ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180355
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 09 20110718
034530 2946N 08319W 4098 07439 0428 -155 //// 061017 017 /// /// 05
034600 2945N 08316W 4099 07438 0428 -155 //// 061017 017 /// /// 05
034630 2945N 08313W 4098 07439 0428 -152 //// 058018 018 /// /// 05
034700 2944N 08311W 4099 07436 0427 -150 //// 058018 018 /// /// 05
034730 2943N 08308W 4099 07438 0427 -150 //// 058018 018 /// /// 05
034800 2942N 08306W 4099 07436 0426 -150 //// 059019 019 /// /// 05
034830 2942N 08303W 4101 07433 0426 -150 //// 059020 020 /// /// 05
034900 2941N 08301W 4095 07444 0426 -153 //// 058020 020 /// /// 05
034930 2940N 08258W 4102 07430 0425 -150 //// 058020 020 /// /// 05
035000 2940N 08256W 4095 07442 0426 -150 //// 058020 020 /// /// 05
035030 2939N 08253W 4101 07431 0425 -150 //// 059020 020 /// /// 05
035100 2938N 08251W 4098 07436 0425 -150 //// 058019 019 /// /// 05
035130 2937N 08248W 4098 07438 0424 -150 //// 055019 019 /// /// 05
035200 2937N 08245W 4101 07431 0424 -150 //// 053020 020 /// /// 05
035230 2936N 08243W 4095 07441 0425 -153 //// 050020 020 /// /// 05
035300 2935N 08240W 4100 07433 0424 -150 //// 050020 020 /// /// 05
035330 2934N 08238W 4101 07434 0425 -150 //// 049020 021 /// /// 05
035400 2934N 08235W 4097 07439 0424 -150 //// 048021 021 /// /// 05
035430 2933N 08233W 4101 07429 0422 -150 //// 049021 021 /// /// 05
035500 2932N 08230W 4098 07435 0423 -150 //// 048019 020 /// /// 05
$$
;

nearing Ocala, FL

[artist]

we must all remember too that only the US models even depicted this, none of the globals did before it formed.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180405
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 10 20110718
035530 2931N 08228W 4099 07431 0422 -149 //// 046018 018 /// /// 05
035600 2931N 08225W 4099 07431 0422 -148 //// 042018 018 /// /// 05
035630 2930N 08222W 4097 07436 0422 -145 //// 039018 018 /// /// 05
035700 2929N 08220W 4101 07429 0421 -145 //// 038018 018 /// /// 05
035730 2928N 08217W 4098 07434 0422 -146 //// 040018 019 /// /// 05
035800 2928N 08215W 4098 07433 0420 -148 //// 039018 019 /// /// 05
035830 2927N 08212W 4102 07425 0421 -150 //// 040018 018 /// /// 05
035900 2926N 08209W 4095 07437 0421 -150 //// 041019 020 /// /// 05
035930 2925N 08207W 4103 07422 0419 -150 //// 040021 021 /// /// 05
040000 2925N 08204W 4095 07435 0418 -154 //// 038022 022 /// /// 05
040030 2924N 08202W 4101 07423 0417 -156 //// 043020 021 /// /// 05
040100 2923N 08159W 4100 07428 0419 -156 //// 045021 022 /// /// 05
040130 2922N 08156W 4095 07435 0418 -155 //// 042023 023 /// /// 05
040200 2922N 08154W 4101 07424 0417 -155 //// 042023 024 /// /// 05
040230 2921N 08151W 4101 07423 0417 -155 //// 040022 023 /// /// 05
040300 2920N 08149W 4097 07431 0417 -157 //// 040021 021 /// /// 05
040330 2919N 08146W 4097 07430 0417 -163 //// 038016 016 /// /// 05
040400 2919N 08144W 4101 07423 0416 -158 //// 032021 023 /// /// 05
040430 2918N 08141W 4095 07435 0416 -158 //// 031021 022 /// /// 05
040500 2917N 08138W 4101 07422 0414 -160 //// 034019 019 /// /// 05
$$
;

over Deland, FL

[Bocadude85]

If Bret doesnt stop his southward march soon he will be crossing Grand Bahama Island

[stormhunter7]

darn... they flew right over a hour ago.. should of looked up and taken a pic! haha 308 is now south of Daytona Beach, lowering down in alt. prolly to 10kft. Flew from KECP to DAB in last hour!

[NDG]

That southern squall is hitting Aboco Island now, check out the winds now reported by a personal wx station. Wind gusts of 48 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IABACOEL1&month=7&day=18&year=2011

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180425
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 12 20110718
041530 2901N 08043W 4102 07407 0402 -168 //// 011008 009 /// /// 05
041600 2900N 08041W 4099 07414 0403 -168 //// 005008 008 /// /// 05
041630 2859N 08038W 4097 07416 0402 -170 //// 011008 009 /// /// 05
041700 2858N 08035W 4101 07409 0402 -169 //// 007009 010 /// /// 05
041730 2857N 08033W 4097 07414 0401 -170 //// 010010 011 002 002 05
041800 2857N 08030W 4103 07404 0401 -167 //// 008010 011 003 001 01
041830 2856N 08027W 4099 07413 0402 -167 //// 011010 010 002 000 01
041900 2855N 08025W 4097 07414 0401 -167 //// 006010 010 004 000 01
041930 2854N 08022W 4101 07409 0401 -165 //// 004010 010 008 000 01
042000 2853N 08020W 4098 07412 0401 -167 //// 017011 011 015 000 01
042030 2853N 08017W 4102 07405 0402 -167 //// 026011 011 018 000 01
042100 2852N 08014W 4170 07290 0402 -164 //// 023009 010 019 001 01
042130 2851N 08012W 4301 07060 0391 -157 //// 042010 011 023 000 01
042200 2850N 08009W 4426 06840 0379 -142 //// 048010 010 025 000 01
042230 2849N 08007W 4567 06625 0390 -123 //// 058009 009 026 000 01
042300 2849N 08004W 4675 06442 0378 -111 //// 038008 009 026 001 01
042330 2848N 08002W 4778 06275 0369 -100 //// 015010 012 026 001 01
042400 2847N 07959W 4908 06070 0361 -083 //// 014012 012 027 001 01
042430 2846N 07957W 5088 05792 0348 -060 //// 035012 013 027 001 01
042500 2846N 07955W 5270 05515 0331 -038 //// 028012 014 028 001 01
$$
;

east of Merritt Island, FL in the Atlantic

[Bocadude85]

