Strong Wave approaching Islands

[cycloneye]

Trying to gain some latitude.

[Ivanhater]

Looking good

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS still sniffing out development of this wave once near the Yucatan

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian jumps on board

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ALTOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TheBurn]

[Ivanhater]

Interesting..looks like a surface low is forming

[HouTXmetro]

Tropics are heating up, looks MX bound again if the GFS/Canadian are correct

[Ivanhater]

If it was not for S.A, this looks to be organizing rather quickly...certainly a contender down the road...

[Vortex]

Nice look...

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Rgv20]

Looking at forecast for the 500mb pattern by around mid week, it could possibly support something developing in the Caribbean.

12zGFS Ensembles Wed 07/13


12zECMWF Ensembles Wed 07/13

[ROCK]

Looks that way Ivan...I would have tagged this guy 96L instead of the blob up in the GOM.....this one smells like it has potential down the road...

0Z GFS does nothing with it really.....

[ROCK]

current wind shear.....anticyclone over the area with light shear....hmmm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[South Texas Storms]

current wind shear.....anticyclone over the area with light shear....hmmm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Hmm I wonder why the models aren't doing much with it...
Maybe that will change in the coming days.

[Macrocane]

Hmm I wonder why the models aren't doing much with it...
Maybe that will change in the coming days.

The 12z runs of NOGAPS and the CMC were developing a tropical cyclone over Central America but I'm not sure if the origin is this wave, and we know that those two models are not the most reliable out there

[ROCK]

current wind shear.....anticyclone over the area with light shear....hmmm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Hmm I wonder why the models aren't doing much with it...
Maybe that will change in the coming days.

they are doing something with it but not the GFS...seems its being rather conservative,,,,even long range you dont see the phatom storms it used to spin up...maybe its been tweaked some this year....

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


0Z NOGAPS is liking it.....

[NDG]

Will have to wait until this wave starts gaining some latitude and emerges over the central/western Caribbean in a few days. With the ridge finding a home in the central US it means that the western Caribbean will have lower heights so it should gain some latitude. Not sure if it will get into the GOM, most likely into the Yucatan and into the BOC.

[wxman57]

I was hoping this system might bring some moisture to TX/LA around next weekend. However, looking at the projected mean winds aloft later next week, there's a big high building right over TX/LA and the NW Gulf. Flow is straight east to west in the SW and western Caribbean, across the Yucatan and into south Mexico. That would make it hard for the system to gain any latitude. If it was to develop, it would probably not get above 20N.