WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.5N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.5N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 29.4N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 145.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140328Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAGGED EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 14/0532Z PGTW FIX AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 08W IS LOCATED
BENEATH A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING THE
SYSTEM WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS LOCATED TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND REMAINS WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEING TRACKING INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD AS IT MODIFIES THE STEERING RIDGE, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
RECEDE TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH, WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, TY 08W IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN KYUSHU. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 48, BEFORE NOTABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS. NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE IN RESPONSE TO AN EARLIER
WEAKENING AND RECEDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GFDN IS ALSO
DEPICTING A SHARP RE-CURVATURE, BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. EGRR
REMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER AND CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 IN ANTICIPATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE EAST
PHILIPPINE SEA, BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THIS
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, FAVORING A
TRACK SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 IN FAVOR OF A MORE
SOLID STR AND MARGINAL DCI. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS, THE FORECAST AT TAU 120 IS SLIGHTLY
LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS
UNTIL MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
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I'm sure we'll be in the clear again...Storms like to mess with our minds until they hit the force field that surrounds us.
