ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Best Track

Up to 30kts.

AL, 98, 2011071718, , BEST, 0, 279N, 782W, 30, 1013, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[KWT]

Question is with TD force winds and a pressure of only 1015mb found so far, will they upgrage it to a TD?

Yep, as long as recon confirms a closed low then the NHC would find it very hard not to upgrade given the Vis presentation right now.

Their main fear probably is the convection going poof, and I'm sure if this was in the E.Atlantic they would not bother until it had held for a longer period of time, but being where it is and with recon in there, going to be hard for NHC not to upgrade if the LLC is found.

[Recurve]

Sorry to break in, can't find a GE link anywhere -- can someone post for this mission? TIA.

Nevermind, found it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic.kmz

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171852
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 19 20110717
184230 2810N 07747W 9885 00239 0161 +213 +190 109024 025 028 001 00
184300 2810N 07746W 9885 00239 0161 +213 +189 108023 025 028 001 00
184330 2810N 07744W 9885 00239 0161 +210 +188 110023 023 029 003 00
184400 2811N 07743W 9887 00238 0162 +212 +187 110023 024 029 003 00
184430 2811N 07741W 9882 00242 0162 +211 +186 112023 023 027 004 00
184500 2811N 07740W 9885 00238 0162 +210 +185 116022 022 029 002 00
184530 2811N 07738W 9885 00239 0162 +209 +183 116023 023 029 003 00
184600 2812N 07737W 9883 00241 0162 +211 +181 117022 023 029 005 00
184630 2812N 07735W 9932 00202 0164 +215 +179 117023 024 030 007 03
184700 2812N 07734W 0005 00136 0163 +216 +179 114025 026 /// /// 03
184730 2814N 07734W 9981 00158 0163 +218 +180 109027 027 /// /// 03
184800 2815N 07735W 9989 00149 0163 +217 +182 105030 032 033 003 00
184830 2817N 07736W 0001 00138 0162 +219 +183 107027 028 029 004 03
184900 2818N 07736W 9986 00153 0163 +223 +183 108026 026 027 002 00
184930 2820N 07737W 9972 00164 0162 +227 +184 109025 026 023 004 00
185000 2822N 07737W 9971 00165 0163 +229 +185 105025 026 024 000 00
185030 2823N 07737W 9969 00169 0163 +230 +187 106024 025 024 001 00
185100 2825N 07737W 9970 00168 0164 +230 +190 105025 025 024 000 00
185130 2826N 07738W 9954 00182 0164 +230 +193 104023 024 025 001 00
185200 2828N 07738W 9956 00181 0165 +230 +196 104023 024 026 001 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Sorry to break in, can't find a GE link anywhere -- can someone post for this mission? TIA.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/home/

The GE link should be there.

[wxman57]

The plane passed from west to east to the north of the circulation center and is moving off to the NE. Will have to wait for the next pass to get some westerly winds.

[Blown Away]

Looks like whatever becomes of 98L it will stay offshore of Florida.

[KWT]

The plane passed from west to east to the north of the circulation center and is moving off to the NE. Will have to wait for the next pass to get some westerly winds.

As I think was expected, any LLC looks to be on the SW part of the MLC's convection, not all that well stacked probably but still enough at the moment to suggest its probably a 30kt TD.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR suggests 35 kt winds so it has TS conditions, but it is nowhere near organized enough yet IMO.

[ROCK]

I will bite with those RECON premliminary numbers....TS Bret coming soon. Way to close to the coast...model support jacked until at least the EURO comes out (which I think its about too) even then I dont know if it will see it.....NHC will have to upgrade IMO.....

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171903
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 20 20110717
185230 2830N 07738W 9955 00181 0165 +229 +198 104023 023 025 004 00
185300 2831N 07738W 9956 00181 0165 +230 +199 100023 024 022 001 00
185330 2833N 07739W 9956 00182 0166 +230 +200 096022 023 020 001 00
185400 2834N 07739W 9955 00182 0166 +230 +200 094022 023 020 001 00
185430 2836N 07739W 9958 00181 0166 +230 +201 094021 021 019 001 00
185500 2837N 07739W 9954 00185 0168 +230 +202 099020 020 019 000 00
185530 2839N 07740W 9956 00183 0168 +230 +203 099020 021 019 001 00
185600 2841N 07740W 9957 00183 0168 +230 +203 100021 021 019 001 00
185630 2842N 07740W 9958 00182 0168 +230 +204 102021 022 019 001 00
185700 2844N 07740W 9956 00186 0169 +230 +205 105022 022 016 002 00
185730 2845N 07740W 9955 00186 0170 +230 +206 101021 023 018 001 00
185800 2847N 07741W 9957 00183 0169 +229 +207 097019 019 019 001 00
185830 2848N 07741W 9955 00186 0169 +233 +207 096021 022 019 001 00
185900 2850N 07741W 9957 00186 0170 +232 +206 094021 023 021 001 00
185930 2852N 07741W 9955 00186 0170 +229 +206 092022 023 017 001 00
190000 2853N 07742W 9955 00186 0169 +231 +206 091022 023 020 000 00
190030 2855N 07742W 9955 00186 0170 +230 +207 096019 020 017 001 00
190100 2856N 07742W 9957 00183 0169 +232 +207 090019 020 /// /// 03
190130 2856N 07744W 9957 00183 0170 +232 +209 082017 019 015 001 03
190200 2854N 07745W 9961 00182 0170 +232 +211 087019 020 019 001 00
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

