10% E.GOM - (Is invest 96L)

[TexasF6]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Doesn't look like much...

[LaBreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Doesn't look like much...

Isn't there too much sheer from the ULL already in the GOM for this system to develop into anything?

[stormreader]

True, it doesn't look like much. But I've seen seasons where even after a tropical event in June (which we just had) the tropics will go dead quiet for weeks. This doesn't seem to be the case. And with the forecast calling for an above average season, I just have a feeling that we may be on the verge of the tropics really beginning to pop (sooner rather than later). Very unscientific I know, but the Carribean has had a lot of convection for this time of year, and waves have been a little more distinct for this early in the season too (in my opinion). Unscientific, but I think we may be getting close.

[NDG]

There seems to be a broad area of low pressure trying to form near Key West or just SW of K.W., pressures are high, though. UL winds in the immediate area are around 25 knots from the SW, so not that terrible.
But no model support at this time.

[SouthFloridawx]

[ronjon]

Looks like weak low pressure is forming off the western tip of Cuba. Wind shear looks fairly stout due to the ULL south of La that seems to be slowly retrograding W-NW. 12Z CMC, ECM, NOGAPs, and NAM all show some sort of weak low pressure moving N-NE in the EGOM. Probably nothing to come of it due to the wind shear but something to watch. May be a big rain maker for the FL peninsula over the next 48-72 hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[LaBreeze]

I know that Florida can certainly use the rain - may they get it without any flooding situations.

[Sanibel]

It's had that feel around here the last few days.

The wave is in the Gulf but shear appears to be keeping it down.

[MGC]

All I see are outflow boundaries...no circulation. Would be nice to see that area of rain drift up in my direction and give me some rain in the Pass Christian Desert....MGC

[HurricaneBrain]

No development from this IMO.

[ROCK]

A lot of shear out there from the ULL....but it does look interesting on radar. MGC said it outflow boundaries all ove the place..bouncing into each other...

[flwxwatcher]

Looks like weak low pressure is forming off the western tip of Cuba. Wind shear looks fairly stout due to the ULL south of La that seems to be slowly retrograding W-NW. 12Z CMC, ECM, NOGAPs, and NAM all show some sort of weak low pressure moving N-NE in the EGOM. Probably nothing to come of it due to the wind shear but something to watch. May be a big rain maker for the FL peninsula over the next 48-72 hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Yes, following the 850 Vorticity on the EURO ,you can see it bringing it into the NE Gulf. Like you said, right now shear is high but it looks like according to the GFS it starts relaxing in about 48 hours. Agreed ,probably nothing more then some much needed rain for Florida but I remember Tropical Storm Claudette in 2009 formed in the NE Gulf and was a surprise system with no model support. ( one can dream)


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

[micktooth]

I have a family reunion in Destin next week. When do you think this wave will impact the Fl panhandle?

[NDG]

No real pressure drops and pressures remain somewhat high, but still a sharp trough of low pressure very noticeable.
Nice UL ridge now in place in the NW Caribbean, if there would had been a surface low it would have had a nice outflow band.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[NDG]

Slight pressure drops in the SE GOM this morning, 1-2 mb from 24 hrs ago.
I almost get the feeling of a slightly better surface cyclonic turning 100-150 miles WNW from Key West, but under a good 25-35 knt of upper level SW winds.

[tailgater]

Yeah it sure looks like it's trying to get it's act together this morning But that ULL has shifted even father east(closer) to this wantabe.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

[ronjon]

The 00Z CMC goes crazy with a 1004 mb low heading for the FL big bend region. Much weaker low development with GFS. 00Z Euro has a sub1010 mb low heading for the FL panhandle. Throw in the NAM and NOGAPs too for low development. Pretty good consensus on low pressure devlopment - Have to see how strong it can get with the wind shear. The ULL is forecast to retrograde SW but so far has not moved much from yesterday.

CMC

Euro

According to the GFS, this thing has a shot at developing if it stays closer to the west coast of FL. Wind shear drops to the 10-20 kts and is from the south - same general motion as the low pressure movement - so relative shear may be 5-10 kts less. This maybe why the CMC bombs it - as it stays close to the west coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Whatever comes of it at least the peninsula is getting a good soaking and maybe this will finally end the fires in SE GA.

[ronjon]

Pressure slowly falling at bouys in SE GOM. Winds now S-SW at Pulaski shoal west of Key West.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42003&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT