Upcoming week - July 11-17

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Last week I predicted no tropical cyclone development, even with a disturbance heading into the western Caribbean, then towards Florida. That disturbance followed the path about exactly as I predicted, and also never developed. Overall, last week was not too challenging, but for nailing it down with no tropical cyclone development, my grade for last week is an A.

New week, new outlook time. Let’s go!

Current situation and models

All is currently quiet in the Atlantic Ocean. However, in the long range, the GFS and some other models are latching onto a possible development near Central America. It’s hard to make of what the Euro says for development there, but it definitely agrees on a nasty rain threat in the long term. Any development would probably take place at the earliest during the weekend, but it looks disorganized at best according to most models for now in that area.

Elsewhere, nothing else is being regarded for any time of development this upcoming week. The GFS is starting to see something eventually near the Bahamas, but that looks to be for a later time period.

Recent history

Since 1960, the following storms have developed from July 11-17:

Celia in 1966
A subtropical storm in 1974
Claudette in 1979
Ana in 1985
Chantal in 1995
Bill in 1997
Claudette in 1997
Danny in 1997
Arthur in 2002
Danny in 2003
Emily in 2005
An unnamed storm in 2006

That’s twelve new storms this upcoming week! However, only Bill, the two Danny’s, and Emily became hurricanes of this bunch. Also, do you notice something that I notice? The majority of these storms came from frontal lows and developed in rather subtropical latitudes. The subtropical storm in 1974, Ana, all three 1997 storms, Arthur, 2003 Danny, and the 2006 unnamed storm all developed in such places. Well, 2003 Danny at least formed from a tropical disturbance, but none of the remaining seven did. All of these storms also quickly took recurving paths, though 1997 Danny did run into land by virtue of developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Also, only Bill and the two Danny’s became hurricanes of this bunch.

That leaves Celia (not the famous 1970 one), Claudette, Chantal, and Emily as forming in the deep tropics in the satellite era – only four storms! Only Emily became a hurricane of this tiny bunch, though Chantal came close as it rounded Bermuda. All four of these developed further east. Celia and Chantal eventually recurved north, but Claudette and Emily continued west. Claudette may have stayed weak since it spent most of its time over land; yet, she never got going in the Gulf of Mexico either. And Emily missed those land areas…and only became the strongest July hurricane ever recorded, and remained very strong into the western Caribbean.

No significant developments occurred in the western Caribbean, however. Remember, that’s where we’re tending to look this upcoming week.

A few storms from the previous week were still ongoing. The ones still with significant things left to do were Abby in 1960, Bertha in 1996, Claudette in 2003, and Bertha in 2008. Abby and Claudette (2003) did reach the western Caribbean, and were briefly hurricanes in that area before weakening; Abby due to landfall, and Claudette due to high wind shear. Claudette did then eventually re-strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico before striking Texas as a C1 hurricane. The two Bertha’s stayed further north and eventually recurved, though the 1996 version of course didn’t do so before hitting North Carolina. These two storms were stronger than the two Caribbean storms at some point in their lives, becoming major hurricanes briefly.

So what does this all tell us?

Well, the western Caribbean is a little of an enigma. It’s never happened in the satellite era during this upcoming week that something has developed in that region; however, a couple of storms that later reached that area did strengthen there. Actually, when I think of this upcoming week in historical terms, a storm that develops this upcoming week is more often to come from a frontal system, and be a harbinger that a relatively quite hurricane season may lie ahead. With 2011 not being an El Nino year, and several of the other years being so, that doesn’t appear likely at all.

Still, with only three storms reaching the western Caribbean this upcoming year, all of them were hurricanes; in particular Emily. Of course, Emily was in the crazy 2005 season, was the strongest July storm ever known, and most likely an outlier. It’s hard to look past what the models are saying about that area, though even then it is long-range.

The Prediction

Well, it seems as if something might eventually get going in the western Caribbean. But can it really occur during this upcoming week? History says no, and a prediction is hard to make when the possible development is being predicted so long-range by most models. Confidence is definitely not the highest it’s ever been, but this is what I think: I predict no tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean or anywhere in the Atlantic this upcoming week. Confidence is 65%.

As a slight aside, I was in Newport Beach, California, this past weekend, and the waves were some of the highest I’ve ever seen, even for Southern California. It was quite possibly the roughest surf I’d ever seen. A couple locals who I talked to who like to cool off there were even afraid to jump in. I wonder, could this have come from Hurricane Calvin further south?

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

11 PM advisory is up, so it's time to evaluate.

Well, I correctly called for no development in the western Caribbean. Elsewhere, I didn’t see anything else that looked threatening for development, even according to reliable models. An Invest that went into Mexico early in the week came awfully close, but officially is not listed as having developed. Any more time over water, and this would not have been a good grade. However, Tropical Storm Bret has also just formed tonight off the coast of Florida. This one really snuck up on a lot of models for the time, and also me. Still, the damage is limited to a minimal tropical storm in the last hours of the week, and otherwise there were no other developments. Despite the Sunday damage, this week’s grade is still a B+.

A new week coming up in just a bit.

-Andrew92