Poll: When will the 2nd system form in the Atlantic Basin?

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm still thinking the first week of August. I honestly can't see us waiting until the end of August for the next storm to form.....

[dwsqos2]

Well, my July forecast was 0/0/0, and I'm still happy with that. But for the next storm's genesis date I'm not sure. But a potential tc in the EPAC and a non-tropical mess off the SE coast don't exactly scream active Atlantic season incoming.

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[Macrocane]

Well, my July forecast was 0/0/0, and I'm still happy with that. But for the next storm's genesis date I'm not sure. Another tc in the EPAC and a non-tropical mess off the SE coast doesn't exactly scream active Atlantic season incoming.

Neither did 2010, 2004, 1999, 1998 to mention a few and they ended up being active seasons, July is actually very inactive, seasons like 2005 and 2008 are the exception not the rule.

[dwsqos2]

My point had less to do with overall July activity, and more to do with the fact that there is a non-tropical low sitting off of Florida, while the EPAC may be producing another strong hurricane.

What did the seasons 1995, 1996, 2003, 1998, 2008, and 2005 all have in common? A TC forming east of 78 degrees west (east of 60 west actually) and south of 20 degrees north prior to July 31st. All except 2008 were hyperactive seasons as well, and '08 was close. I feel better about potential activity later in the season when the MDR actually produces prior to August. Yes, 2010 and 2004 are counterexamples, but ENSO state is different this season.

Even the non-hyperactive 2000 and 2001 seasons had tcs east of 60 degrees west prior to July 31st.

[KWT]

Well, my July forecast was 0/0/0, and I'm still happy with that. But for the next storm's genesis date I'm not sure. But a potential tc in the EPAC and a non-tropical mess off the SE coast don't exactly scream active Atlantic season incoming.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

clearly got some short term memory issues going on there...hmmm I seem to recall the exact same idea coming up (maybe not from you but from others) last year...and given we have neutral ENSO (probably overall every bit as favourable ENSO state as La Nina in WARM Atlantic conditions) and the 3rd warmest Atlantic ever at the moment (behind 2010 and 2010) thats screaming to me active season...of course who knows if that will happen eh

I won't make a call for July given its more than halfway through, but I'd be surprised if we don't get the odd storm or two.

Also as for the EPAc...remember June was record breaking...yet the Atlantic went on to produce 19NS...I doubt the same happens to that extent, but I think we'll be +14NS again.

Ps, and we have at LEAST TD2...probably Bret...

[ConvergenceZone]

Darn, I mean to say the 2nd storm would form today or tomorrow. I think my finger slipped and I typed the first week of August by mistake......

[Hurricaneman]

If I were to say in spicifics, The exact day would be July 27 at 5pm between bermuda and North Carolina so I voted last 10 days of July

Off by 10 days and 500 miles sse of where I thought it would form, poor guess

[Macrocane]

Ok, so 22 people got it right, the poll said 2nd system not 2nd tropical storm so I guess TD2 counts, right?

[cycloneye]

Ok, so 22 people got it right, the poll said 2nd system not 2nd tropical storm so I guess TD2 counts, right?

The question is about the second named storm, so no winners yet.

[Hurricaneman]

anyone who said july11-20 is right

[artist]

I did! (I finally got something right! )

[NDG]

So what did we win for those of us that picked this time period,

[KWT]

Well, my July forecast was 0/0/0, and I'm still happy with that. But for the next storm's genesis date I'm not sure. But a potential tc in the EPAC and a non-tropical mess off the SE coast don't exactly scream active Atlantic season incoming.

Well July now upto 2/0/0 and wouldn't rule out another right towards the end of the month.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well, my July forecast was 0/0/0, and I'm still happy with that. But for the next storm's genesis date I'm not sure. But a potential tc in the EPAC and a non-tropical mess off the SE coast don't exactly scream active Atlantic season incoming.

Well July now upto 2/0/0 and wouldn't rule out another right towards the end of the month.

Its 3/0/0 now so you were right. Still a week left for July to be over...

[psyclone]

good thing i didn't have anything riding on this poll or the july storms guess. a definite flop on my part!