ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#421 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:37 pm

GCANE wrote:Big MCS firing over SW FL.

More than likely this will create an anti-cyclone to the SW of the LLC.

If so, and TD02 tracks into it, could spell some big trouble.


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GCANE, could you be a little more specific of what you're saying is big trouble? Possibly a run at cane status?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#422 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:37 pm

Image


000
URNT15 KNHC 172132
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 35 20110717
212230 2656N 07759W 9913 00201 0141 +235 +233 193021 023 024 002 00
212300 2656N 07757W 9922 00193 0142 +234 +231 189024 025 024 006 00
212330 2656N 07755W 9920 00193 0142 +231 +229 196025 028 024 008 00
212400 2656N 07753W 9919 00195 0143 +230 +228 208021 022 024 011 00
212430 2657N 07752W 9922 00192 0144 +230 +226 207021 022 022 010 00
212500 2657N 07750W 9922 00193 0144 +228 +224 204021 024 030 005 00
212530 2657N 07748W 9921 00194 0147 +198 //// 199028 029 035 011 01
212600 2657N 07746W 9926 00192 0147 +224 +216 196024 025 029 008 03
212630 2657N 07745W 9885 00227 0148 +204 //// 198019 020 043 014 05
212700 2656N 07743W 9932 00186 0148 +197 //// 186019 020 052 023 05
212730 2656N 07742W 9867 00243 0149 +196 //// 190020 021 046 026 01
212800 2655N 07740W 9900 00215 0149 +199 +194 185020 021 041 022 03
212830 2655N 07739W 9925 00193 0148 +208 +191 179020 021 036 016 00
212900 2655N 07737W 9919 00198 0147 +229 +189 168020 021 026 013 03
212930 2655N 07736W 9923 00195 0146 +234 +189 162022 023 027 020 03
213000 2655N 07734W 9917 00200 0147 +231 +192 165021 021 023 007 03
213030 2655N 07732W 9920 00198 0147 +230 +195 168019 019 025 006 00
213100 2654N 07731W 9921 00196 0147 +232 +197 171019 020 024 007 00
213130 2654N 07729W 9921 00197 0147 +233 +199 166016 016 025 006 00
213200 2653N 07728W 9921 00197 0148 +233 +200 168018 019 027 004 03
$$
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#423 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:38 pm

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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#424 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:41 pm

:uarrow: Yeah the global models are not initializing this system well at all right now. Hopefully the 0z models tonight will have today's RECON data in them. Does anyone know if they will?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#425 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#426 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:47 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 172142
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 36 20110717
213230 2653N 07727W 9921 00199 0148 +234 +201 165018 018 026 005 00
213300 2653N 07725W 9921 00197 0148 +234 +203 165017 018 023 004 00
213330 2652N 07723W 9920 00199 0148 +232 +206 162016 017 022 002 00
213400 2652N 07722W 9915 00202 0148 +232 +209 159018 020 /// /// 03
213430 2653N 07722W 9925 00195 0149 +230 +213 147019 019 /// /// 03
213500 2654N 07723W 9922 00198 0148 +231 +217 142017 018 023 002 03
213530 2655N 07725W 9920 00198 0148 +232 +219 145018 018 027 002 00
213600 2656N 07726W 9920 00198 0148 +231 +221 148018 019 027 003 00
213630 2657N 07727W 9921 00198 0147 +230 +221 145019 020 027 004 00
213700 2659N 07729W 9871 00242 0148 +225 +218 150021 022 027 006 03
213730 2700N 07730W 9879 00232 0146 +229 +215 153023 025 032 006 00
213800 2702N 07730W 9877 00234 0145 +229 +212 152025 026 030 010 03
213830 2703N 07731W 9878 00233 0147 +219 +210 153024 025 033 012 03
213900 2704N 07733W 9879 00231 0148 +200 //// 156027 028 035 013 01
213930 2705N 07734W 9876 00235 0148 +195 //// 161027 028 035 013 05
214000 2706N 07736W 9878 00231 0145 +205 +198 161029 030 039 006 00
214030 2707N 07737W 9874 00233 0141 +224 +194 161031 031 031 004 00
214100 2708N 07739W 9882 00223 0139 +226 +192 159033 036 035 006 00
214130 2709N 07740W 9873 00235 0142 +226 +193 173030 033 030 007 00
214200 2710N 07742W 9878 00228 0139 +229 +196 177030 032 031 003 03
$$
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#427 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:47 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#428 Postby TYNI » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:48 pm

Well, if you look at this, they have identified as a TS already...

