Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[ronjon]

18z NOGAPs takes it on a Hugo-like track.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072018&set=Tropical

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N46W TO 16N40W MOVING W AT 20
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A RATHER LARGE
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS ALONG
WITH OVERALL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-48W
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE WHICH CONTINUES TO PERTURB THE ITCZ AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE WAVE N
OF 12N.

[KWT]

I'd still personally punt on no development unless it can get deep either into the Gulf or into the W.Caribbean/BoC...then obviously that maybe a different ballgame.

It does look good though, I'd very sure if this was in mid August we'd have a player, in mid July, its maybe just a little too soon still.

[SouthFLTropics]

If that Nogaps run panned out and the ridge were to build back in it could mean we could possibly see the long feared Jacksonville or Savannah storm. Good thing right now it is pure fantasy land that far out.

SFT

[lonelymike]

Might be a nice rainmaker for TX. Though it'll probably go into Mexico with the Deathridge overhead the gulf states.

[South Texas Storms]

Might be a nice rainmaker for TX. Though it'll probably go into Mexico with the Deathridge overhead the gulf states.

That's exactly what I'm hoping for. A lot of rain for all of Texas and hopefully not too much wind. It looks like we are going to be tracking this for a while.

[lebron23]

Might be a nice rainmaker for TX. Though it'll probably go into Mexico with the Deathridge overhead the gulf states.

That's exactly what I'm hoping for. A lot of rain for all of Texas and hopefully not too much wind. It looks like we are going to be tracking this for a while.

Models show it around the Puerto Rico area by Saturday. Thats about 8-10 from Texas on a medium pace..

[Jevo]

Well with all of the models hitting on something coming out of this area.. I would say this it's right about that time

This system

[Blown Away]

There is so much dry/dust air in front of this wave, but it keeps moistening as it goes. Convection is not impressive at all, but it has consolidated more compared to this morning. Still think development chances are low, but as long as there is model support I'll be watching.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am going with the GFS solution at this point which brings this wave into the Caribbean with no significant development. Could be a player once it makes it into the Western Caribbean area though...I expect this wave to flare up and down though as it moves west.

I can't see how this will not miss the Caribbean as it is shallow and ridging is driving it West, maybe even a tad south of due west.

Link to 18Z GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am going with the GFS solution at this point which brings this wave into the Caribbean with no significant development. Could be a player once it makes it into the Western Caribbean area though...I expect this wave to flare up and down though as it moves west.

I can't see how this will not miss the Caribbean as it is shallow and ridging is driving it West, maybe even a tad south of due west.

Link to 18Z GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

No development is most likely, but if we get an LLC IMO it will come from the area around 14N/45W, which is moving W.

[HurricaneFan]

Still struggling

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Convection is a bit on the increase, but a long long way before it's even a worry.

[South Texas Storms]

I think it is maintaining itself pretty well right now. It will be interesting to see what the 0z models show in a few hours.

[Blown Away]

Joe Bastardi Twitter:
Tropical wave in central atlantic near PR sat, Bahamas after. Potential threat Fla, then perhaps gulf after. It has the look of trouble

[Rgv20]

Assuming this thing develops and the trough does not pick it up it has no where to go but west. This looks to be a trouble maker for the Gulf.

12zECMWF(Left)&GFS(Right) 500mb anomalies from 12zWed July 27 to Saturday July 30.



12zECMWF Ensembles at the 240hr, its very interesting that they are showing a lowering of 500mb heights right in the middle of the GOM. This just means that some of the Ensemble members are showing potential trouble brewing in the GOM.

[ROCK]

it is booking it west at a good clip and at a low lat....unless it consolidates further north my bet is carib bound for now...doesnt look good attm...

[Ivanhater]

it is booking it west at a good clip and at a low lat....unless it consolidates further north my bet is carib bound for now...doesnt look good attm...

Development will not take place until getting around the Islands at the earliest. With a signature like this, development looks good imo.

[ROCK]

it is booking it west at a good clip and at a low lat....unless it consolidates further north my bet is carib bound for now...doesnt look good attm...

Development will not take place until getting around the Islands at the earliest. With a signature like this, development looks good imo.

I agree....development is likely but with models all over the place I am not sure where that might be. Carib or above the islands...or even thru the islands..sorry Luis...

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock...the lid has blown off, a bit earlier than even I thought. The models never saw Bret or Cindy either..gotta love the models. My 'ol pal the Canadian likes this disturbance so I like it as well