ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172102
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 32 20110717
205230 2731N 07802W 9922 00160 0105 +235 +198 173023 025 028 004 03
205300 2730N 07803W 9920 00157 0099 +238 +202 196014 018 023 003 03
205330 2730N 07804W 9925 00147 0095 +236 +208 225008 009 019 000 03
205400 2730N 07806W 9921 00150 0093 +240 +213 321006 009 012 002 00
205430 2731N 07808W 9922 00150 0095 +240 +218 353016 019 016 004 03
205500 2730N 07809W 9918 00158 0100 +235 +222 345027 033 028 002 03
205530 2729N 07811W 9922 00161 0107 +228 +225 338035 037 033 000 03
205600 2728N 07812W 9923 00165 0112 +229 +226 332035 036 032 001 00
205630 2726N 07813W 9922 00170 0118 +228 +227 331032 033 029 001 00
205700 2725N 07814W 9921 00174 0121 +225 //// 330030 030 027 001 01
205730 2724N 07815W 9922 00174 0122 +229 +227 329029 031 026 000 03
205800 2723N 07816W 9921 00176 0124 +231 +228 333030 031 027 001 00
205830 2722N 07818W 9922 00178 0128 +230 +229 328030 030 025 003 00
205900 2721N 07819W 9921 00183 0131 +230 +230 322028 028 024 001 03
205930 2720N 07820W 9922 00183 0132 +235 +230 323026 027 024 002 03
210000 2719N 07821W 9922 00184 0134 +236 +230 319027 027 025 001 03
210030 2718N 07823W 9924 00184 0135 +238 +230 319026 027 028 001 03
210100 2717N 07824W 9921 00187 0136 +236 +231 323027 027 026 003 03
210130 2716N 07826W 9924 00187 0138 +235 +231 321026 027 025 001 03
210200 2715N 07827W 9924 00189 0139 +235 +232 322024 025 027 000 03
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

accoring to recon, the FL winds are 43kts measured, and pressure of 1009 in the last few minutes

[tailgater]

If there is evidence of TS winds, they would put out a special statement. I see no special statement so no TS at the moment

They can judge by wave height if visibilty allows right?

[WxEnthus]

Latest

[northjaxpro]

accoring to recon, the FL winds are 43kts measured, and pressure of 1009 in the last few minutes

Well, according to this latest Recon finding, this definitely supports the system being a TS.

[vbhoutex]

Visible shows TD2 convection ramping up quickly. A special statement to take it to Bret would not surprise me. If this keeps up I would guess that NHC will declare TS Bret at 8pm instead of waiting till 11pm like I thought earlier.

[Ptarmigan]

If TD2 did not develop, it probably would of went into the Gulf of Mexico and give rain that they desperately need.

[WxEnthus]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations

000
URNT15 KNHC 172112
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 33 20110717
210230 2714N 07828W 9920 00192 0140 +234 +232 323022 023 025 001 00
210300 2712N 07829W 9921 00191 0140 +234 +232 326020 021 022 002 00
210330 2711N 07829W 9921 00192 0141 +235 +232 325019 020 022 002 00
210400 2709N 07830W 9921 00193 0141 +235 +232 325018 019 022 000 00
210430 2708N 07832W 9921 00192 0142 +235 +232 325017 018 019 002 00
210500 2707N 07833W 9924 00191 0142 +235 +232 329016 017 021 000 00
210530 2706N 07834W 9922 00192 0143 +235 +231 331018 019 019 002 00
210600 2705N 07835W 9922 00192 0143 +235 +231 332020 020 020 002 00
210630 2704N 07836W 9924 00192 0144 +235 +231 334020 021 022 001 00
210700 2702N 07838W 9916 00199 0144 +236 +231 338020 021 020 003 00
210730 2701N 07839W 9919 00197 0144 +240 +231 335019 020 018 004 00
210800 2700N 07840W 9920 00197 0145 +240 +231 337020 020 017 003 00
210830 2659N 07841W 9922 00195 0145 +242 +232 337019 020 017 003 00
210900 2658N 07842W 9923 00196 0146 +242 +233 337019 020 017 002 00
210930 2657N 07844W 9920 00199 0147 +243 +234 340018 018 015 002 03
211000 2655N 07844W 9920 00199 0147 +245 +236 330018 018 /// /// 03
211030 2654N 07843W 9913 00204 0146 +245 +238 328016 017 014 004 03
211100 2654N 07841W 9924 00193 0145 +245 +239 327017 018 018 004 00
211130 2654N 07839W 9918 00199 0145 +245 +239 325017 018 021 002 00
211200 2654N 07837W 9926 00192 0145 +245 +238 322017 018 021 002 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Ummm I'm not saying the NHC doesn't know what they are doing, but they HAVE been behind the curve with this system, you do know they had this at 40% just 3hrs before it formed right?

