorable.
Too weak.

Yes, but the area is not nearly as dry as yesterday and when it reaches the islands the dry air won't be as much of an issue. This wave has slowly improved since yesterday and if the convection sustains, which it has for the past 10+ hours, we may see an invest within the next 24 hours.

[floridasun78]

wow their alot pro and con in this topic today let see who right few of you say we see ts few you say this wont be anything to worry about

[Vortex]

Once it passes 50W there should be an overall increase in organization, aerial coverage and deeper convection...Systems are notorious for flaring up significantly upon passing 50...Later tonight things should start firing...

[KatDaddy]

If it get as far W as the Euro 192 hour it could much more than weak reflection. I can tell you right now I dont want it in the Houston-Galveston area in 192 hours. Plenty of time to watch and recurve however I am leaning more on GOM issue rather than SE US with heatwave spreading E with more ridging developing over the E US over the weekend.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro showing a stronger reflection today....I remain impressed with this system.

[Vortex]

12Z ECM at H120 shows up nicely between Cuba and Andros island as it moves WNW...




http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

FWIW, we have the Euro in Texas and Nogaps in SC...Strenghtwise if we split the difference we'd probablly end up with something between LA and the FL panhandle.....