Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

ROCK · #181 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 10:57 pm

I think the SAL its dragging along is really undercutting it. Should mix out as it gets closer to the islands....I still think this will consolidate further south though....for now though its westward ho at 20mph.....

saw the CMC...

I look at that model first to sniff things out...then the EURO for track....

#182 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:06 pm

ROCK wrote:I think the SAL its dragging along is really undercutting it. Should mix out as it gets closer to the islands....I still think this will consolidate further south though....for now though its westward ho at 20mph.....

saw the CMC... I look at that model first to sniff things out...then the EURO for track....

Rock I know it's in the long range, but I like how the 12z Euro ensembles are showing a possible tropical disturbance tracking westward across the central Gulf at 240 hours. This gives me some hope that this could finally bust our historic drought.

#183 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:14 pm

ROCK wrote:
saw the CMC... I look at that model first to sniff things out...then the EURO for track....

We all make mistakes :wink:

#184 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:40 pm

00Z CMC

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/1103/00054g1northamericazoom.jpg

Sorry. The run hadn't finished updating yet.

#185 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:42 pm

That is the 0z CMC run from last night. Tonight's 0z CMC run will be out in the next hour.

#186 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:43 pm

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: That is the 0z CMC run from last night. Tonight's 0z CMC run will be out in the next hour.

It say's 21 JUL

The 12Z run says it's 20 JUL.

See here. This is the run I pulled from.

And here is the link...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

#187 Postby **Rgv20** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:47 pm

144hrs would be 0z Wed July 27. That graphic is valid for 0z Tue July 26.

#188 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:53 pm

When I went to the site I clicked on the 00Z run and the 00 Hour. Then I ran the loop. I verified that the 00 hour said 21 JUL. If it's wrong I'm fine, I can take it down. Just looked like it was the correct model run when I ran the loop.

#189 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:06 am

Ahhh. The 00 hour says 21 JUL and the 12 hour says wed Jul 20.

Maybe it's just the initialized 00 hour of the 00Z run. Oh well... We'll have to wait and see what it says.

#190 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:12 am

So latest 00z CMC does not develop this wave?

#191 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:15 am

Tonight's 0z CMC run has finished updating yet...

#192 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:18 am

Here's the CMC 0Z run @ 144 Hours. Not showing much there on that run.

#193 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:21 am

So, the 12z and 00z CMC runs for today are not showing development? Did the latest EURO still show development?

#194 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:25 am

I think the 12z Euro today tried to develop something but it moved it over Hispaniola and dissipated. The 12z Euro ensembles showed something in the Gulf though.

#195 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:29 am

South Texas Storms wrote:I think the 12z Euro today tried to develop something but it moved it over Hispaniola and dissipated. The 12z Euro ensembles showed something in the Gulf though.

Oh yeah, the 12z Euro did look like this wave died over Hispaniola. Interested to see if the next Euro develops this wave.

#196 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:32 am

Blown Away wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:I think the 12z Euro today tried to develop something but it moved it over Hispaniola and dissipated. The 12z Euro ensembles showed something in the Gulf though.

Oh yeah, the 12z Euro did look like this wave died over Hispaniola. Interested to see if the next Euro develops this wave.

Yeah me too but I can't stay up for it tonight. Maybe in a few nights I will!

#197 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:52 am

Convection keeps popping, acts like it wants to pull together, but just can't sustain the convection. Thinking the dry/dust air to the west needs to moisten before this wave takes off and that might not happen until it approaches the NE Caribbean.

#198 Postby **lester** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:53 am

It's just a little early for cape verde season. Maybe in a few weeks or so.

#199 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 1:00 am

I know the CIMSS animated imagery won't save in Tinypic, so I saved one to my Photobucket. It ain't pretty, but it will allow people to see what we're talking about later on, because this really is a remarkable signature:

It's also fun to see Dora, Bret, and Cindy on this.

#200 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 1:23 am

2:05am ...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W...AND
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

Their wording makes me think this wave's structure is improving?? Maybe we will start seeing the convection build and sustain??

Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

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