Possible GOM low this week?

[Stormcenter]

Lot's of convection settling into the North Central GOM today.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[tropicwatch]

It is awwwwfuuullly quiet

[GCANE]

Nothing to get excited about at this point, but a LL PV anomaly is building with some convection firing in about 20 knots of shear.

Surface pressure at 1011mb.

Buoy south of Mobile has winds gusting to about 22 knots.

[GCANE]

Firing a high rain-rate cell and building some cirrus.

Winds out of the west to the south of the convection.










http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=6&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=29&lon=-87

[Ivanhater]

Models are showing this area hanging around the Northern Gulf for quite some time...

12z Euro tries to develop it

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[HURAKAN]

vorticity has been increasing over the last 24 hours

[ronjon]

12Z Euro develops low pressure along the northern GOM from the system off the SC coast. It retrogrades it SW across Georgia down toward Mobile and then stalls it for several days off the coast. Might be something to watch as GFS shows a similar set up with vorticity retrograding W-SW from off the Georgia coast over this weekend.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[GCANE]

With the warm waters, I have a feeling this may surprise us.

[delta lady]

With the warm waters, I have a feeling this may surprise us.

What's up with the water temps around Louisiana? Something like 90 + degrees?

[ronjon]

Add CMC to the mix.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggemtropical850mbVortSLPGGEMLoop.html

[ROCK]

interesting track and could break the heat wave in the NGOM. Proximity to land will play an important part of something does develope....cant deny the waters are hottest in the basin so that makes it all the more interesting....

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


18z NOGAPS sees it...

[Weatherfreak000]

Interesting...maybe the season is finally revving up

[HeeBGBz]

Just went outside this morning. Totally overcast skies, not a speck of wind. We have a 70% chance of thunderstorms for today. The stillness in the air was a little creepy. In Biloxi.

[One Eye]

Looking at the southeast radar this morning, you can see a broad low pressure located in southeast Alabama. We need this to drop south in the warm waters of the gulf and provide some muchttp://www.intellicast.com/National/ ... mate=trueh needed rain. Lets look for the model trends and see.

[MGC]

Yea, looking at the radar returns, the low seems stationary near Dothan AL....need to watch it to see if it drifts south into the GOM......MGC

[bamajammer4eva]

Its upper level according to Tallahassee NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
953 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. A 1019 MB HIGH WAS
CENTERED OFF THE JERSEY COAST HELPING TO FUNNEL COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS SEPARATING A VERY RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
FROM THIS DRIER MORE MARITIME AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

UPPER AIR DATA AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. 00 UTC UPPER
AIR DATA AT 500 MB WAS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TALLAHASSEE AND BIRMINGHAM.
THIS LOW IS ALSO INDICATED WELL IN THE SATELLITE DATA AND RUC
ANALYSIS DATA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE LAND
AREAS.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting convection south of the FL. Panhandle this early morning. Let's see if it hangs around.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[ROCK]

the low is still inland according to sat....if it could drop south into the gulf it might be game on....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[Sanibel]

People don't realize if that thing were a few hundred miles further south the board would be busy.