ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Ugh - well, it is that time of year, though this is the NHC's constant concern, even during my days with them many years ago - that a "short fuse" system will form close to the coast, and not allow the public enough time to prepare...

We'll see what happens...

Frank

[jinftl]

The trend is up from 20% to 30% to 40%, but still there is a 60% chance of no development in the next 48 hours as of the 2pm Outlook.

I expect the recon findings will either ramp up...or ramp down...these %s.

40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[AdamFirst]

If recon finds anything significant they should release a special outlook/advisory. NHC, for now, going the conservative route as they tend to do.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is why it's 40%:

Still pretty ragged on IR. Much could change later today though.

[Frank2]

Well, at least they'll determine if the impressive appearance is more due to an MLC than an LLC, for certain...

Still, it's appearance is beginning to give me a headache right here [rumbs fingers on temples]

LOL

[jinftl]

agree...they are being conservative yet somewhat bullish at the same time....over the last 12 hours the chance of development has doubled from 20% to 40% which means they are definitely seeing something that isn't waning. Once recon gets in there, we will know if what we are seeing on the satellite images translates to a closed low circulation that merits the status of t.d. or t.s. or just invest 98.

If recon finds anything significant they should release a special outlook/advisory. NHC, for now, going the conservative route as they tend to do.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171744
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 12 20110717
173230 2806N 08232W 3758 08084 0462 -205 //// 321003 005 /// /// 05
173300 2806N 08229W 3760 08081 0462 -205 //// 342003 003 /// /// 05
173330 2806N 08227W 3761 08080 0461 -205 //// 351003 004 /// /// 05
173400 2806N 08224W 3755 08090 0462 -204 //// 338003 004 /// /// 05
173430 2806N 08221W 3759 08080 0460 -201 //// 324003 004 /// /// 05
173500 2806N 08218W 3759 08081 0461 -202 //// 323004 004 /// /// 05
173530 2806N 08215W 3759 08080 0460 -202 //// 338004 004 /// /// 05
173600 2806N 08212W 3759 08080 0460 -201 //// 348004 004 /// /// 05
173630 2806N 08210W 3759 08081 0460 -200 -211 351005 006 /// /// 03
173700 2806N 08207W 3759 08079 0460 -200 -211 339005 006 /// /// 03
173730 2806N 08204W 3760 08079 0459 -200 -212 345006 007 /// /// 03
173800 2806N 08201W 3759 08079 0458 -201 -214 334006 007 /// /// 03
173830 2806N 08158W 3759 08078 0458 -203 -215 335006 007 /// /// 03
173900 2806N 08155W 3760 08076 0457 -204 -216 329006 007 /// /// 03
173930 2805N 08153W 3759 08078 0458 -205 -217 333006 006 /// /// 03
174000 2805N 08150W 3759 08078 0458 -201 -219 332006 006 /// /// 03
174030 2805N 08147W 3759 08078 0458 -200 -221 331006 007 /// /// 03
174100 2805N 08144W 3758 08079 0457 -200 -228 335006 006 /// /// 03
174130 2805N 08141W 3758 08079 0457 -200 -247 340006 006 /// /// 03
174200 2805N 08138W 3761 08074 0457 -204 -258 331003 003 /// /// 03
$$
;

[KWT]

IR is a little light-weight but to be honest its vis.presentation is pretty impressive at the moment. 40% maybe conservative but I thinkfor now its probably wise for the NHC not to up its chances too high.

my gut feeling is it does develop but waits till its going NNE/NE before really getting going...

Ps, I bet recon finds enough for an upgrade to TD status...but MLC can be very misleading as well...

[brunota2003]

I think they'll find a LLC, but the cir. is going to be pushed off to the west of the MLC. Also, I think the LLC is still broad, with no well defined center. It seems trying to form the LLC is zapping energy overall from the system.

[Dave]

Someone else take over...I've got a county fair in progress and thunderstorms coming in on it within the hour, have to switch to local weather only at this time...no choice...my job. Here's where I'm pulling 304 data from:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?

[wxman57]

There's no question at all that an LLC exists, it's clearly shown by surface obs and WINDSAT estimates. The only question as to whether or not to upgrade will be is the convection strong enough near the center. I'd like to see some consistency regarding what qualifies for upgrading to a depression vs. what should be downgraded below TD strength this year. A system like this would never be declared a remnant low if it had been a TS. I do think it meets the qualifications for upgrading to a TD. Center is tucked underneath the convection, though the convection could be a bit stronger. Of course, if the convection was stronger then it may be a TS not a TD.

[KWT]

I agree Wxman57...not sure why they only went for 40%...if I ever saw one this should be clsoer to 80%.

Recon will find a closed circ. then its just down to whether they find Td/TS winds...

