ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#341 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:02 pm

TD 2

invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al022011.ren 17-Jul-2011 19:55 1.3K

They still could upgrade to Bret though
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#342 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:02 pm

Depression or weak TS welcome in the gulf. freak is right we do need the rain as long as it doesn't ramp up too much.
Tim
:eek:
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#343 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:04 pm

Well they decided to upgrade, now we just see whether they willgo with Bret...I'd be amazed if it wasn't Bret based on the winds found!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#344 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:06 pm

Probably a TS at 5:00 pm based on recorded winds. Maybe a special statement to upgrade to TD2 in a few minutes. Nothing showing yet on NHC home page.
Tim
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#345 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:07 pm

What will force it to move NE? I haven't heard of any fronts moving through my neck of the state
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#346 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:09 pm

CronkPSU wrote:What will force it to move NE? I haven't heard of any fronts moving through my neck of the state


IMO, cone will have it meander for a day or so then move NE.
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#347 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:10 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
KWT wrote:Thanks Brunota, LLC maybe a touch elongated to one side but its pretty strong, you don't get west wuinds of that strength without a strong LLC being present.

Its probably Bret right now fwiw...


KWT. it is right on the threshold of Tropical Storm status. With it being so close the the Northwestern Bahamas, NHC just may bump it to TS status and initiate advisories. We will know shortly.


totally agree...its close enough and close enough to the coast....regardless if it goes north and then NE it could brush the Carolinas.....FWIW I am not sold on a NE track...need some model constistancy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#348 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:11 pm

CronkPSU wrote:What will force it to move NE? I haven't heard of any fronts moving through my neck of the state


I believ e a weakness develops between the strong high over the states and Bermuda and the system scoots of to the NNE/NE...but we will see!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#349 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:13 pm

Ivanhater wrote:TD 2

invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al022011.ren 17-Jul-2011 19:55 1.3K

They still could upgrade to Bret though


They still have not updated the new best track with the new classification,but that will come shortly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Recon

#350 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:14 pm

I can post captures of GE.
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#351 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:17 pm

WxEnthus that would be great. I can't get google earth to work for some reason.

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 172012
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 27 20110717
200230 2748N 07830W 9908 00209 0149 +225 +207 045022 023 014 000 00
200300 2749N 07831W 9905 00212 0150 +225 +208 047021 021 012 002 00
200330 2750N 07833W 9906 00212 0151 +225 +208 047022 023 015 001 00
200400 2751N 07834W 9905 00215 0153 +225 +209 045023 023 017 002 00
200430 2752N 07835W 9908 00214 0154 +225 +210 043023 024 020 000 00
200500 2753N 07836W 9905 00218 0155 +225 +211 042024 024 019 001 00
200530 2755N 07837W 9902 00221 0156 +227 +211 041024 024 017 001 03
200600 2756N 07838W 9901 00222 0157 +227 +211 041021 022 /// /// 03
200630 2756N 07838W 9901 00222 0156 +228 +212 033022 024 /// /// 03
200700 2755N 07835W 9906 00217 0155 +226 +213 032021 022 017 000 00
200730 2754N 07834W 9906 00215 0153 +225 +214 035020 020 018 001 00
200800 2753N 07833W 9907 00213 0152 +225 +215 030020 020 018 001 00
200830 2751N 07832W 9905 00214 0151 +226 +216 030019 020 017 002 00
200900 2750N 07830W 9905 00213 0150 +225 +216 031017 018 015 001 00
200930 2749N 07829W 9905 00211 0148 +225 +216 033018 018 012 001 00
201000 2748N 07828W 9908 00208 0147 +225 +216 030018 019 014 001 00
201030 2747N 07827W 9907 00207 0145 +225 +215 032020 021 013 001 00
201100 2746N 07825W 9908 00204 0143 +224 +214 028021 021 018 000 00
201130 2745N 07824W 9908 00203 0142 +221 +214 022021 022 018 000 00
201200 2743N 07823W 9908 00202 0139 +220 +213 026022 022 017 001 00
$$
;
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#352 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:18 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
TD2
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#353 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:20 pm



000

URNT11 KNHC 171907

97779 19004 10289 77700 01500 10020 23218 /0017
41020
RMK AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 09
SWS = 15 KTS
;



000

URNT11 KNHC 171941

97779 19394 10273 78500 01900 30019 23218 /0015
43220
RMK AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 10
SWS = 19 KTS
;



000

URNT11 KNHC 171950

97779 19484 10273 78010 01900 23017 25239 /0014
42325
RMK AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 11
;


000
URNT11 KNHC 172012
97779 20064 10279 78610 01900 03022 23218 /0015
40420
RMK AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 13
SWS = 17 KTS
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#354 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:20 pm

Can someone post recon? Have to go for awhile.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Recon

#355 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:21 pm

Crossed wind shift again.

Image
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#356 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:22 pm

I'd be very shocked if they don't go with Bret, esp given the 40-45kts FL winds backed up with 33-40kts SMFR estimates...nothing to justify anything less than 35kts...
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#357 Postby artist » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:23 pm

WxEnthus - something just came up and I have to go for awhile. Can you post the obs as well? I'll be back in about 30 minutes.
just hit refresh to find the HDOB # . The last posted was 27.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
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#358 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:26 pm

It should be TS Bret. even though convection as weakened the potential is still high for further strengthening.
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#359 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:26 pm

I agree, based on data, it should be a 40 kt tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Recon

#360 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Jul 17, 2011 3:27 pm

Sure, no problem.

Latest flight track -- took a sharp u-turn, heading southeast again.

Image
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