Image

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#429 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:49 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 172108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011
A. 17/20:54:00Z
B. 27 deg 30 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. NA
D. 45 kt
E. 041 deg 25 nm
F. 060 deg 43 kt
G. 041 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 18 C / 178 m
J. 24 C / 178 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 20:45:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
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#430 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:49 pm

WxEnthus if you want me to take over posting obs I can. Can't do the images though. And thanks
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#431 Postby fci » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:50 pm

That's true. The graphic does show a "S".
But honestly, a TD at 35 or a TS at 40 really does not make such a difference at this point.
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#432 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:53 pm

That's because the next point is right next to where it's located now
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Re: ATL: TWO - Recon

#433 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:56 pm

Sure, you grab the obs! :D

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#434 Postby Hylian Auree » Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:59 pm

Despite weak convection near the center, I think 44 kt flight-level winds are enough to support at least a 35 kt tropical storm. I agree that the NHC messed up with this one, but hopefully we'll see an upgrade asap.
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#435 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:00 pm

Well thank god it seems to be that it will not affect the east coast.
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#436 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:01 pm

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 172152
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 37 20110717
214230 2711N 07743W 9848 00252 0137 +235 +200 180028 029 033 003 03
214300 2713N 07744W 9876 00227 0135 +236 +204 177031 032 035 002 03
214330 2714N 07745W 9839 00259 0137 +233 +208 188029 032 031 001 00
214400 2715N 07746W 9853 00247 0136 +235 +211 206021 024 022 002 03
214430 2716N 07748W 9854 00244 0133 +240 +214 218021 023 022 002 00
214500 2717N 07749W 9881 00219 0130 +249 +217 223021 023 021 003 00
214530 2718N 07750W 9876 00222 0129 +243 +220 227023 025 023 001 03
214600 2719N 07752W 9877 00219 0127 +237 +222 220025 025 024 001 03
214630 2720N 07753W 9877 00217 0125 +235 +224 215026 027 024 002 00
214700 2721N 07754W 9880 00213 0123 +233 +225 224026 027 027 001 00
214730 2722N 07755W 9879 00211 0121 +229 +225 236025 026 025 002 00
214800 2723N 07756W 9878 00210 0117 +226 +225 242026 027 027 000 03
214830 2724N 07757W 9874 00209 0112 +227 +224 242028 028 027 001 00
214900 2725N 07758W 9876 00201 0105 +234 +224 255027 027 027 001 03
214930 2727N 07759W 9878 00193 0098 +237 +224 264024 025 027 002 00
215000 2728N 07800W 9880 00187 0093 +239 +224 273016 020 022 001 03
215030 2729N 07800W 9878 00186 0091 +237 +225 272011 012 005 000 03
215100 2731N 07800W 9877 00185 0089 +239 +226 247006 009 007 000 00
215130 2732N 07801W 9877 00184 0089 +241 +227 120008 011 004 002 03
215200 2734N 07801W 9869 00195 0091 +237 +228 090013 018 015 003 03
$$
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Re: Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#437 Postby lester » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:02 pm

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Yeah the global models are not initializing this system well at all right now. Hopefully the 0z models tonight will have today's RECON data in them. Does anyone know if they will?


I'm pretty sure they will

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#438 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:04 pm

H-A, well see, if they didn't upgrade when they found 43kts, no reason to expect they'll upgrade with 44kts, unless the convection strengthens more...they've made themselves pretty clear about where they stand with that despite what previous recon has suggested.

It'll either take a burst of deep convection or sometyhing stupid like a 50kt FL wind to upgrade it.
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#439 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:05 pm

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 172202
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 38 20110717
215230 2734N 07803W 9880 00189 0097 +229 //// 071029 030 028 003 05
215300 2735N 07805W 9884 00195 0106 +225 //// 054023 025 029 014 05
215330 2735N 07806W 9886 00195 //// +197 //// 023035 040 049 022 05
215400 2736N 07808W 9893 00190 0116 +196 //// 030036 038 052 013 05
215430 2736N 07810W 9869 00216 0117 +214 +209 031038 041 039 002 00
215500 2736N 07811W 9877 00212 0120 +216 +203 036044 045 /// /// 03
215530 2738N 07812W 9834 00251 0123 +211 +199 039043 045 038 000 03
215600 2739N 07813W 9766 00312 0124 +216 +197 044036 041 036 002 00
215630 2740N 07814W 9793 00291 0126 +217 +195 052038 041 032 002 00
215700 2741N 07815W 9770 00314 0129 +217 +193 050040 042 032 003 03
215730 2742N 07816W 9772 00315 0131 +217 +193 050035 036 030 002 03
215800 2744N 07816W 9771 00318 0133 +219 +194 046033 034 027 002 00
215830 2745N 07817W 9772 00320 0137 +211 +196 051034 034 029 001 03
215900 2746N 07818W 9772 00320 0138 +208 +199 056034 036 028 000 00
215930 2747N 07819W 9770 00324 0140 +207 +201 060035 036 028 002 03
220000 2749N 07820W 9771 00324 0143 +205 +202 060034 035 027 001 03
220030 2750N 07821W 9772 00325 0144 +206 +203 060034 035 025 001 00
220100 2751N 07822W 9769 00329 0145 +206 +203 062035 036 026 000 00
220130 2752N 07823W 9773 00326 0146 +211 +204 065036 037 027 002 00
220200 2753N 07824W 9769 00331 0147 +210 +204 066034 035 025 003 00
$$
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#440 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:05 pm

For a moment when I saw TWO I though Tropical Weather Outlook!!! lol
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