That southern squall is hitting Aboco Island now, check out the winds now reported by a personal wx station. Wind gusts of 48 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IABACOEL1&month=7&day=18&year=2011

As close as Bret is to the Northern Bahamas I do not understand why the Bahamian government has not issued a tropical storm warning.

[artist]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[artist]

from Derek -

Bret officially named

7/18/2011 2:34 AM EDT Tags: dortt

Tropical Depression 2 has been officially upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret. Winds are estimated at 40 mph. Bret remains nearly stationary, about 150 miles east of Florida. It is still expected to begin moving away from Florida after a day or two, with no significant impacts to Florida. However, the forecast confidence is a bit lower than normal due to the weak steering currents.

[NDG]

That southern squall is hitting Aboco Island now, check out the winds now reported by a personal wx station. Wind gusts of 48 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IABACOEL1&month=7&day=18&year=2011

As close as Bret is to the Northern Bahamas I do not understand why the Bahamian government has not issued a tropical storm warning.

Surprised myself too, if that personal wx station is correct they are experiencing tropical storm force winds, and looking at some of the buoys around that island shown on wundermap it supports that they are experiencing winds that strong with the squally wx of the southern quadrant.

[HurricaneBrain]

lets all remember IKE as it raced SW and missed the weakness....the EURO sniffed it out and prevailed as all the other models had it going up the spine of FL....

Bret gets too far south and it will miss the weakness....I might have to stay up for the EURO tonight with Ivan...

I'll be up for the Euro tonight!

[sponger]

Looks to be tightening up a bit.

[artist]

[NDG]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=jma&VAR=pslv&HH=48&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

What are you pointing out here?

Hour 216-240 low pressure in the SE GOM is actually from the strong tropical wave that is coming out of Africa tonight that the 12z euro is forecasting to develope once it reaches the FL straights into the SE GOM.

[TexasF6]

Was that the euro showing Bret rounding Florida into the GOM??? Or could it be my lack of an evening coffee causing hallucinations?!!! But as for that NE direction? Lee Corso would say, 'not so fast my friend!!!' Texas needs Bret!!!

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 180438
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 13 20110718
042530 2845N 07952W 5468 05224 0315 -028 //// 009007 008 027 001 01
042600 2844N 07950W 5671 04931 //// -011 //// 004008 009 027 000 01
042630 2843N 07948W 5813 04726 //// -001 //// 360007 007 029 001 01
042700 2843N 07945W 5952 04539 //// +010 //// 001009 010 028 002 01
042730 2842N 07943W 6134 04276 //// +022 //// 341011 011 025 000 01
042800 2841N 07941W 6278 04086 //// +035 //// 336011 011 024 001 01
042830 2841N 07939W 6444 03872 //// +044 //// 339009 011 024 001 01
042900 2840N 07937W 6616 03656 //// +055 //// 003006 009 024 000 01
042930 2840N 07935W 6774 03460 //// +063 //// 032004 005 024 001 05
043000 2839N 07933W 6925 03275 //// +076 //// 012005 005 024 000 01
043030 2838N 07932W 7079 03093 //// +081 //// 360006 007 024 000 01
043100 2838N 07930W 7247 02893 //// +094 //// 024006 006 024 001 01
043130 2837N 07928W 7410 02707 //// +099 //// 023008 009 026 002 01
043200 2837N 07926W 7542 02552 //// +109 //// 022011 013 026 001 01
043230 2836N 07925W 7621 02467 //// +118 //// 041011 012 025 000 01
043300 2836N 07923W 7719 02361 //// +119 //// 040011 012 022 001 01
043330 2835N 07921W 7851 02233 //// +123 //// 049011 012 022 001 01
043400 2835N 07920W 7954 02123 //// +123 //// 047014 014 022 001 01
043430 2834N 07918W 8052 02017 //// +125 //// 050014 015 022 000 01
043500 2834N 07916W 8187 01883 //// +135 //// 054015 015 022 000 01
$$
;

[artist]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=jma&VAR=pslv&HH=48&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

What are you pointing out here?

Hour 216-240 low pressure in the SE GOM is actually from the strong tropical wave that is coming out of Africa tonight that the 12z euro is forecasting to develope once it reaches the FL straights into the SE GOM.

it is just a link I have I was sharing.

[South Texas Storms]

Was that the euro showing Bret rounding Florida into the GOM??? Or could it be my lack of an evening coffee causing hallucinations?!!! But as for that NE direction? Lee Corso would say, 'not so fast my friend!!!' Texas needs Bret!!!

Hahahahaha I like your thinking TexasF6!

[artist]

Was that the euro showing Bret rounding Florida into the GOM??? Or could it be my lack of an evening coffee causing hallucinations?!!! But as for that NE direction? Lee Corso would say, 'not so fast my friend!!!' Texas needs Bret!!!

I think that was showing something in the GOM on the 27th, which makes it suspect until closer to that date.