Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[somethingfunny]

00Z Euro won't give up the ghost:

It closes off in 72 hours:



Goes north of the big islands:



And then it collapses in the Turks and Caicos region, before catching the trough northwards in a weakened state:

[abajan]

It's just a little early for cape verde season. Maybe in a few weeks or so.

If the conditions are right, it doesn't matter what time of the year it is. Besides, I can recall the Lesser Antilles being threatened in mid to late July on more than one occasion. I would have to check the weather archives to tell you the years.

[KBBOCA]

Can someone post the link to the page where I can find the graphics & data for the waves with pouch classifications. I'd bookmarked it last season, but I'm not finding it - my bookmarks are far too disorganized these days!

Thanks!

[GCANE]

850mb vorticity has diminished somewhat overnight, but anti-cyclone is still overhead.

A small cell seems to be flaring close to 50W, most likely due to DMAX.

If it persists; the updraft, coupled with the anti-cyclone, should get LL vorticity to come back.

[GCANE]

Can someone post the link to the page where I can find the graphics & data for the waves with pouch classifications. I'd bookmarked it last season, but I'm not finding it - my bookmarks are far too disorganized these days!

Thanks!

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2011.html

[OURAGAN]

Convection is on the increase now

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion of wave from Crown Weather Services:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Tropical Wave In The Central Atlantic:
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic that I have been tracking over the last few days lacks convection this morning. The reason for this is because the dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer is undercutting any convective development. Even with that, I think the chances are quite good that this dry air will mix itself out once it gets close to the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Once this dry air is mixed out, I think we will see this tropical wave consolidate and strengthen into an area of low pressure by late this weekend and early next week as it approaches the southeastern Bahamas.

The global model guidance have backed way off on forecasting tropical development from this tropical wave. Even with this, the pattern is such next week that could favor a tropical disturbance tracking westward underneath a large ridge of high pressure and strengthening due to favorable environmental conditions. For now, this is a tropical wave that needs to be watched closely and there is a fairly good chance that it may never develop into a tropical cyclone; however, with that said, there is also just as equal of a chance that this system could be a real problem next week in terms of developing into a tropical cyclone. I will be keeping a close eye on this tropical wave and will keep you all updated on the latest.

[Blown Away]

Looking good now, should be mentioned today w/ a yellow polygon.

[SFLcane]

This TW is far from becoming a real concern for anyone but as a few others have mentioned this morning convection for now appears to be on the increase.

[Aric Dunn]

As was expected.. convection is becoming more consistent this morning as the environment is slow becoming more supportive of deep organized convection and this should continue. if we get enough convection today it would not take long to close off a surface circ.

[Blown Away]

IMO, if the wave maintains the moderate showers while moving through the dry/dust air, when it gets near the islands it may have a shot!

[NDG]

The tropical wave has gained some convection this morning but it is still very limited. It has a nice cyclonic flow but no closed circulation that I can tell.
It has fairly much lost all model support for development from last night's runs.
Looking at the euro closer it shows that if it tracks north of Hispaniola that it will encounter some hostile environment as it gets closer to the Bahamas thanks to an upper level low or TUTT ahead of it. This might be why the euro has backed off in development of this tropical wave, that when it gets into moister mid level environment it will then encounter windshear.



Upper level forecast by the euro for Sunday night, red dash line is forecasted tropical wave's trough approximate position, circled area is forecasted greatest vorticity.
This shows that it will encounter 20-30 knots of windshear by then, a far cry from the almost perfect UL environment that it will have over the next couple of days as it gets closer to the Leeward Islands.

[Gustywind]

[ronjon]

Models are generally poor with cyclogenesis so I wouldn't write this feature off at all. We'll have a better idea the next few days if it can maintain convection and develop a low level circulation. Proximity to land (i.e. greater antilles) may be a larger impediment than shear and dry air. This wave has a large moisture envelope surrounding it (seen easily on WV) which will mitigate any dry air impact.

[floridasun78]

it funny that some of you writing this off other say we need keep eye on it only thing i have say let wait and see

[RL3AO]

it funny that some of you writing this off other say we need keep eye on it only thing i have say let wait and see

Wecome to storm2k where its not uncommon to see the SAME person call for a depression by morning then call it dead the next afternoon only to call for a TD by the next morning.

[GCANE]

Consistent showers in a low-shear environment is gradually heating up the upper-levels of the troposphere.

Its not flaring because it is not close to a TUTT to spark off shear-induced convection.

A nice, slow consistent brew.

IMHO, its got a good shot in a couple days to spin up.

[floridasun78]

it funny that some of you writing this off other say we need keep eye on it only thing i have say let wait and see

Wecome to storm2k where its not uncommon to see the SAME person call for a depression by morning then call it dead the next afternoon only to call for a TD by the next morning.

ture everyone have own forecast

[cycloneye]

Interesting loop of the past 5 days of the Saharan air layer that shows most of the heavy stuff is to the north of 15N.

[Ivanhater]

Still an amazing signature. Regardless of model support, something like this makes you pay attention.