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171752
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 13 20110717
174230 2805N 08136W 3759 08075 0456 -205 -265 317004 004 /// /// 03
174300 2805N 08133W 3759 08076 0457 -205 -274 314005 005 /// /// 03
174330 2805N 08130W 3758 08079 0457 -205 -285 320006 006 /// /// 03
174400 2805N 08127W 3759 08079 0458 -205 -296 324006 007 /// /// 03
174430 2805N 08124W 3759 08080 0461 -205 -306 327006 007 /// /// 03
174500 2805N 08122W 3760 08081 0462 -205 -314 320006 007 /// /// 03
174530 2805N 08119W 3761 08079 0461 -205 -322 329007 007 /// /// 03
174600 2805N 08116W 3759 08081 0462 -206 -329 321007 008 /// /// 03
174630 2805N 08113W 3758 08084 0462 -206 -333 319007 008 /// /// 03
174700 2805N 08111W 3760 08081 0462 -205 -338 315008 008 /// /// 03
174730 2805N 08108W 3809 07985 0459 -200 -336 315007 008 /// /// 03
174800 2805N 08105W 3898 07817 0452 -187 -333 316008 009 /// /// 03
174830 2804N 08102W 4000 07627 0444 -173 -340 316008 009 /// /// 03
174900 2804N 08059W 4114 07415 0431 -159 -346 320007 007 /// /// 03
174930 2804N 08057W 4240 07187 0419 -146 -345 345008 009 /// /// 03
175000 2804N 08054W 4364 06966 0402 -129 -345 004010 011 /// /// 03
175030 2804N 08051W 4493 06742 0389 -114 -344 354009 010 /// /// 03
175100 2804N 08048W 4624 06530 0381 -106 -343 002008 009 /// /// 03
175130 2804N 08046W 4741 06330 0367 -100 -341 042006 006 /// /// 03
175200 2804N 08043W 4871 06120 0355 -089 -322 037006 007 /// /// 03

If someone could do the map it'd be great, thanks!

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171803
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 14 20110717
175230 2804N 08041W 5002 05914 0344 -077 -312 038006 007 /// /// 03
175300 2804N 08038W 5129 05720 0333 -065 -317 006006 007 /// /// 03
175330 2804N 08035W 5276 05495 0321 -058 -301 014010 011 /// /// 03
175400 2804N 08033W 5418 05287 0311 -046 -297 030014 016 /// /// 03
175430 2804N 08030W 5591 05040 0213 -035 -294 012013 014 /// /// 03
175500 2804N 08028W 5741 04828 0216 -023 -282 360014 015 /// /// 03
175530 2804N 08026W 5993 04484 0212 -002 -271 355012 013 /// /// 03
175600 2803N 08023W 6167 04245 0214 +005 -256 336012 013 /// /// 03
175630 2803N 08021W 6218 04179 0214 +010 -239 331013 013 /// /// 03
175700 2803N 08019W 6230 04162 0214 +014 -224 325012 013 /// /// 03
175730 2803N 08016W 6386 03976 0223 +024 -207 322012 014 /// /// 03
175800 2803N 08014W 6603 03703 0214 +046 -193 325009 009 /// /// 03
175830 2803N 08012W 6817 03442 0206 +066 -171 340009 009 /// /// 03
175900 2803N 08010W 7014 03198 0192 +088 -144 009010 011 /// /// 03
175930 2803N 08008W 7221 02954 0181 +109 -120 002007 009 /// /// 03
180000 2803N 08006W 7452 02690 0192 +115 -100 338006 008 /// /// 03
180030 2803N 08004W 7671 02446 0193 +127 -080 348004 005 /// /// 03
180100 2803N 08002W 7893 02208 0202 +134 -057 339004 005 /// /// 03
180130 2803N 08000W 8124 01963 0199 +148 -031 010005 006 /// /// 03
180200 2803N 07958W 8354 01717 0194 +159 -114 015007 007 /// /// 03
$$
;

[brunota2003]

You got it, KWT?

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like convection is ready to make a comeback soon. looking at the visible loop, there appears to be an inflow channel setting up just south of the center where thunderstorms are starting to fire back up. Thats what it looks like to me, anyway, we'll see if Im right. Either way, it really does look like its wrapping up nicely.

[KWT]

Recon will be in the system fairly soon so we'll get a pretty good idea where we are with regards to this system in the next hour.

[brunota2003]

I got the images, for now



All of the blue marks are different flights that are in the air right now.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the models are confused with this system and the much larger but weak low the 98L ENE.. the interaction of the two complicates things....

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171812
AF304 01BBA INVEST HDOB 15 20110717
180230 2803N 07956W 8589 01480 0191 +174 -103 008008 009 /// /// 03
180300 2803N 07954W 8822 01248 0194 +181 -079 029007 008 /// /// 03
180330 2803N 07952W 9056 01026 0195 +196 -022 048009 011 /// /// 03
180400 2803N 07952W 9056 01026 0191 +205 +027 038012 014 /// /// 03
180430 2802N 07949W 9523 00586 0190 +211 +051 037014 015 /// /// 03
180500 2802N 07947W 9668 00450 0185 +219 +069 042016 016 /// /// 03
180530 2802N 07945W 9791 00339 0180 +229 +085 043016 016 /// /// 03
180600 2802N 07944W 9817 00315 0177 +230 +099 043016 016 /// /// 03
180630 2802N 07942W 9810 00320 0177 +230 +111 039015 016 /// /// 03
180700 2802N 07940W 9813 00319 0177 +230 +121 040015 016 /// /// 03
180730 2802N 07939W 9809 00321 0177 +229 +130 037014 015 /// /// 03
180800 2802N 07937W 9809 00321 0176 +230 +138 036014 015 /// /// 03
180830 2802N 07935W 9813 00317 0176 +230 +144 041015 016 /// /// 03
180900 2802N 07934W 9812 00319 0176 +230 +149 040016 016 /// /// 03
180930 2802N 07932W 9813 00316 0174 +230 +154 041015 016 /// /// 03
181000 2802N 07930W 9813 00316 0175 +228 +157 038015 016 /// /// 03
181030 2802N 07929W 9814 00315 0174 +229 +160 039015 016 /// /// 03
181100 2802N 07927W 9811 00317 0173 +230 +163 040016 017 023 000 00
181130 2802N 07925W 9813 00315 0172 +229 +166 041016 017 023 000 00
181200 2802N 07924W 9811 00315 0172 +230 +167 040015 015 021 001 03