Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[tailgater]

Consistent showers in a low-shear environment is gradually heating up the upper-levels of the troposphere.

Its not flaring because it is not close to a TUTT to spark off shear-induced convection.

A nice, slow consistent brew.

IMHO, its got a good shot in a couple days to spin up.

Spot on. Due to it's size I don't see it spinning up to a TD before it gets past the Islands( probably never) and I also would be surprised if it goes as far north as most of the models are showing.

[TheBurn]

[Javlin]

Looks better than Bret this morning.I agree this needs to be watched low enough Lat., broad rotation and maybe some TS's starting to crop up.It's a sleeper.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

$$
MT

[northjaxpro]

I don't see this wave gaining much latitude either. This is going to head into the Eastern Caribbean as we progress into the weekend. It may have a shot of development as it approaches the islands. I am not sure about the long-term prospects though. The upper level environment may relax enough for the system to develop into next week. We'll see.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's discussion of the wave by Dr Jeff Masters:

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.

[GCANE]

Looks like the updraft from the convection is bringing back the LL vorticity.

[CourierPR]

What happened to the strong ridge of high pressure that everyone was talking about building in yesterday?

[GCANE]

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[GCANE]

Looking better on WV

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[GCANE]

NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DORA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 22/2000Z
B. NOAA3 0104E DORA
C. 22/1600Z
D. 19.8N 1110.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA
NEAR 21.5N 113.0W AT 24/0000Z.
JWP

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L for sure will be up in the next 24 to 36 hours if convection sustains.

[SouthFloridawx]

[tolakram]

Looking better on visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Florida1118]

Even if this doesnt develop, a "C" storm and a full cycle of Invests before August is somthing to notice

[RL3AO]

Hmm. First flight of the season to St. Croix?

[MGC]

Convection appears to be a bit more concentrated this morning....should continue to head on a westward track....chances of development are slowly increasing.....MGC

[Florida1118]