Anyway I just felt their reasoning was pretty poor, esp given there is BOTH FL and SMRF winds that support an upgrade, not sure what more then really want to be honest....I've seen MANY systems with less evidence from recon get upgraded!

Those 55-60kts are nonsense by the way, they are Rain-contimated in all likelhood.

PS, they won't upgraded with 43kts, thats not enough because of the convection and their belief that the winds aren't mixing down...probably need 50kts knowing the NHC's frame of mind tonight
Thats despite the surface estimates suggesting otherwise as well.

[KatDaddy]

Decent convection firing near the center. I am still thinking this will be Bret soon.

[WxEnthus]

[caneman]

T.S. seems reasonable to me based on the current info.

[SouthDadeFish]

Those high SFMR readings were probably faulty due to the shallow waters/flying over land.

[WxEnthus]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172122
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 34 20110717
211230 2654N 07835W 9923 00194 0144 +245 +238 318017 018 020 003 00
211300 2654N 07834W 9923 00194 0144 +245 +237 315018 019 020 004 00
211330 2654N 07832W 9921 00195 0144 +245 +236 317019 019 023 002 00
211400 2654N 07830W 9921 00195 0144 +245 +236 315018 018 023 002 00
211430 2654N 07828W 9923 00193 0144 +245 +235 311019 019 023 002 00
211500 2654N 07826W 9920 00195 0144 +245 +235 310019 019 023 000 00
211530 2654N 07824W 9923 00192 0143 +245 +235 312019 019 023 002 00
211600 2654N 07823W 9923 00193 0144 +245 +235 309018 019 022 002 00
211630 2654N 07821W 9921 00196 0144 +245 +235 308018 018 022 001 03
211700 2654N 07819W 9921 00194 0144 +245 +235 304018 019 021 003 00
211730 2654N 07817W 9925 00190 0143 +245 +234 303019 019 024 001 03
211800 2654N 07815W 9920 00195 0143 +245 +234 298019 019 023 001 00
211830 2654N 07813W 9920 00195 0143 +245 +234 297017 018 021 001 00
211900 2654N 07811W 9922 00193 0143 +245 +234 295017 017 021 001 00
211930 2654N 07810W 9924 00191 0143 +245 +234 293017 018 021 001 00
212000 2655N 07808W 9920 00194 0142 +245 +233 290016 017 021 002 03
212030 2655N 07806W 9923 00192 0142 +245 +233 287016 017 019 002 00
212100 2655N 07804W 9922 00193 0142 +246 +233 281016 016 019 001 00
212130 2655N 07802W 9921 00194 0143 +248 +233 275014 016 014 002 00
212200 2655N 07800W 9927 00188 0143 +237 +233 189017 022 017 005 00
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

Nothing really to move this anywhere for a little while.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like we have Bret

000
URNT12 KNHC 172108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011
A. 17/20:54:00Z
B. 27 deg 30 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. NA
D. 45 kt
E. 041 deg 25 nm
F. 060 deg 43 kt
G. 041 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 18 C / 178 m
J. 24 C / 178 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 20:45:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

[KWT]

Those high SFMR readings were probably faulty due to the shallow waters/flying over land.

Yep thats true, plus looks like there was some very heavy rain which tends to skew the estimates up as well somewhat. Still I see no reason to not believe those estimates of 35kts given the FL winds also present with it.

[GCANE]

Big MCS firing over SW FL.

More than likely this will create an anti-cyclone to the SW of the LLC.

If so, and TD02 tracks into it, could spell some big trouble.

[SunnyThoughts]

Not looking too bad for sure. I think we will probably be welcoming our 2nd named system of 2011 in a very short while. Will be interesting to see how strong he can become should the system sit there in place for a day or two. As far as the 2011 season goes, I guess you can say we are dipping our toe in the water.

[KWT]

Looks like we have Bret
D. 45 kt

Well lets see whether the NHC are just going to ignore this round of data like they did with the last...hmmm yet more evidence to suggest we have Bret...lets see what the NHC does next advisory.

Small convection firing, probably in response to the worst of Dmin passing, wouldn't behocked to see a fair burst develop in the next 3-6hrs.