I will bite with those RECON premliminary numbers....TS Bret coming soon. Way to close to the coast...model support jacked until at least the EURO comes out (which I think its about too) even then I dont know if it will see it.....NHC will have to upgrade IMO.....

If they dont find west winds, this is not a tropical depression, but if they do find west winds there will be a depression so we have to wait and see if they find west winds

[KWT]

SFMR suggests 35 kt winds so it has TS conditions, but it is nowhere near organized enough yet IMO.

Hmm I'm not sure, any LLC hasn't been sampled yet by recon so we will have to wait for the next pass as Wxman57 said.

I suspect if they do upgrade, they'll go with 30kt TD based on FL winds being lower then the SMFR.

[ROCK]

a LLC is at the surface so light west winds would do the trick. We are seeing estimated surface winds at TS strength. Thinking like a NHC forecaster and with presentation like we are seeing IMO they will have no choice. Even if it gets shunted N and NE the Carolinas could be in the way.....

[HURAKAN]

center is just north of Grand Bahama, Freeport reporting west winds, 15 mph

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171914
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 21 20110717
190230 2853N 07746W 9955 00186 0169 +234 +212 085018 020 018 001 00
190300 2852N 07747W 9955 00185 0169 +230 +212 083019 019 019 000 00
190330 2850N 07747W 9954 00187 0169 +231 +213 082019 020 020 000 00
190400 2849N 07748W 9956 00183 0168 +235 +213 085018 018 019 000 00
190430 2847N 07749W 9957 00183 0168 +235 +213 088018 019 020 000 00
190500 2846N 07750W 9957 00182 0168 +231 +213 084017 018 020 002 00
190530 2844N 07751W 9954 00186 0168 +230 +213 085019 020 020 001 00
190600 2843N 07752W 9959 00181 0167 +233 +212 091017 017 018 000 00
190630 2842N 07753W 9954 00185 0166 +235 +211 087018 018 019 000 00
190700 2840N 07754W 9957 00182 0166 +235 +211 085019 020 020 000 00
190730 2839N 07754W 9956 00182 0166 +234 +211 083019 019 020 000 00
190800 2837N 07755W 9958 00181 0166 +233 +211 080019 020 021 000 00
190830 2836N 07756W 9955 00182 0165 +231 +212 075020 023 022 003 00
190900 2834N 07757W 9951 00185 0164 +230 +212 067020 021 025 002 00
190930 2833N 07758W 9958 00179 0164 +232 +210 073019 020 023 002 00
191000 2831N 07759W 9953 00183 0164 +230 +208 086019 019 020 001 00
191030 2830N 07800W 9955 00181 0163 +230 +208 085020 020 020 000 00
191100 2829N 07801W 9959 00176 0162 +230 +208 083020 020 021 000 00
191130 2827N 07801W 9956 00179 0162 +230 +209 083021 021 021 000 00
191200 2826N 07802W 9955 00179 0161 +230 +210 082020 020 021 002 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

there is your west wind.... and not to shabby either....

[HURAKAN]

Freeport, Bahamas

Code: Select all

Time
EDT (UTC)   Temperature
F (C)   Dew Point
F (C)   Pressure
Inches (hPa)   Wind
MPH   Weather
Latest   3 PM (19) Jul 17   89 (32)   77 (25)   30 (1015)   W 15   
2 PM (18) Jul 17   89 (32)   75 (24)   30.01 (1016)   W 12   
1 PM (17) Jul 17   87 (31)   77 (25)   30.02 (1016)   NW 13   
Noon (16) Jul 17   86 (30)   77 (25)   30.02 (1016)   WNW 10   
11 AM (15) Jul 17   86 (30)   77 (25)   30.01 (1016)   W 8   
10 AM (14) Jul 17   86 (30)   78 (26)      WSW 9   
9 AM (13)   No Data            
8 AM (12) Jul 17   82 (28)   77 (25)   29.99 (1015)   SW 7   
7 AM (11) Jul 17   84 (29)   77 (25)   29.98 (1015)   WSW 7   

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYGF.html

[CrazyC83]

Based on those surface obs, I'd get advisories going at 5 on TS Bret. Holding back is difficult right now since Tropical Storm Warnings would be needed right away.

[Ivanhater]